Over/Under Betting: How To Bet On Sports Totals at Non GamStop Bookmakers?

Many non-GamStop betting sites offer options and markets such as “Over/Under 1.5 Goals” or “Over/Under 3.5 Goals.”, as well as gamblingpro’s top UK bookies not on GamStop. Certainly, there are games where this is a good option.

If the undisputed Premier League leader, who also boasts several top-form attackers, hosts the bottom team in the league, which also enjoys a reputation as the league’s shooting gallery, the odds for “Over 2.5 Goals” would certainly be too low. “Over 3.5 Goals” might be more worthwhile for you in that case.

In any case, right at the beginning of the explanations, we have two important tips for you that you should always keep in mind.

• (1) The most common match result in the Premier League is 1:1. However, this does not mean that matches with fewer than 2.5 goals are the norm.
• (2) Statistically speaking, an average of between 2.7 and 3.2 goals are scored per Premier League season—always more than the 2.5 assumed here. However, this does not mean that more than 2.5 goals are the norm.

Roughly speaking, the distribution is that in the Premier League, more than 2.5 goals are scored in 55% of all games, while in 45% of all cases, fewer than 2.5 goals are scored in total.

The “Over / Under 2.5 Goals” Market in the Premier League – Facts About the Past Seasons

As you can see from these figures, the betting market is by no means a sure-fire success. We’ll now show you why you should play it more often.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Bets in the Premier League Are Safer Than Favorite Tips

The chances of winning in situations that either look particularly high-scoring or are likely to be very low-scoring are far greater than the treacherous favorite bets in the Premier League. Incidentally, we just showed you how to bet on favorites in one of our recent articles.

This certainty stems from the fact that all champions of recent Premier League seasons have never won more than 80% of all their games. For serial champions FC Bayern Munich, even in their most dominant seasons, the figure was only around 75%. The trend is more towards 70% than 80%. Let’s translate that into something tangible: even in their finest hours, Bayern win a maximum of three out of four league games. This means that anyone who bets on Bayern winning every week – which is certainly the biggest bet on the favorite that can be placed in the Premier League – should make more profit with three tickets than they lose with the one losing ticket. And with odds of around 1.10 to 1.30 in favorite situations, we don’t need any illustrations to underline that this is a losing proposition.

Now, of course, betting on favorites at non GamStop bookmakers becomes more interesting, especially as part of a Premier League combination betting strategy at non GamStop bookmakers. However, in our accompanying sports betting guide, we explained that more than three tips on a single bet are practically impossible to play seriously. From a mathematical perspective, it’s very easy to see why the “Over/Under 2.5 Goals” market is the much better option for this type of combination betting strategy. In the classic 3-way system, there is a win, a draw, and a loss. Three options, therefore, and nine possible combinations (3×3), only one of which can lead to a win. Theoretically, the chance would be 11.11% for each combination.

With “Over/Under 2.5 Goals” bets, however, there’s no option for the exact 2.5 goals to be scored. It can be either less or more than 2.5 goals. This means there are two options per game. A 3-way combination therefore creates six different combinations (3×2). And the theoretical odds of this winning are 16.67%. In addition, three bets on “Over/Under 2.5 Goals” combined yield significantly higher odds than three favorite picks in the classic 3-way system.

Of course, this calculation is flawed, as each possible combination has a different probability of occurring. However, anyone who learns to identify games in which goal bets are particularly attractive can place very profitable combination bets.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betting System at Non GamStop Bookmakers

What makes this market so playable at non GamStop bookmakers is the fact that it’s not just the goals scored by one team that are counted, but the combined total of both teams. So, the bet is considered a winner on any result, such as 2-1. However, on average (compare the statistics from recent seasons), three goals or more are only scored in around 55% of all matches. This, in turn, means that you need to consider a number of factors in advance as part of a strategic approach.

The most interesting games for a score of less than 2.5 goals are those in which the favorite has to play away. The home team must also have a solid to good defense, and the starting position in the table should be such that the favorite, with a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline, would prefer not to risk being countered by an overly offensive approach. Top teams can often live quite well with an away point, whereas in the middle of the season (leaving aside the relegation battle and/or the fight for European spots), neither team is likely to resort to force in this situation.

Conversely, betting on more than 2.5 goals isn’t necessarily a good bet in situations where the clear favorite is playing at home against a clear underdog. In these cases, the underdog is likely to go all out and try to snag a point. While this only works in around 15 to 20% of cases, real scoring festivities are rare. Often, they’re narrow 1-0 or 2-0 wins, which the press likes to label as “hard-fought victories.” You should probably stay away from such games, as the 2.5 goal threshold truly represents a magical barrier that can sometimes be exceeded very quickly and easily, but other times seems unattainable. Unless, of course, the teams involved in the match are struggling defensively and regularly concede unnecessary goals.

To understand this, you should always look at the most recent results. How did Team A and Team B perform recently? How many goals did they score? How many chances did they need to create? How many goals did they concede? How did these goals come about? A perfectly taken free kick that ultimately left no one to do anything about, while the defense was otherwise perfect? ​​Or were there major defensive errors because the defensive leader is currently injured?

Last but not least, you can’t ignore the math here either. Whether you want to place “Over/Under 2.5 Goals” bets in the Premier League as accumulator bets or as single bets, recent results can provide good indicators as to whether an action-packed game is on the cards. Ultimately, however, it’s important to clearly quantify the probability at non GamStop bookmakers. Then, you have to seriously and objectively calculate whether the probability of occurrence, in conjunction with the bookmaker’s advertised odds, produces a positive expected value or not.

Conclusion

In this article, we’ve shown you everything there is to know about the very popular “Over/Under 2.5 Goals” market in the Premier League at non GamStop bookmakers. You should always pay attention to the tips and strategy approach presented here. Newcomers, in particular, are prone to making false assumptions when considering that the most common result in the Premier League (40 in 306 matches in the 2018/19 season) is a 1-1 draw. The conclusion that this also means that most matches have fewer than 2.5 goals is incorrect, as the statistics in this article for the past eight seasons demonstrate.

We hope that the points presented here have been conclusive for you and that, with this knowledge in mind, you will view one of the most important betting markets in Premier League betting in a completely different light in the future.

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