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  1. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    Turnout was significantly lower in 2021 (as you’d expect for a byelection) so we should analyse gains and losses by vote share. Yes, the Tories gained approx. 3,000 votes, which doesn’t seem much, but that equates to a 23% increase in vote share, which is huge. Every other party suffered a...
  2. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    I don’t think this debunks Matt’s point but it’s worth observing that Corbyn-led Labour only held Hartlepool in 2019 because that idiot Richard Tice gobbled up 10,000 votes that otherwise would have (mostly) gone to the Tories. The 2021 result is basically the 2019 result without a split in the...
  3. Fompous Part

    End of the BBC?

    ^ I think that incentivises people to behave badly. There are already folk accessing the content but not paying for it; why make that easier? It might be an effective way of hurting the BBC via defunding, but at what cost morally? A conservative government shouldn’t incentivise bad behaviour.
  4. Fompous Part

    End of the BBC?

    I think what’s tricky here is that there is a very solid ‘first principles’ argument for scrapping the license fee, but conservatives also have reasons that clearly cross over into political vendetta. I think everyone (on both sides of the debate) should try and decouple those things. It may be...
  5. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    Labour erred by overpromising in their manifesto and then compounded the error by making expensive pledges (e.g. WASPI) after the manifesto and its costings had been published. Nevertheless, this election was not, first and foremost, a battle of competing economic visions. To the best of my...
  6. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    FWIW, that was the feedback I got while canvassing. To be fair, I wasn't canvassing for Labour and I was doing it in Scotland (where the Labour Party has pretty much been superseded by the SNP), but from what I've read Labour canvassers in England had similar experiences.
  7. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    Abertawe Your preference for next Labour leader?
  8. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    IndyRef1 happened because the SNP won a clear parliamentary majority in 2011, allowing them to get the relevant legislation through the Scottish Parliament. They won that majority because there was a massive Labour-to-SNP swing between May 2010 and May 2011. This is very well documented. The...
  9. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    Interesting
  10. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    Looking at the results in a bit more detail this morning. Favourite fact so far is Hugh Grant's 0% success rate. Every candidate he canvassed with lost. A close second is that every defector MP (i.e. the Change UK lot and anyone else who left their GE2017 party but didn't seek approval via a...
  11. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    ^ Her backstory might be the best thing she has going for her. Overcame a very inauspicious start (raised on a council estate by a single mother, left school with no qualifications, up the duff at 16) in a genuinely impressive way. I think any classist attack on her background, identity, accent...
  12. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    I favour the MMP variety of proportional representation (see here), which is used for the electing people to the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales. It maintains the idea of having a constituency MP (which is very important, IMO), but also allows for a more proportional allocation of...
  13. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    Probably no consolation whatsoever at this point, but it does seem that your efforts in Alyn and Deeside (LAB hold with majority of 213) made a positive difference. Too many people (on all sides) think politics involves little more than casting a vote and being a snarky bellend on Twitter...
  14. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    ^ Of course, logical consistency requires me to concede that, taking a UK wide view, approx. 45% voted for pro-Brexit parties and 55% voted for pro-Remain. I can’t pretend I’m happy about that. I say it after every election, but FPTP is a terrible system and needs to go.
  15. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    The SNP won 45% of the vote in Scotland. The Green Party (1%) are generally pro-independence, so let's be super generous and say the pro-independence vote was 46%. The remaining 54% voted for pro-Union parties. On every important metric (total votes, vote share, seats won, etc.) the SNP did...
  16. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    My 'based on a bad hunch, not proper psephology' prediction: the Tories will fall short by 8.
  17. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    FocalData did a MPR poll, too. CON: 337 LAB: 235 SNP: 41 LDM: 14 Remarkably similar.
  18. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    Latest YouGov MPR result: CON: 339 LAB: 231 SNP: 41 LDM: 15 Headline stat is a 20-seat swing from Tory to Labour since their last MPR poll on 27 November, with the predicted Tory majority now down to 28.
  19. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    The very least he deserved, IMO. I think the compulsory licence fee system is guaranteed until 2027. After that, the Beeb has to negotiate a new funding arrangement. I would like a voluntary subscription model, but nothing that radical going to happen during the next parliament, and I'm not...
  20. Fompous Part

    General Election 2019

    It was better than the ITV one as they weren’t interrupted as often and were given more time to develop their answers, but the content was predictable and didn’t deviate too far from what you imagined. I do wonder whether these debates – a very American thing which, if memory serves, we...

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