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Final match: Play-off permutations

CaliforniaGull

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Hi all,

New here, but long-time reader. Love seeing the Halifax fans fight each other, the Brotherhood willy waving, and all the banter regarding the league's best player Cal Roberts/Jordan Davies/Simon Denton. To complicate matters further, the league's best player is in fact Connor Lemonheigh-Evans.

To introduce myself: I'm a Torquay fan who lived most of my life in London, but moved to California just before the pandemic. It's been funny, as I didn't get to see many home games when I was in the UK, yet since my move out here I've probably seen the most Torquay matches in one season in my time supporting the club. Only missed a few due to time differences and TV rights, but I did get up at 4am to watch our Stockport match. (Not doing that tomorrow, sorry Alty.) So, I'm going to be a bit sad when everything goes back to normal. Can we make livestreaming a thing forever? (Also, 7am Saturday kick offs are great, highly recommend. Unless you lose.)

Anyway, another fact about me: I'm the kind of sad bastard that actually enjoys using Microsoft Excel. I've also had a bunch of time waiting for a Green Card. Put the two together, add the consequence to Torquay's missing out on the title*, and you get my attention on potential play off combinations.

Just because I'm getting practice explaining the complicated National League play-offs to curious "soccer" loving Americans:

5th plays 6th, with the winner playing Torquay
4th plays 7th, with the winner playing 3rd
Winners of those matches play one another for a spot in the Football League.

So, here's the deal, lads. Tomorrow, there are 729 potential outcomes among the various matches that will influence the ultimate finishing positions of the play-off contenders. We focus entirely on:

Bromley v Notts County
Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham
FC Halifax v Chesterfield
Hartlepool v Weymouth
Solihull Moors v Eastleigh
Yeovil v Stockport

Bear in mind I did not weight for likelihood in any given match, we're just looking at what could happen. So as far as I'm concerned Weymouth beating Hartlepool is as likely as the reverse, and the draw. Anything can happen in football - who predicted us drawing at home to Barnet last week? (I did, but I'm a Torquay fan who grew up in Barnet, sod's law applied.)

Anyway, here's your stats!

Finishing position chances:

1: Sutton, 100%
2: Torquay, 100%
3: Stockport, 78%; Hartlepool, 28%
4: Hartlepool, 67%; Stockport, 22%; Notts County, 11%
5: Notts County, 78%; Wrexham, 11%; Hartlepool, 11%
6: Wrexham, 37%; Chesterfield, 22%; Eastleigh, 13%; Bromley, 12%; Notts County, 11%; Halifax 5%
7: Wrexham, 29%; Chesterfield, 26%; Bromley, 15%; Eastleigh, 15%; Halifax, 15%

Right away, that's almost useless because Wrexham can't possibly finish 6th and 7th at the same time, but it gives an idea of how things can play out, and does illustrate the strength of Wrexham's position. Here, then, is an aggregate chance of any particular team just qualifying for a play off berth:

Torquay, 100%
Stockport, 100%
Hartlepool, 100%
Notts County, 100%
Wrexham, 77%
Chesterfield, 48%
Eastleigh, 28%
Bromley, 27%
Halifax, 20%

And here is the percentage chance of specific Eliminator matches:

Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 13.39%
Hartlepool v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Bromley: 5.74%
Stockport v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 4.92%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Notts County v Chesterfield: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Wrexham v Notts County: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Eastleigh: 4.37%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Chesterfield: 3.96%
Notts County v Chesterfield, Hartlepool v Wrexham: 3.69%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Wrexham: 3%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Halifax: 3%
Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Wrexham v Notts County: 2.87%
Stockport v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 2.19%
Stockport v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 2.19%

There's 26 other combinations, but they all have less than 2% chance, most less than 1%, but it's almost inevitable that the eventual combination will be one of those, in fact I can just imagine that the least likely scenario of Stockport v Eastleigh, Wrexham v Notts County at 0.28% (or 2 in 729) will be the one that ends up happening! And if it does, just remember how much time you wasted reading all this!

It seems highly likely, whatever the perms, that Torquay will get knocked out by a late Mark Ellis goal and my interest in all this lark dies for a few months.

Thank you, and good luck to your respective clubs this weekend.

(*Congratulations to Sutton.)

(**I am not good with maths or stats or anything, so it's possible much of this is total bollocks. I tried.)
 

ForzaCounty

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Well, yes, of course. We were all thinking it
 

Soup Ladle

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Hi all,

New here, but long-time reader. Love seeing the Halifax fans fight each other, the Brotherhood willy waving, and all the banter regarding the league's best player Cal Roberts/Jordan Davies/Simon Denton. To complicate matters further, the league's best player is in fact Connor Lemonheigh-Evans.

To introduce myself: I'm a Torquay fan who lived most of my life in London, but moved to California just before the pandemic. It's been funny, as I didn't get to see many home games when I was in the UK, yet since my move out here I've probably seen the most Torquay matches in one season in my time supporting the club. Only missed a few due to time differences and TV rights, but I did get up at 4am to watch our Stockport match. (Not doing that tomorrow, sorry Alty.) So, I'm going to be a bit sad when everything goes back to normal. Can we make livestreaming a thing forever? (Also, 7am Saturday kick offs are great, highly recommend. Unless you lose.)

Anyway, another fact about me: I'm the kind of sad bastard that actually enjoys using Microsoft Excel. I've also had a bunch of time waiting for a Green Card. Put the two together, add the consequence to Torquay's missing out on the title*, and you get my attention on potential play off combinations.

Just because I'm getting practice explaining the complicated National League play-offs to curious "soccer" loving Americans:

5th plays 6th, with the winner playing Torquay
4th plays 7th, with the winner playing 3rd
Winners of those matches play one another for a spot in the Football League.

So, here's the deal, lads. Tomorrow, there are 729 potential outcomes among the various matches that will influence the ultimate finishing positions of the play-off contenders. We focus entirely on:

Bromley v Notts County
Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham
FC Halifax v Chesterfield
Hartlepool v Weymouth
Solihull Moors v Eastleigh
Yeovil v Stockport

Bear in mind I did not weight for likelihood in any given match, we're just looking at what could happen. So as far as I'm concerned Weymouth beating Hartlepool is as likely as the reverse, and the draw. Anything can happen in football - who predicted us drawing at home to Barnet last week? (I did, but I'm a Torquay fan who grew up in Barnet, sod's law applied.)

Anyway, here's your stats!

Finishing position chances:

1: Sutton, 100%
2: Torquay, 100%
3: Stockport, 78%; Hartlepool, 28%
4: Hartlepool, 67%; Stockport, 22%; Notts County, 11%
5: Notts County, 78%; Wrexham, 11%; Hartlepool, 11%
6: Wrexham, 37%; Chesterfield, 22%; Eastleigh, 13%; Bromley, 12%; Notts County, 11%; Halifax 5%
7: Wrexham, 29%; Chesterfield, 26%; Bromley, 15%; Eastleigh, 15%; Halifax, 15%

Right away, that's almost useless because Wrexham can't possibly finish 6th and 7th at the same time, but it gives an idea of how things can play out, and does illustrate the strength of Wrexham's position. Here, then, is an aggregate chance of any particular team just qualifying for a play off berth:

Torquay, 100%
Stockport, 100%
Hartlepool, 100%
Notts County, 100%
Wrexham, 77%
Chesterfield, 48%
Eastleigh, 28%
Bromley, 27%
Halifax, 20%

And here is the percentage chance of specific Eliminator matches:

Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 13.39%
Hartlepool v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Bromley: 5.74%
Stockport v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 4.92%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Notts County v Chesterfield: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Wrexham v Notts County: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Eastleigh: 4.37%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Chesterfield: 3.96%
Notts County v Chesterfield, Hartlepool v Wrexham: 3.69%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Wrexham: 3%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Halifax: 3%
Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Wrexham v Notts County: 2.87%
Stockport v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 2.19%
Stockport v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 2.19%

There's 26 other combinations, but they all have less than 2% chance, most less than 1%, but it's almost inevitable that the eventual combination will be one of those, in fact I can just imagine that the least likely scenario of Stockport v Eastleigh, Wrexham v Notts County at 0.28% (or 2 in 729) will be the one that ends up happening! And if it does, just remember how much time you wasted reading all this!

It seems highly likely, whatever the perms, that Torquay will get knocked out by a late Mark Ellis goal and my interest in all this lark dies for a few months.

Thank you, and good luck to your respective clubs this weekend.

(*Congratulations to Sutton.)

(**I am not good with maths or stats or anything, so it's possible much of this is total bollocks. I tried.)

Jesus man you've hurt my eyes
 

karlready

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Thanks for the post, good read. Welcome to the forum.
 

Atavistic

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I've been trying to wrap my head around all the permutations as well, so this makes for very interesting and insightful reading, even if it's still a hell of a lot to take in.

The main thing I can gather, based on the possible fixtures listed, is that only one of Bromley, Chesterfield, Eastleigh or Halifax can realistically qualify for the play-offs and that Hartlepool, Notts County and Wrexham are almost certain to be three of the four teams competing in the first round of play-off games.
 

Fyldefan

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Hi all,

New here, but long-time reader. Love seeing the Halifax fans fight each other, the Brotherhood willy waving, and all the banter regarding the league's best player Cal Roberts/Jordan Davies/Simon Denton. To complicate matters further, the league's best player is in fact Connor Lemonheigh-Evans.

To introduce myself: I'm a Torquay fan who lived most of my life in London, but moved to California just before the pandemic. It's been funny, as I didn't get to see many home games when I was in the UK, yet since my move out here I've probably seen the most Torquay matches in one season in my time supporting the club. Only missed a few due to time differences and TV rights, but I did get up at 4am to watch our Stockport match. (Not doing that tomorrow, sorry Alty.) So, I'm going to be a bit sad when everything goes back to normal. Can we make livestreaming a thing forever? (Also, 7am Saturday kick offs are great, highly recommend. Unless you lose.)

Anyway, another fact about me: I'm the kind of sad bastard that actually enjoys using Microsoft Excel. I've also had a bunch of time waiting for a Green Card. Put the two together, add the consequence to Torquay's missing out on the title*, and you get my attention on potential play off combinations.

Just because I'm getting practice explaining the complicated National League play-offs to curious "soccer" loving Americans:

5th plays 6th, with the winner playing Torquay
4th plays 7th, with the winner playing 3rd
Winners of those matches play one another for a spot in the Football League.

So, here's the deal, lads. Tomorrow, there are 729 potential outcomes among the various matches that will influence the ultimate finishing positions of the play-off contenders. We focus entirely on:

Bromley v Notts County
Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham
FC Halifax v Chesterfield
Hartlepool v Weymouth
Solihull Moors v Eastleigh
Yeovil v Stockport

Bear in mind I did not weight for likelihood in any given match, we're just looking at what could happen. So as far as I'm concerned Weymouth beating Hartlepool is as likely as the reverse, and the draw. Anything can happen in football - who predicted us drawing at home to Barnet last week? (I did, but I'm a Torquay fan who grew up in Barnet, sod's law applied.)

Anyway, here's your stats!

Finishing position chances:

1: Sutton, 100%
2: Torquay, 100%
3: Stockport, 78%; Hartlepool, 28%
4: Hartlepool, 67%; Stockport, 22%; Notts County, 11%
5: Notts County, 78%; Wrexham, 11%; Hartlepool, 11%
6: Wrexham, 37%; Chesterfield, 22%; Eastleigh, 13%; Bromley, 12%; Notts County, 11%; Halifax 5%
7: Wrexham, 29%; Chesterfield, 26%; Bromley, 15%; Eastleigh, 15%; Halifax, 15%

Right away, that's almost useless because Wrexham can't possibly finish 6th and 7th at the same time, but it gives an idea of how things can play out, and does illustrate the strength of Wrexham's position. Here, then, is an aggregate chance of any particular team just qualifying for a play off berth:

Torquay, 100%
Stockport, 100%
Hartlepool, 100%
Notts County, 100%
Wrexham, 77%
Chesterfield, 48%
Eastleigh, 28%
Bromley, 27%
Halifax, 20%

And here is the percentage chance of specific Eliminator matches:

Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 13.39%
Hartlepool v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Bromley: 5.74%
Stockport v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 4.92%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Notts County v Chesterfield: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Wrexham v Notts County: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Eastleigh: 4.37%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Chesterfield: 3.96%
Notts County v Chesterfield, Hartlepool v Wrexham: 3.69%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Wrexham: 3%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Halifax: 3%
Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Wrexham v Notts County: 2.87%
Stockport v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 2.19%
Stockport v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 2.19%

There's 26 other combinations, but they all have less than 2% chance, most less than 1%, but it's almost inevitable that the eventual combination will be one of those, in fact I can just imagine that the least likely scenario of Stockport v Eastleigh, Wrexham v Notts County at 0.28% (or 2 in 729) will be the one that ends up happening! And if it does, just remember how much time you wasted reading all this!

It seems highly likely, whatever the perms, that Torquay will get knocked out by a late Mark Ellis goal and my interest in all this lark dies for a few months.

Thank you, and good luck to your respective clubs this weekend.

(*Congratulations to Sutton.)

(**I am not good with maths or stats or anything, so it's possible much of this is total bollocks. I tried.)

Are you a crip or a blood?
 

Chief Rocka

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I haven’t even read the OP yet but damn I gotta appreciate the effort put in.

:bow:
 

CaliforniaGull

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I've been trying to wrap my head around all the permutations as well, so this makes for very interesting and insightful reading, even if it's still a hell of a lot to take in.

The main thing I can gather, based on the possible fixtures listed, is that only one of Bromley, Chesterfield, Eastleigh or Halifax can realistically qualify for the play-offs and that Hartlepool, Notts County and Wrexham are almost certain to be three of the four teams competing in the first round of play-off games.
You're right that those four are likely competing for the last spot, but there are various feasible ways to get two of them in the play offs at the same time. Part of my calculations take into account the goal difference, which favours Wrexham and Chesterfield to the point where I've brute forced decided they'd triumph in a points tie over Bromley or Eastleigh or Halifax. (There is no situation where Halifax points tie with Chesterfield, but even B2TF will admit Halifax aren't beating Chesterfield 10-0, in the event of a points tie with Wrexham. If that happened, I'd like to think there might be peace among Halifax fans for generations.)

However, in the event of Bromley and Eastleigh both winning, I can't really separate them, so there are a few scenarios where it's either/or (I split those between each for my original post, diluting their appearance in the list) and even some scenarios where both sneak in 6th and 7th together. (Both win, Wrexham draw/lose, Chesterfield-Halifax draw, all else irrelevant: 4.92% of all permutations.)

In other words, Wrexham fans beware the folly of playing for the draw! Keatesball be damned.
 

Fyldefan

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You're right that those four are likely competing for the last spot, but there are various feasible ways to get two of them in the play offs at the same time. Part of my calculations take into account the goal difference, which favours Wrexham and Chesterfield to the point where I've brute forced decided they'd triumph in a points tie over Bromley or Eastleigh or Halifax. (There is no situation where Halifax points tie with Chesterfield, but even B2TF will admit Halifax aren't beating Chesterfield 10-0, in the event of a points tie with Wrexham. If that happened, I'd like to think there might be peace among Halifax fans for generations.)

However, in the event of Bromley and Eastleigh both winning, I can't really separate them, so there are a few scenarios where it's either/or (I split those between each for my original post, diluting their appearance in the list) and even some scenarios where both sneak in 6th and 7th together. (Both win, Wrexham draw/lose, Chesterfield-Halifax draw, all else irrelevant: 4.92% of all permutations.)

In other words, Wrexham fans beware the folly of playing for the draw! Keatesball be damned.

It’s about time we had somebody on this forum that’s at a similar intelligence level to me. It gets draining having conversations with the dunces (master d, beebot and BT2F) every weekend. I find myself having to dumb it down for them. Welcome to the forum
 

#Beebot

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It’s about time we had somebody on this forum that’s at a similar intelligence level to me. It gets draining having conversations with the dunces (master d, beebot and BT2F) every weekend. I find myself having to dumb it down for them. Welcome to the forum

Oh dear.
 

Magpie Mike

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Hi all,

New here, but long-time reader. Love seeing the Halifax fans fight each other, the Brotherhood willy waving, and all the banter regarding the league's best player Cal Roberts/Jordan Davies/Simon Denton. To complicate matters further, the league's best player is in fact Connor Lemonheigh-Evans.

To introduce myself: I'm a Torquay fan who lived most of my life in London, but moved to California just before the pandemic. It's been funny, as I didn't get to see many home games when I was in the UK, yet since my move out here I've probably seen the most Torquay matches in one season in my time supporting the club. Only missed a few due to time differences and TV rights, but I did get up at 4am to watch our Stockport match. (Not doing that tomorrow, sorry Alty.) So, I'm going to be a bit sad when everything goes back to normal. Can we make livestreaming a thing forever? (Also, 7am Saturday kick offs are great, highly recommend. Unless you lose.)

Anyway, another fact about me: I'm the kind of sad bastard that actually enjoys using Microsoft Excel. I've also had a bunch of time waiting for a Green Card. Put the two together, add the consequence to Torquay's missing out on the title*, and you get my attention on potential play off combinations.

Just because I'm getting practice explaining the complicated National League play-offs to curious "soccer" loving Americans:

5th plays 6th, with the winner playing Torquay
4th plays 7th, with the winner playing 3rd
Winners of those matches play one another for a spot in the Football League.

So, here's the deal, lads. Tomorrow, there are 729 potential outcomes among the various matches that will influence the ultimate finishing positions of the play-off contenders. We focus entirely on:

Bromley v Notts County
Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham
FC Halifax v Chesterfield
Hartlepool v Weymouth
Solihull Moors v Eastleigh
Yeovil v Stockport

Bear in mind I did not weight for likelihood in any given match, we're just looking at what could happen. So as far as I'm concerned Weymouth beating Hartlepool is as likely as the reverse, and the draw. Anything can happen in football - who predicted us drawing at home to Barnet last week? (I did, but I'm a Torquay fan who grew up in Barnet, sod's law applied.)

Anyway, here's your stats!

Finishing position chances:

1: Sutton, 100%
2: Torquay, 100%
3: Stockport, 78%; Hartlepool, 28%
4: Hartlepool, 67%; Stockport, 22%; Notts County, 11%
5: Notts County, 78%; Wrexham, 11%; Hartlepool, 11%
6: Wrexham, 37%; Chesterfield, 22%; Eastleigh, 13%; Bromley, 12%; Notts County, 11%; Halifax 5%
7: Wrexham, 29%; Chesterfield, 26%; Bromley, 15%; Eastleigh, 15%; Halifax, 15%

Right away, that's almost useless because Wrexham can't possibly finish 6th and 7th at the same time, but it gives an idea of how things can play out, and does illustrate the strength of Wrexham's position. Here, then, is an aggregate chance of any particular team just qualifying for a play off berth:

Torquay, 100%
Stockport, 100%
Hartlepool, 100%
Notts County, 100%
Wrexham, 77%
Chesterfield, 48%
Eastleigh, 28%
Bromley, 27%
Halifax, 20%

And here is the percentage chance of specific Eliminator matches:

Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 13.39%
Hartlepool v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Bromley: 5.74%
Stockport v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 4.92%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Notts County v Chesterfield: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Wrexham v Notts County: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Eastleigh: 4.37%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Chesterfield: 3.96%
Notts County v Chesterfield, Hartlepool v Wrexham: 3.69%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Wrexham: 3%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Halifax: 3%
Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Wrexham v Notts County: 2.87%
Stockport v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 2.19%
Stockport v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 2.19%

There's 26 other combinations, but they all have less than 2% chance, most less than 1%, but it's almost inevitable that the eventual combination will be one of those, in fact I can just imagine that the least likely scenario of Stockport v Eastleigh, Wrexham v Notts County at 0.28% (or 2 in 729) will be the one that ends up happening! And if it does, just remember how much time you wasted reading all this!

It seems highly likely, whatever the perms, that Torquay will get knocked out by a late Mark Ellis goal and my interest in all this lark dies for a few months.

Thank you, and good luck to your respective clubs this weekend.

(*Congratulations to Sutton.)

(**I am not good with maths or stats or anything, so it's possible much of this is total bollocks. I tried.)
You get a like from me just for the sheer effort put into this.
I hope you get yourself a life
soon mate.
 

BlackHaddock

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Hi CaliforniaGull,

My daughter, son-in-law and granddaughters live in Orange County, where are you in Cali? It's bloody huge. They love it out there, hope it works out for you too; the Green Card procedure can take years though, so don't hold your breath while waiting for it.

Thanks for the original post, don't care who goes up with Sutton really although I'd like a weekend in Torquay next season if possible, sorry.
 

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