Promotion odds

[FGR Stroud]

SkyBet odds Monday 31st May

Frankly I'm surprised. The bookies top three I agree with but I'd have Derby top of list.
They ended last season in fairly decent form, around mid of form table (8 games) and will have the most support at every game.
And locally the bookies think Cheltenham are in greater danger of relegation than FGR! I don't believe so.

 

[SVH]

These odds are nonsense at this time of year.

 

[WhiteRussian]

Lazy odds that mean nothing until we know whos still at the clubs. We could be without a manager, no Twine and Darling heading for mid table obscurity. Who knows.

 

[Essex2Wessex]

Yeah, these numbers are clearly meaningless at this stage

 

[Devon_Lad]

The odds will be much better in about a months time, at the moment they're just random, not giving anyone too long and giving everyone pretty much shorter odds than when the season will start, they just wanna start collecting money.

 

[kieran_vale]

Aye anyone who touches any of these right now just proves a fool and their money are easily parted as they are utterly meaningless. We haven’t even done our retained list yet. In the case of Derby it’s not even totally guaranteed they get to start the season until the takeover is completed.

 

[Soz]

Lazy odds is how you can beat a bookie to be fair.

That being said, I do hate promotion outright betting.

 

[Devon_Lad]

Lazy odds is how you can beat a bookie to be fair.

That being said, I do hate promotion outright betting.

You don't beat the bookies on short odds, all of these will be the same or longer come the start of the season

 

[Super_horns]

Will Derby even exist?

Gone quiet on that front...

 

[Soz]

You don't beat the bookies on short odds, all of these will be the same or longer come the start of the season

Tell that to my short price side hustle. Profitable for 5 years straight.

I do give a lot back on football though which is why they've kept me open I think

 

[leedsvaliant]

Generally bookies just look at who has the most support or has been in the top division most recently at this point. They generally always tip Bradford to do well in league 2. Classic lack of knowledge of how lower league football works.

I expect those bigger teams to be up there but there's always a surprise package or two.

 

[valefan16]

Be interesting to see how we do, it’s a somewhat different Port Vale to previous spells in league one with no basket case ownership and plenty of investment. Hopefully DC and Flitcroft can work some decent deals.

I don’t think we will challenge the top end, although you can never rule (Wycombe for eg) it out but we should be solid enough and mid table would be more than acceptable next season.

 

[BarrieOwl]

SkyBet odds Monday 31st May
View attachment 17269
View attachment 17270
Frankly I'm surprised. The bookies top three I agree with but I'd have Derby top of list.
They ended last season in fairly decent form, around mid of form table (8 games) and will have the most support at every game.
And locally the bookies think Cheltenham are in greater danger of relegation than FGR! I don't believe so.

Derby have 5 contracted players as it stands and still haven't had their takeover confirmed, they will be subject to transfer restrictions too.

 

[leedsvaliant]

It does feel different this time. Apart from the spending power of some of the aforementioned bigger clubs, there's also a lot of average in the league. We'll also have a much better financial standing, far more so than the last time we got promoted. Our owner's business has significantly increased during Covid and we've made a fortune from increased attendances, playoffs and merchandise. We've also just finished paying off the installments to our previous owner, so we've freed up a lot of money.

Combined with a real feelgood factor, a very popular and good manager and a highly professional backroom setup, we'll attract players that we previously couldn't.

I may look foolish, but the 5 year plan appears to be to get into the championship and then look to increase investment. Carol has become synonymous with good ownership and good PR , so I can see people wanting to work with her.

Much smaller clubs have done it. Brentford and Bournemouth were much like us before investment, so why not?

 

[Greenacres]

Derby have 5 contracted players as it stands and still haven't had their takeover confirmed, they will be subject to transfer restrictions too.

Swindon were in a similar position before the start of last season, they were even playing youth team players in pre-season friendlies, but managed to get their house in order and made it to the play-offs.

 

[Marked Ox]

It does feel different this time. Apart from the spending power of some of the aforementioned bigger clubs, there's also a lot of average in the league. We'll also have a much better financial standing, far more so than the last time we got promoted. Our owner's business has significantly increased during Covid and we've made a fortune from increased attendances, playoffs and merchandise. We've also just finished paying off the installments to our previous owner, so we've freed up a lot of money.

Combined with a real feelgood factor, a very popular and good manager and a highly professional backroom setup, we'll attract players that we previously couldn't.

I may look foolish, but the 5 year plan appears to be to get into the championship and then look to increase investment. Carol has become synonymous with good ownership and good PR , so I can see people wanting to work with her.

Much smaller clubs have done it. Brentford and Bournemouth were much like us before investment, so why not?

Ah, the fabled 5 year plan. Every new owner's go to catchphrase unless you are Firoz Kassam and then it is "I'm going to take you on a journey"...

 

[Essex2Wessex]

My view is that Derby, however much shit they are in and have been in, are really ultimately too big to fail.

Compare what happened with Bolton to what happened with Bury at around the same time, or Macc a bit later. Something will come through. (While on a smaller scale, I agree that Swindon kind of demonstrate this too)

 

[Bone Idle]

Be interesting to see how we do, it’s a somewhat different Port Vale to previous spells in league one with no basket case ownership and plenty of investment. Hopefully DC and Flitcroft can work some decent deals.

I don’t think we will challenge the top end, although you can never rule (Wycombe for eg) it out but we should be solid enough and mid table would be more than acceptable next season.

Rumour here is Telford is on his way to you after being spotted amongst your fans at the play off final.

 

[kieran_vale]

Rumour here is Telford is on his way to you after being spotted amongst your fans at the play off final.

He was definitely in among the Vale fans on Saturday though he was based in S-O-T for a while so may have just been a day out with friends. We’ll see as under DC and Flitcroft we’ve become very secretive on all transfer and contract business.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Rumour here is Telford is on his way to you after being spotted amongst your fans at the play off final.

Surprising as Darrell Clarke signed him on loan for us and hardly played him

 

[kieran_vale]

Surprising as Darrell Clarke signed him on loan for us and hardly played him

To be fair that was a while ago and he has clearly developed since at Newport. Almost like signing a different player in reality.

Will Derby even exist?

Gone quiet on that front...

Last thing I saw on that there was some conjecture over Pride Park and whether they’d even use it as was suggested they might even use the shithole down the road from us if so. I expect they’ll still exist, these things have a habit of going down to the wire. Same happened with Bolton if I remember rightly.

 

[Gassy]

We all know the odds are a joke, but what is even more silly is the actual rates you’re getting. 11/1 for us to get promoted is so ridiculous it’s not even worth a fun fiver bet.

In reality, it’s more like 250/1. Honestly, we’d probably have better odds to beat Ipswich away than getting promoted. But then, people wouldn’t bet on it I guess.

 

[mozzavale]

To be fair Aaron Ramsdale was in the Vale end too. . Saw him in the Green Man before the match.

 

[valefan16]

It does feel different this time. Apart from the spending power of some of the aforementioned bigger clubs, there's also a lot of average in the league. We'll also have a much better financial standing, far more so than the last time we got promoted. Our owner's business has significantly increased during Covid and we've made a fortune from increased attendances, playoffs and merchandise. We've also just finished paying off the installments to our previous owner, so we've freed up a lot of money.

Combined with a real feelgood factor, a very popular and good manager and a highly professional backroom setup, we'll attract players that we previously couldn't.

I may look foolish, but the 5 year plan appears to be to get into the championship and then look to increase investment. Carol has become synonymous with good ownership and good PR , so I can see people wanting to work with her.

Much smaller clubs have done it. Brentford and Bournemouth were much like us before investment, so why not?

To be fair Bournemouth and Brentford spent a hell of a lot. We are on a positive journey, one we’ve dreamt about being on for years whilst watching us struggle to stay in the EFL, lowest finishes in our history, getting dicked 6-2 by Lincoln in our own backyard.

Just mainly chuffed those kind of days are behind us and the future is bright again.

Championship is a huge step up, Wycombe and Burton did it under good ownership rather than big money but it’s tough, you’ve gone from our past experiences here having the odd big club drop in such as Sheffield Wednesday, Forest, Leeds or Wolves for the short term to having 5 or 6 huge clubs all at once.

We’ve got great ownership, decent investment and a club on the up but let’s just enjoy the ride and see what happens in terms of progress.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Ah, the fabled 5 year plan. Every new owner's go to catchphrase unless you are Firoz Kassam and then it is "I'm going to take you on a journey"...

I'm normally one to say these sort of statements are bollocks but 1) Carol runs a highly successful business and most businesses have a 5 year plan and
2) She's not a Billy Bullshitter or dreamer....it will all be laid out sensibly and with a budget.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Rumour here is Telford is on his way to you after being spotted amongst your fans at the play off final.

Feels like a bit of a one season wonder who requires others to do the hard work for him. I'd be surprised if that happened.

 

[Dinmiru]

We definitely have good momentum I think we had the most points in the league during the second half of the season but couldn't make up the ground like we did when we did the same in our L2 season that's the difference is that you can't play catch up in this league. Who knows who's going to sign for who & what have you but with us we did a lot of our business last Jan which is why we went on our good run so hopefully them lads have fully gelled which is a bit of a 6 month head start over the teams who do plan on bringing in lots of players during the summer. Our team before Jan put in some disgraceful away performances in the crap weather but we looked far more solid & organized out of possession to go with some great football when in possession. At the moment I think we'll get play offs but with a few more right bodies then who knows? That being said if you're not on your game you'll be humbled quickly, look at Ipswich last season who everybody tipped to blitz the league with all the new signings then next minute Cook's in non league. We humbled Sunderland 6-0 then went to Burton not long after & got humiliated by conceding 3 set piece goals in a 5 minute spell but that's the beauty of football!

 

[WhiteRussian]

I'm normally one to say these sort of statements are bollocks but 1) Carol runs a highly successful business and most businesses have a 5 year plan and
2) She's not a Billy Bullshitter or dreamer....it will all be laid out sensibly and with a budget.

So does Winkey but our five year plan is slowly becomming a 10+ year plan. Saying that, we are happily solvent which is just about the best thing a lower league club without stupidly rich benefactors can be nowadays.

 

[Marked Ox]

I'm normally one to say these sort of statements are bollocks but 1) Carol runs a highly successful business and most businesses have a 5 year plan and
2) She's not a Billy Bullshitter or dreamer....it will all be laid out sensibly and with a budget.

It wasn't a dig in anyway, just heard it so many times with ourselves and others.

 

[masi51]

You don't beat the bookies on short odds, all of these will be the same or longer come the start of the season

14/1 for promotion and 50/1 for the league............fill your boots