The Playoffs

WhiteRussian

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Well after todays results, Bolton fall by the wayside. Have Ipswich? 5 points off 6th having played more than the 3 teams directly above them. Only 8 matches left for them.
 

Tom_ITFC

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Well after todays results, Bolton fall by the wayside. Have Ipswich? 5 points off 6th having played more than the 3 teams directly above them. Only 8 matches left for them.

I suspect so. We’ve been holding on for so long now, chasing down the pack with our good form (now includes 8 clean sheets in 9!) but everyone else keeps winning so if we drop any points it’s going to cost us!

Today’s offside goal was flagged offside for Woolfenden who didn’t touch the ball during the freekick but was close to Burgess so was maybe the correct decision…

Either way, we’ve got Oxford and Plymouth next which HAVE to be wins now in my opinion.

I’m trying to decide whether I want Plymouth or Portsmouth to win in the week or whether a draw is best?
 

BarrieOwl

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I suspect so. We’ve been holding on for so long now, chasing down the pack with our good form (now includes 8 clean sheets in 9!) but everyone else keeps winning so if we drop any points it’s going to cost us!

Today’s offside goal was flagged offside for Woolfenden who didn’t touch the ball during the freekick but was close to Burgess so was maybe the correct decision…

Either way, we’ve got Oxford and Plymouth next which HAVE to be wins now in my opinion.

I’m trying to decide whether I want Plymouth or Portsmouth to win in the week or whether a draw is best?
From where you were when Cook got the chop you've given it a good go, the frustration must be the early part of the season when you dropped points easily, much like us, but gives you expectations for next season.
 

WhiteRussian

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I’m trying to decide whether I want Plymouth or Portsmouth to win in the week or whether a draw is best?
From your point of view it's got to be a Portsmouth win. They don't have the points on the table and could still screw up their games in hand. Plymouth win tuesday they are 8 points ahead, pretty much out of sight of you which would leave you fighting for one place with 3 other clubs. It's a tough ask.
 

K-Win

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From your point of view it's got to be a Portsmouth win. They don't have the points on the table and could still screw up their games in hand.
I'd agree. We'll be cramming our last 8 games into 25 days. We've a small squad and it's hard to see us getting enough wins given the circumstances.
 

TractorBoys

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Oxford and Plymouth next then. Our season will either be over or we'll be bang in the mix with 6 games to go. Nothing short of 6 points will do.
 

K-Win

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My look at the last 10 completed seasons (on a different thread) showed that 75 points usually guarantees a play-off place. However, this season is clearly a bit of a freak and it looks like you may need 80 or so points to just about scrape in.

So I decided to go all the way back to 1988/89 which is the first season that the third tier had 24 teams and places 3 to 6 got in the playoffs. So over 30 seasons (excluding 1990/91, 1994/95 - restructuring and 2019/20 - Covid):
  • Mean average points to finish in 6th place = 72.53
  • Mode and median points to finish 6th = 73
  • Highest number of points required = 81 (1999/00 - Tranmere came 7th with 80 and 2002/03 - Bristol Rovers came 7th with 80)
  • Lowest number of points required = 66 (2014/15 - Chesterfield)
So surprisingly there have been a couple of cases where a club has missed out with 80 points. Both of those seasons were very different to the current one though, in that there was a huge gap to the 8th placed team - 15 points both times!

What it shows is that there is a pretty big divide between the top 11 and the bottom 13 teams. A team in the bottom half beating a team in the top half has become pretty rare recently. Obviously budgets are playing a big part in what's happening. I think Plymouth may be the only club bucking the trend a bit?

All this is small consolation to those of us on the fringes. We've all had good runs without actually moving up the table. We're running out of games now and I'd like to request that the teams above us stop winning for a bit. It's not fair.
 

SMH

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Fair play to Plymouth, that win at Bolton was huge. I’m expecting a large green army at the DW for our final home game of the season as that could be a massive one for both teams.
 

Robie

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Obviously budgets are playing a big part in what's happening. I think Plymouth may be the only club bucking the trend a bit?
Charlton and Ipswich also.
 

Boletus Edulis

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Fair play to Plymouth, that win at Bolton was huge. I’m expecting a large green army at the DW for our final home game of the season as that could be a massive one for both teams.
Just talking about that to one of my lads a few minutes ago. He is up for Burton and Wycombe, but a bit unsure of Wigan. I think he found Bolyon a long long journey. My mate asked him yesterday what time he got up so we could get the coach. His reply: “I don’t know and don’t remember actually getting up, but I was vaguely aware of mum and dad shouting at me.”

We have some family celebrations that we’d need to move around a bit that weekend, but my feeling is if it as important as you post suggests I’ll be able to persuade him.

We had 1,356 yesterday if it is important I bet we have more at yours.
 

Railway Blue

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You don't need to sign your posts fella, we've seen enough of em to know you're a fucking imbecile.
Did I not make myself clear. You are the imbecile and a person of limited vocabulary.
 

BarrieOwl

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Did I not make myself clear. You are the imbecile and a person of limited vocabulary.
I have a wealth of vocabulary, I just choose not to waste it on the likes of you.
 

Railway Blue

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You really are a pleasant so and so. Definately low IQ.

Goodbye and good luck with your underachieving team.
 

WhiteRussian

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Well, I think that's Rotherham and Wigan pretty much got the autos. Rotherham 7 points ahead having played the same as us. WIgan 3 points ahead plus still 2 games in hand. I just can't see either of them capitulating that lead.

So playoffs - Us (hopefully), then any combination of 3 from 5 now. I don't see Ipswich making up the ground.

There are still 24+ points for each team to play for though. Stranger things have happened.
 

GeneralLee

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Well, I think that's Rotherham and Wigan pretty much got the autos. Rotherham 7 points ahead having played the same as us. WIgan 3 points ahead plus still 2 games in hand. I just can't see either of them capitulating that lead.

So playoffs - Us (hopefully), then any combination of 3 from 5 now. I don't see Ipswich making up the ground.

There are still 24+ points for each team to play for though. Stranger things have happened.
I’ve felt Wigan and Rotherham have been up for a while now. Similarly MK have been sure fire for some time and will likely finish third.

Playoffs will be (more than likely) determined this weekend. I don’t see any of the sides capitulating barring possibly one. Everyone is flying just at the right time.
 

K-Win

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I'd say that our deserved defeat at Plymouth on Tuesday has probably knocked us out of contention.

There have been a couple of exceptions (Wycombe away and Oxford at home) where we've managed to beat one of the better sides, but generally we've been found wanting against the top teams this season. I think I've still got us hitting 73 points but that clearly will be well short, and we're unlikely to turn my predicted losses into wins.

Basically, we are where we should be and we'll likely stay there. Squad depth has really hit us. The Cowleys are shuffling around the same 14 or so players which isn't ideal with two games a week.

Another big summer transfer window coming up. We're in a different position this time, not having to shift unwanted players on.
 

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