Who will be in the promotion/relegation threads?

shoddycollins

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A bit too early to actually start the promotion and relegation threads, but perhaps not too early to wonder who might be in those threads when they are started (usually around January is it?). I think I can probably at least tell you who won't be in the promotion / relegation thread come January.

So far I think that the top three, Plymouth, Portsmouth and Oxford have shown the required consistency to stick out the promotion battle. However from Mansfield in 4th all the way down to Notts County in 15th it's difficult to pick out seven or so teams to join the top three to make a ten-team promotion thread.

The four teams in the play-off places are probably a bit of a surprise to most, Mansfield and Carlisle being fresh from relegation battles last season and whose summer ambitions were probably not to be in yet another battle. Accrington have been the early season's surprise package and Orient featuring at the top will come as a surprise to the 50% of the forum who had them down for a second-successive relegation (but not to the 50% who had them down for a promotion challenge). Neither of these teams, currently all level on points really look like consolidating a place in the promotion battle before January.

Below them you have teams like Luton, Northampton and Wycombe who probably feel themselves capable of mounting a promotion challenge, Morecambe may feel cautiously optimistic given their ability to score, having taken on our mantle of having simultaneously the best attack and worst defence. Bristol Rovers and Wycombe both have games in hand that could see them in the playoff places.

I would hazard a guess that Exeter (who looked like a good team yesterday) and everyone above them are unlikely to feature in the relegation thread once it gets going, although wouldn't be too surprised if at least one of those teams did have a November/December flop and wind up in the bottom 8. Accrington and Morecambe fans will probably roll their eyes at this, but if I had to pick a couple of top 10 teams who might feature in the bottom 8 come January, I would look to the ones with the least resources to cope with an injury crisis. Cambridge and Notts County, having been included among my teams who might get into the promotion thread, are just not quite consistent looking enough to discount them from ending up in the relegation thread, though I would consider it relatively unlikely for them to do so.

There are no real surprises in the current bottom 8... In fact the most surprising thing about it is that there are no surprises, and the smaller teams who are always predicted by the bookies to struggle, 6 of them actually are struggling. Some of them seem to be doing their level best to get relegated and all the teams from this group I've seen this season have looked lacking in some specific area (Barnet were actually pretty good but seem to lack finishing). There's always a chance that someone will get their way out of this but I imagine that Crawley, Stevenage, Yeovil, D&R and Newport will be in the relegation thread. Add York to this who I don't think were expected to pull up any trees but might just have the quality and resources to pull away, and then finally Binghampool United who I'm not going to rule out of a sudden upturn in form to get into the playoff thread but are probably most likely to feature in neither.

The least surprising thing of all is having ran my promotion thread possibilities down as far as Notts County... and then ran my relegation possibilities up as far as Hartlepool... the team mentioned in neither who can probably start the mid-table thread right now, are Wimbledon.
 

BeesKnees

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Us, Newport and Yeovil.
We're all as shit as eachother, so thank god there's only two spots to fill!
Not played Newport or Yeovil yet. Stevenage, Daggers, Wimbledon and York were poor in their games against us.
If we can sort out our away form then I'm reasonably optimistic. We dont trouble the top teams but we seem to have enough to beat the weak ones.
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-two/2015-2016/form-table/home
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-two/2015-2016/form-table/away
 

AdamStag

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#4
I think over the season the bigger sides will win out, though hope I'm proved wrong. Portsmouth and Plymouth look a shoe in for promotion.

For the playoffs, I think anyone could get into them - I genuinely think the league has improved this season - though Plymouth are the only decent side I've saw so far at field mill.

As for relegation - don't care, just glad not to be involved! (Hopefully).

With budgets of a small African country, lolton and Notts county should be up there
 

wilsontown

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#5
York are definitely going to feature in the relegation thread. We just got well beaten 3-1 by a pretty terrible Barnet side and we've only actually won against Yeovil and Newport. If we stay up it won't be by much on current form. On the other hand, if we sack our chump of a manager the players we have ought to be easily in mid table. We'll not be troubling the promotion thread, that's for certian.
 

Youpies

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#6
I don't think we will get relegated or will be in that thread. We just need to find a bit of consistency and we should kick on
 
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#8
I think the top 3 will stay pretty much as it is now.

Play offs I reckon will include Accy, Wycombe, Morecambe and Luton with Orient Carlisle and Rovers making up the top 10

Relegation ? Newport look certainties and I think the 2nd spot might depend on Northamptons solvency.
So the rest look safe to me but will include Crawley Yeovil and Barnet..
Daggers always escape and York should emulate them. Not sure abouth Stevenage but I don't think Sheringham is the right man for the job.
 
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#9
We are 7 points off the relegation zone, and 7 points off the play offs. I won't be deluding myself though as I know we are more likely to drop than go up. I think we will end up around 16th.
There is a big unknown quantity in the mix I think - Northampton's finances. I want to avoid relegation of course, but I want to do it by playing football, not by someone else's financial demise.
 

jacobncfc

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#10
We're too good at home against shit teams to worry about relegation I think.

I'd still expect us to be in the top seven by the end of the season, to be honest.
 

Murphy

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This 'Daggers always escape' mularkey doesn't wash with me this season. We've lost Abu, Doey and Billy - three of our biggest players over the past few seasons. We don't have a leader in the side and we don't have a battler in midfielder, two essential qualities for a League Two side. Admittedly I haven't seen much of us in the past month (I'd seen enough in the 1st month before heading back to Uni)! but unless we address those two massive faults, we're here to stay in the bottom two I reckon.
 

Vanni

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#14
'Cambridge are just not quite consistent looking enough to discount them from ending up in the relegation thread'

Hmm, I was under the impression Shoddy is one of the sensible members on this forum. Looks like I was mistaken ;)

Seriously though, I'm thinking there are several strong sides this year so making the playoffs is a big ask, however it would be a disaster if we were to find ourselves scrapping with the bottom 5/6 sides. Imo, as it stands, Newport and Dagenham need to improve quite a lot to stay up. Same goes for Yeovil, York and Crawley, though the latter are showing promising signs of a revival. I think these 5 sides were the ones I predicted to finish in the bottom 5 so I'm not even remotely surprised. One thing I'll say though is that I don't agree with those who say something like 'XYZ are surely doomed'. A lot can still happen, and that's without taking into equation the January transfers/loans.

Re. the promotion hopefuls, afaic, everything's also going to plan. It's hardly surprising Pompey, Plymouth, Wycombe and Oxford are currently at the top end of the table. The only side that was expected to be up there but isn't is Luton, but I would be surprised if their results don't pick and make the po's at the very least. There's also a good chance that a side or two that had a very good start to the season find themselves plummeting down the table after Dec/Jan.

It's also hard to disregard entirely the likes of us, Carlisle, Morecambe and Mansfield at this early stage. If a side gets lucky with injuries or gets a couple of excellent loanees in, then anything can happen.

Btw, I won't be surprised if Accrington mount a serious push for the playoffs.
 

BeesKnees

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#15
Crawley and Barnet are the two worst teams I've seen this season. I'm not sure Barnet would have scored even if we were still going now...

Yeovil weren't much better (but then neither were we that day). Haven't played York, Newport or Daggers yet.

Plymouth are the best team I've seen and Morecambe the most clinical
I think generally we have been scoring fairly freely of late but for the game against you the team selection was a mess. You are the only team to stop us scoring since August.
 

Baratheon

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#16
Even though we're 4th I don't think we have the strength in depth for a top 7 finish. Unless we strengthen in January, I would expect mid-table.
 

thewwfc

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#17
Neither promotion or relegation for us,just outside the play offs come May i reckon.
Fair call, we really haven't got the strength in depth unless Ainsworth can work some real magic in the loan department - and we're not scoring that many. Which is fine when your defence is on form, but if not...
 

rudebwoyben

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Yep, doesn't help if you start letting the opposition keeper score!
If we can start picking up away points we will move away from the bottom 8. If not, we will be looking over our shoulders although Newport and Dagenham look like they'll be making the battle to avoid the bottom 2 pretty simple.
 

mowgli

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Fair call, we really haven't got the strength in depth unless Ainsworth can work some real magic in the loan department - and we're not scoring that many. Which is fine when your defence is on form, but if not...
We need Hayes back fit asap as he leads the line so well, not just scoring goals but setting them up for others as well. I know he hadn't scored yet but it seems he was carrying an achilles injury, pairing him and Thompson the goals will come.
 
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#21
Accrington are a big strong side who I think will make the playoffs and im convinced that my team Morecambe will also be there! Peter Murphy will be back next month which will basically a new signing after getting inured after 11 minutes of his Morecambe career. We also have a little bit of cash to play with after the sale of Redshaw
 

Chippy

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#23
Judging by what I have seen of us so far this season I am not convinced we'll make the play offs. Last night was utterly depressing for the most part. Big players either somehow can't get a game or when they do, aren't performing. I think we'll make the promotion thread and just miss out on the top 7.
 

WH_Stag

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#25
Actually starting to think we have a better quality squad than most think, a few real good finds in there.

I think theres a possibility we'll be playoffs, top three something amazing would have to happen.
 

hellogregory

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#26
I think our habit of giving away shit goals is going to cost us any chance of playoffs.

It's a shame because we have so much going forward, we have goals everywhere and can hurt anyone (apart from Newport).

When the league properly takes shape come early December time, we'll spend the rest of the season hanging around the 10th to 16th area IMO, with the odd back to back win that might bring some temporary playoff gate crashing excitement.

Mid table mediocrity would be an absolute dream compared to the shower of shite we were last season, so can't complain too much.
 

Richard Cranium

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If Green can start firing then we'll be up there. Think we have the best defensive record in the league but not sure. Would be nice to beat a top half team or two though but ot must be said we've played Plymouth and Oxford and got good points against both.
 

AdamStag

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#29
As the injury with benning could show, injuries and suspension could really come back and hit us - our aggressive attitude has been lamented by others but it's also shown in our improved record.

If we are backed with loans and in the January window there is an outside chance we might be in there somewhere.

Our team spirit and commitment is as good as I've seen in years at Mansfield, they are warriors, I've not seen a side as close and dedicated before at field mill.
 

shoddycollins

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Things taking shape a little bit more... York going from bad to worse while, what is going on at Hartlepool? Newport suddenly aren't going to be written off, but it's Dagenham who have been most consistently shite. Pity poor Yeovil to be at the bottom of it all.

Nothing much looking like changing in the make-up of the top three though. Accrington rediscovering some form in the nick of time and with a cash injection have to be taken seriously now as promotion candidates. Everyone else, battling away inconsistently as they were.
 

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