shoddycollins
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A bit too early to actually start the promotion and relegation threads, but perhaps not too early to wonder who might be in those threads when they are started (usually around January is it?). I think I can probably at least tell you who won't be in the promotion / relegation thread come January.
So far I think that the top three, Plymouth, Portsmouth and Oxford have shown the required consistency to stick out the promotion battle. However from Mansfield in 4th all the way down to Notts County in 15th it's difficult to pick out seven or so teams to join the top three to make a ten-team promotion thread.
The four teams in the play-off places are probably a bit of a surprise to most, Mansfield and Carlisle being fresh from relegation battles last season and whose summer ambitions were probably not to be in yet another battle. Accrington have been the early season's surprise package and Orient featuring at the top will come as a surprise to the 50% of the forum who had them down for a second-successive relegation (but not to the 50% who had them down for a promotion challenge). Neither of these teams, currently all level on points really look like consolidating a place in the promotion battle before January.
Below them you have teams like Luton, Northampton and Wycombe who probably feel themselves capable of mounting a promotion challenge, Morecambe may feel cautiously optimistic given their ability to score, having taken on our mantle of having simultaneously the best attack and worst defence. Bristol Rovers and Wycombe both have games in hand that could see them in the playoff places.
I would hazard a guess that Exeter (who looked like a good team yesterday) and everyone above them are unlikely to feature in the relegation thread once it gets going, although wouldn't be too surprised if at least one of those teams did have a November/December flop and wind up in the bottom 8. Accrington and Morecambe fans will probably roll their eyes at this, but if I had to pick a couple of top 10 teams who might feature in the bottom 8 come January, I would look to the ones with the least resources to cope with an injury crisis. Cambridge and Notts County, having been included among my teams who might get into the promotion thread, are just not quite consistent looking enough to discount them from ending up in the relegation thread, though I would consider it relatively unlikely for them to do so.
There are no real surprises in the current bottom 8... In fact the most surprising thing about it is that there are no surprises, and the smaller teams who are always predicted by the bookies to struggle, 6 of them actually are struggling. Some of them seem to be doing their level best to get relegated and all the teams from this group I've seen this season have looked lacking in some specific area (Barnet were actually pretty good but seem to lack finishing). There's always a chance that someone will get their way out of this but I imagine that Crawley, Stevenage, Yeovil, D&R and Newport will be in the relegation thread. Add York to this who I don't think were expected to pull up any trees but might just have the quality and resources to pull away, and then finally Binghampool United who I'm not going to rule out of a sudden upturn in form to get into the playoff thread but are probably most likely to feature in neither.
The least surprising thing of all is having ran my promotion thread possibilities down as far as Notts County... and then ran my relegation possibilities up as far as Hartlepool... the team mentioned in neither who can probably start the mid-table thread right now, are Wimbledon.
So far I think that the top three, Plymouth, Portsmouth and Oxford have shown the required consistency to stick out the promotion battle. However from Mansfield in 4th all the way down to Notts County in 15th it's difficult to pick out seven or so teams to join the top three to make a ten-team promotion thread.
The four teams in the play-off places are probably a bit of a surprise to most, Mansfield and Carlisle being fresh from relegation battles last season and whose summer ambitions were probably not to be in yet another battle. Accrington have been the early season's surprise package and Orient featuring at the top will come as a surprise to the 50% of the forum who had them down for a second-successive relegation (but not to the 50% who had them down for a promotion challenge). Neither of these teams, currently all level on points really look like consolidating a place in the promotion battle before January.
Below them you have teams like Luton, Northampton and Wycombe who probably feel themselves capable of mounting a promotion challenge, Morecambe may feel cautiously optimistic given their ability to score, having taken on our mantle of having simultaneously the best attack and worst defence. Bristol Rovers and Wycombe both have games in hand that could see them in the playoff places.
I would hazard a guess that Exeter (who looked like a good team yesterday) and everyone above them are unlikely to feature in the relegation thread once it gets going, although wouldn't be too surprised if at least one of those teams did have a November/December flop and wind up in the bottom 8. Accrington and Morecambe fans will probably roll their eyes at this, but if I had to pick a couple of top 10 teams who might feature in the bottom 8 come January, I would look to the ones with the least resources to cope with an injury crisis. Cambridge and Notts County, having been included among my teams who might get into the promotion thread, are just not quite consistent looking enough to discount them from ending up in the relegation thread, though I would consider it relatively unlikely for them to do so.
There are no real surprises in the current bottom 8... In fact the most surprising thing about it is that there are no surprises, and the smaller teams who are always predicted by the bookies to struggle, 6 of them actually are struggling. Some of them seem to be doing their level best to get relegated and all the teams from this group I've seen this season have looked lacking in some specific area (Barnet were actually pretty good but seem to lack finishing). There's always a chance that someone will get their way out of this but I imagine that Crawley, Stevenage, Yeovil, D&R and Newport will be in the relegation thread. Add York to this who I don't think were expected to pull up any trees but might just have the quality and resources to pull away, and then finally Binghampool United who I'm not going to rule out of a sudden upturn in form to get into the playoff thread but are probably most likely to feature in neither.
The least surprising thing of all is having ran my promotion thread possibilities down as far as Notts County... and then ran my relegation possibilities up as far as Hartlepool... the team mentioned in neither who can probably start the mid-table thread right now, are Wimbledon.
