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If the last 9 years have been that bad, doesn’t it reflect rather poorly on Labour that they’re polling under 33% and their best chance of ‘success’ is finishing a close enough second to deny the Tories a majority? I mean, since GE2017 the Tories have presided over a 30-month period barely...

The polls being out by 2-3 points, which is well within the acceptable margin of error given the amount of tactical voting, is all that's needed to put it back in hung parliament territory.

Many Leave voters I know wanted a more reciprocal arrangement for precisely that reason (I remain undecided). We'll see who was right in a week's time, I guess. FWIW, I don't think the Brexit Party owes the Tories anything, let alone something for nothing. Nevertheless, the Brexit Party is...

You seem to be suggesting something like a confidence-and-supply agreement or forming a coalition government, but that's a non-starter unless the Brexit Party win approx. 5-10 seats. I don’t see them winning one. They are current polling at about 3%. As I wrote yesterday, Labour is likely to...

FWIW, the projected majorities are below 5% in at least 30 of the seats allocated to the Tories. YouGov has suggested that a nationwide 6-8% swing towards Labour could wipe out the majority entirely. If I were a Tory strategist, my main concerns would be (1) the 11th hour surge in voter...

Was probably explicitly instructed to keep a low profile after the Grenfell comments.

Does 68 qualify as worryingly big? Con 359 (+42) Lab 211 (-51) Lib Dem 13 (+1) SNP 43 (+8) Plaid 4 (-) Green 1 (-)

I think the most important point vis-à-vis polling is that a nationwide sample (however accurate) is of limited value when it comes to an election contested via FPTP. What really matters is polling in the key marginals. It’s all about the tactical voting in those seats, methinks.

If memory serves, the exit poll showed the Tories winning by an insufficient margin for a majority, which of course proved accurate. May had a polling lead of approx. 20 points when she called the snap election, but that got smaller and smaller as the campaign wore on. There doesn't appear to...

The allocated time slots were far too short for either man to give properly developed answers. Still, it’s Debating 101 to prepare for the agreed format. Corbyn obviously had prepared for the format, hence his more clipped, economical answers. Johnson obviously had not prepared for the format...

First TV debate tonight. I suspect grouting the shower would be a more productive and intellectually stimulating use of my time, but I'll probably watch anyway. It's a good format for Corbyn, especially since it's just him and Johnson. The government has a record to defend. Corbyn doesn't...

I always struggle to be objective about the SNP (so take this with an industrial-sized vat of salt), but I don’t think there is any good reason for their inclusion. They only stand in Scotland, they are hellbent on leaving the Union anyway, and I can’t think of any reason for their inclusion...

Why?

Brown and Miliband both tried the cautious “look, we’ll redistribute more than the Tories but won’t rock the neoliberal boat too much” approach, and both lost with a piss poor share of the popular vote (29% and 30%, respectively). Perhaps their poor performance owed something to their...

This country. TripAdvisor Reviews for Pizza Express (Woking)

Prediction, Jockeroo?

If memory serves, we had pretty good GE threads in 2015 and 2017. Not as many people around now, but still worth creating a place for predictions, analysis and videos of Andrew Bridgen making an arse of himself. FWIW, I reckon a hung parliament.

if you want to formally leave the EU in a way that will minimise disruption to the economy (which I assume is what Labour meant when they talked of a jobs-first Brexit), the best form of Brexit would be a Norway-type arrangement with continued full participation in the Single Market. Ultimately...

Yep, it’s my suspicion (not a declaration of platonic truth), and one no doubt skewed by certain ideological biases and grievances, which we all have to some extent. That said, I think I am more open to persuasion than many Leave voters (e.g. I have changed my mind about the wisdom of having...