Accas - a mugs game?

[Jemfy]

So following a couple of off hand comments on the non-league forum, I'm taking a rare venture out, and I wanted other people's opinions on this.

I don't think accas available at such sites as bellbet.com are any more or less a mugs game than any other bet, so long as you understand them.

IMO you should only be betting on positive expectation value (+EV), i.e. things where you think the bookies have it wrong, no matter the chance of it happening, just the fact that the value of it happening outweighs the chance.

You are basically backing yourself to be better at judging the chances than the bookies one way or another. Over time if you are right, you win money, and if you are wrong you lose it. So long as all the bets in the acca are the same and nothing is there to "boost the odds", then it's a +EV bet. It's just happening to put them on conditonally with each other, but if the odds are good then you are not putting on something that will lose you money over time. If the odds are not good, then you shouldn't be betting on one or more of the outcomes either way.

 

[Richard Cranium]

Since Boxing Day I am about £800 up on Acca's. It's mainly all I bet on, It was helped with a £400 win early January. £5 on 3 teams each Saturday seems to be winning me a fair bit, and In the week I like to do it online and have been winning lots on the Europa League lately.

However had I not cashed out for £175 at HT on Boxing Day and waited I'd of been £1200 up that night. 7/8 teams were all winning, just Liverpool who were 0-0 but I never thought all 7 would keep there leads!

 

[George Reilly's Hairpiece]

As I was the person that made the remark, I'll explain why I feel like that.

As a background, and somebody who has been experimenting with various betting over 25 years, I've had my share of accumulator bets in my time. There are two fundamental problems with them as I see it. For clarity, accumulators for me are fourfold bets and upwards.

If we take it as read that we are looking to win money, then as mentioned, a +EV is required over time. If accumulators are there for a bit of fun and the winning is a secondary aspect, well that's different, and good luck to those who do them. Not for me, but I can certainly appreciate the buzz that can come from having 4 in and just needing Rangers to score at home to St. Mirren to win £160.

To get that +EV we are concerned with selection and staking. Can I find the selections where the price will allow me over time to return a profit, and do I have a bank roll that allows me to ride out the variances that I am going to encounter. When you start backing accumulators, the difficulty factor for both of those elements go up. With singles, you can cherry pick the matches that you think meet your criteria, with accumulators you need to find at least four that do, with a single bookmaker. Personally this is where most fall down as you are almost shoehorning selections in to get your fourfold.

But we'll assume that it's possible and that the chances of any selection are the same, irrespective of whether they are singles or in an acca. So for a fourfold accumulator at even money, you get a 15/1 bet. So you need to win on average 14 times or less to see a return. If we are looking to get the same return betting both ways, then me, with my singles hat on knowing that you get a yield 4 times greater over time with accas would up my unit stake by 4 to get the same return, again assuming that the chance of any single match winning at evens happens more than 50 in 100.

That would mean that over time, both would return the same average winnings. I'm winning the same amount both ways, but having to ride out more variance with accas, so taking more risk for no more return. Yes my yield is higher, but I have the same amount of money in my bank at the end of both runs.

Why would I choose the option that returns no more profit, but carries a lot more variance?

 

[Luke Imp]

I mix between singles, doubles and trebles.

Singles usually go on good value ones and doubles/trebles are for the more risky value ones that if it comes in, then that's a plus.

 

[SamScfc]

Accas are good for fun, when they win it's brilliant but it's rare and it won't make you any long term profit.

 

[yellow]

I tend to avoid long accas where you pick teams to win, but I do occasionally do 10-folds of over 1.5/2.5 goals (6 1.5 & 4 2.5) and stick a quid on, usually getting odds of 60-80/1 so it's worth a quid. It came in twice since October, winning £130 so it wasn't too bad.

Last week won a four-fold so I've gone for that again tomorrow. Think there'll be goals on Easter Monday so I might go for a goals acca then.

 

[Dave-Vale]

Massive mugs game.

 

[CFC91]

Doubles, Trebles for me usually. Will have a fourfold as a supplimentary bet but my main stakes will be on shorter prices doubles nowadays. Up my stakes to do this but the returns and success rates are much better. Having 10 fold accas are silly to me.

 

[Indian Dan]

I usually do 5 or 6 teams. Sometimes on result, sometimes BTTS. Coventry fucked me up last Saturday for nearly £400.

If I put my bet on with Skybet on Thursday for the following Saturday, 4 times out 5 I can cash out for my stake plus 20% before a ball is kicked as they regularly shorten their prices nearer kick off.

Not very exciting, I know, and won't make you a fortune unless you stake bid.

 

[Son of Cod]

I usually do 5 or 6 teams. Sometimes on result, sometimes BTTS. Coventry fucked me up last Saturday for nearly £400.

If I put my bet on with Skybet on Thursday for the following Saturday, 4 times out 5 I can cash out for my stake plus 20% before a ball is kicked as they regularly shorten their prices nearer kick off.

Not very exciting, I know, and won't make you a fortune unless you stake bid.

Yeah, I like BTTS because you're pretty much in it right until full time. I like checking them off as they come in too.

I did a match winner with 3 or more goals combo on the FA Cup first round weekend recently, my winner predictions in CAPS. £5 on...

CHELSEA 5-0 Everton
Norwich 2-3 LEEDS
BRAINTREE 7-0 Eastbourne
Dartford 3-6 SUTTON
WESTFIELD 1-1 Curzon Ashton

...would have £3800 or something had Westfield scored another! Tantalisingly close, so will probably try another of those soon.

 

[Magic]

Yeah, I like BTTS because you're pretty much in it right until full time. I like checking them off as they come in too.

I did a match winner with 3 or more goals combo on the FA Cup first round weekend recently, my winner predictions in CAPS. £5 on...

CHELSEA 5-0 Everton
Norwich 2-3 LEEDS
BRAINTREE 7-0 Eastbourne
Dartford 3-6 SUTTON
Westfield 1-1 Curzon Ashton

...would have £3800 or something had Westfield scored another! Tantalisingly close, so will probably try another of those soon.

Agree re. BTTS. Decent for cash out too as a goal can't suddenly screw your bet.

Sometimes I'll do win and BTTS - pick 5 and do trebles or something but they rarely come in tbh.

 

[The Mustard Tiger]

I quite enjoy doing an acca. Definitely part of my Saturday ritual. I've only won twice so far this season but I never bet more than a couple of quid at a time so it's not like I'm losing much if it doesn't come through. It should just be a bit of fun to make the sport a bit more interesting.

 

[Indian Dan]

Yep, same for me. I have a sneaky fiver or tenner on a small acca just to make Jeff Stelling a bit more interesting when I'm not at a game. Only had a few smallish cashouts this season.

 

[Son of Cod]

Today, I've got £5 on a BTTS...

Southampton v Liverpool
AFC Wimbledon v Bury
Bristol Rovers v MK Dons
Doncaster v Hartlepool
Gateshead v Eastleigh
Motherwell v Partick

...pays £179.55 and £5 on a match winner + 3 or more goals...

EVERTON v Swansea
SCUNTHORPE v Oldham
CHELTENHAM v Portsmouth
DONCASTER v Hartlepool

...pays £477.60. Bollocks, didn't realise I'd put the Donny game down twice haha.

 

[Indian Dan]

Got off to a good start last night with Brighton v Villa BTTS in my acca of 7
Everton to win

These BTTS
Watford v Leicester
QPR v Norwich
Bolton v Millwall
Southend v Bradford
Orient v Blackpool

£5 pays £243

 

[Son of Cod]

BTTS + match winner tonight, £2 on...

ARSENAL v PSG
Monchengladbach v CITY
ATLETICO v PSV
BESIKTAS v Benfica

...pays £552.50

 

[Luke Imp]

The last couple of weeks I've done a HT treble as well, which has bagged me £40 and £50.

 

[Son of Cod]

So I did the match winner with 3 or more goals again today and managed to crack it this time...

£10 on...
BARNSLEY v Norwich
HUDDERSFIELD v Bristol City
PETERBOROUGH v Chesterfield
SHEFFIELD UNITED v Swindon
...won me a nice £782.

 

[Luke Imp]

My HT one this week was Villa, Brentford, Posh and Sheffield United, who were all drawing at the time. £5 for £80.

I don't win anything of any real note, I just do it for a bit of fun and interest, but it ticks me over through the season.

 

[Son of Cod]

Doing another winner + 3 or more goals tonight. £10 on...
Bournemouth v LEICESTER
Everton v ARSENAL
LEEDSLEEDSLEEDS v Reading

 

[Son of Cod]

Doing another winner + 3 or more goals tonight. £10 on...
Bournemouth v LEICESTER
Everton v ARSENAL
LEEDSLEEDSLEEDS v Reading

That one didn't work out, but I also put this on tonight...

 

[Son of Cod]

Win and over 2.5 goals, £10 on...
FOREST v Wolfs
GILLINGHAM v MK Dons
PORTSMOUTH v Hartlepool
...pays £322

Ridiculous accumulator, £10...
LEEDS v Brentford
SHEFF WED v Rotherham
SWINDON v Fleetwood
SHREWSBURY v Brovers
BARNET v Stevenage
HALIFAX v Telford
Gloucester v FYLDE
EBBSFLEET v Gosport Borough
...pays £3675

BTTS and winner, an optimistic 76p (to round off my account) on...
PALACE v Cheslea
Donny v THE MIGHTY MARINERS
...pays £54

Win and over 1.5 goals, £10 on...
Oldham v SOUTHEND
SCUNNY v Millwall
Accrington v PLYMOUTH
COLCHESTER v Notts County
WYCOMBE v Leyton Orient
...pays £2285

 

[T.A]

Don't see Gillingham or Swindon winning.

 

[Indian Dan]

Yeah, I still do them - usually a 5-team accy. Only need a couple to come up over the season to be in profit - especially with cash out if you’re a wuss! I just like the interest when I’m not at a game.

 

[Son of Cod]

Sorry to bump an old thread but does anyone still do these accas? I’m struggling to win any can anyone give me some tips

Both teams to score in MLS is a good one to throw in, in my opinion. Barnsley away at the moment are decent odds too. I find I have much more luck with trebles 4/5 folds, which might sound obvious but it's easy to get carried away.

 

[markwwfc1992]

Home teams to win in the Nigerian leagues. Their football federation is beyond corrupt, sadly the bookies have now caught on and is reflected in the odds they give.

 

[Son of Cod]

Luton, Barnsley and Tranmere v Mansfield BTTS for me.

 

[Craig]

Tomorrow I'm getting on Barnsley, Mansfield, Grimsby, Crewe and Northampton all to win away at roughly 212/1 with SkyBet.

 

[Bobbin']

Never usually have more than a fiver on accas. Unless I'm doing multiples.

They're usually just a little fun bet to try and keep the account funds ticking over.

Bradford/Plymouth/Barnsley/Wimbledon tonight at just over 27/1.

 

[mase]

Mine tonight:

Portsmouth
Peterborough
Doncaster
Barnsley
Exeter