European Union Referendum

[Captain Scumbag]

We can't really proceed with the washing machine

In that case, I see no good reason for continuing. That was the most enjoyable part!

In all seriousness, I'm happy enough (if you are) to leave the above on a vague sort of agree to disagree basis. Others can judge which case is more convincing.

The only subjects I haven't covered is the single market and Norway/Switzerland. I will (eventually) come back on those, as they deserve a response. Apologies again. Work commitments mean I'm largely limited to weekend posting, and family commitments mean I don't wish to devote too much of the weekend to waffling about the EU.

P.S. Since you expressed an interest, this is an interesting piece by the aforementioned Roland Smith. This and this are interesting anti-EU pieces I read earlier today in the Guardian.

 

[Max]

In that case, I see no good reason for continuing. That was the most enjoyable part!

In all seriousness, I'm happy enough (if you are) to leave the above on a vague sort of agree to disagree basis. Others can judge which case is more convincing.

The only subjects I haven't covered is the single market and Norway/Switzerland. I will (eventually) come back on those, as they deserve a response. Apologies again. Work commitments mean I'm largely limited to weekend posting, and family commitments mean I don't wish to devote too much of the weekend to waffling about the EU.

P.S. Since you expressed an interest, this is an interesting piece by the aforementioned Roland Smith. This and this are interesting anti-EU pieces I read earlier today in the Guardian.

Absolutely - it's been an interesting discussion but I think indeed we'll agree to disagree!

I will read the Roland Smith piece tomorrow when I am more awake, as that one in particular looks fascinating. Thank you!

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

I see Osborne's been warning that house prices will plummet should Britain decide to leave the EU. Brexit suddenly looks altogether more appealing!

 

[silkyman]

I'm sure someone more economically minded can put me straight, but I've never seen the big deal over 'house prices falling'.

Unless they crash to massive widespread negative equity levels, then the odd rise and fall doesn't really matter. If my gaff drops in value by 25%, then so what? I still live here and if I move, then the new place would have the same reduction.

Prices shooting up would be worse overall, but basically the only thing that would really fuck people over is the interest rate going up too much.

 

[mente captus]

Us not doing terribly inside the EU does not mean we couldn't have done better outside it. Given our shared history and cultural similarities, it's ludicrous that Britain doesn't have FTAs with countries like USA, Canada, Australia and India. Had we been outside the EU for the last 40+ years, we'd probably have them, not least because we'd have been free to negotiate them on a bilateral basis. We're counterfactual territory here, I know, but it's food for thought.

Why you dont have? We have ftas with japan, australia, india ( since 1955) and many more. You cant blame the Eu for mistakes your own government has done.

 

[Max]

I'm sure someone more economically minded can put me straight, but I've never seen the big deal over 'house prices falling'.

Unless they crash to massive widespread negative equity levels, then the odd rise and fall doesn't really matter. If my gaff drops in value by 25%, then so what? I still live here and if I move, then the new place would have the same reduction.

Prices shooting up would be worse overall, but basically the only thing that would really fuck people over is the interest rate going up too much.

I am a home owner. I would like to move, but stamp duty means I can't afford to. I would quite like it if house prices fell.

Whenever house prices go up, people seem quite pleased with themselves, but this happens for most people's properties, so I don't really see what the supposed benefits are? I bought a place 18 months ago that has made about 60k, but this means nothing to me, because every property in my area has done the same thing.

 

[Alty]

I'm sure someone more economically minded can put me straight, but I've never seen the big deal over 'house prices falling'.

Unless they crash to massive widespread negative equity levels, then the odd rise and fall doesn't really matter. If my gaff drops in value by 25%, then so what? I still live here and if I move, then the new place would have the same reduction.

Prices shooting up would be worse overall, but basically the only thing that would really fuck people over is the interest rate going up too much.

Our economy is in many ways fundamentally flawed and unproductive. The best way for middle class people to continue growing their wealth is for their house value to increase faster than overall inflation.

I remain convinced there's going to be a crash, Brexit or no Brexit.

 

[Alty]

I am a home owner. I would like to move, but stamp duty means I can't afford to. I would quite like it if house prices fell.

Whenever house prices go up, people seem quite pleased with themselves, but this happens for most people's properties, so I don't really see what the supposed benefits are? I bought a place 18 months ago that has made about 60k, but this means nothing to me, because every property in my area has done the same thing.

Depends what your ultimate plans are, I guess. If you're of a mind to downsize or move abroad, then UK house prices rocketing is perfect.

 

[silkyman]

Gideon's nailed the 'we might move to Spain in a few years' vote, then.

 

[Alty]

Gideon's nailed the 'we might move to Spain in a few years' vote, then.

Or the people who sell their four bed house in order to buy a two bed bungalow after the kids grow up. You know, middle class Tory voters.

If Leave hadn't been firing off doom scenarios in such a scattergun fasion, it would probably have been quite an effective line of attack.

Fucking sick of this campaign now. Would rather have the vote tomorrow.

 

[Tilbury]

Not worthy of its own thread, but the far right Freedom party candidate Hoffen has been defeated (just) in the second round of voting in the Austrian Presidential election. He was ahead yesterday before postal ballots were counted but Bellen, the ex green now independent, picked up more of these and won by around half a point.

 

[Tilbury]

 

[The Southbank]

Hasn't nationalism always been more prevalent on the continent anyway? I know that's not what you're trying to get at, but those figures don't surprise me, it's actually what I'd suspect in all honesty.

 

[Alty]

I like the fact the SNP and Sinn Fein don't even qualify as nationalist for that map. Pro-EU charlatans.

 

[Tilbury]

Hasn't nationalism always been more prevalent on the continent anyway? I know that's not what you're trying to get at, but those figures don't surprise me, it's actually what I'd suspect in all honesty.

Of course. Its support and prevalence ebbs and flows, currently we're in a 'flow' phase, but I think actually having a far right candidate elected as head of state in a western Europe country is a pretty massive step tbh.

 

[Tilbury]

I like the fact the SNP and Sinn Fein don't even qualify as nationalist for that map. Pro-EU charlatans.

It's poorly titled. Should be rise of right wing nationalism in Europe.
But considering they've excluded UKIP from the map, clearly they've decided to omit the UK from their definition of Europe, something I thought you'd be pleased with.

 

[Alty]

It's poorly titled. Should be rise of right wing nationalism in Europe.
But considering they've excluded UKIP from the map, clearly they've decided to omit the UK from their definition of Europe, something I thought you'd be pleased with.

I've never denied that the UK is part of Europe. It's just we have a unique history within it and don't want a single polity called The European Union with an unelected executive branch.

 

[mnb089mnb]

It depends what question you're asking there. Is it enough to win? Yes, I think so. Remain will win and a vague sense of foreboding about the economy will be a decisive factor. For me? Well, I obviously look at it differently. I think there is a great deal of uncertainty and potential risk if we stay in, and I believe more important matters are at stake than short-to-medium-term economy stability anyway.

You're probably right that most people don't care about democracy, though that seems more an indictment of the electorate than a comment about what really matters vis-à-vis our relationship with the EU. And your point about Lizzy is just fatuous. While our unelected head of state does have political powers, they are, for all intents and purposes, merely ceremonial. Moreover, her popularity owes a great deal to people trusting her to be hands off and politically neutral, a national figurehead who rises above the silly factionalism of party politics.

I'd abolish the HoL tomorrow, but in effect the worst it can do is temporarily delay good laws passed by the HoC. The trade off is that we have a second chamber that can cause the government to rethink bad laws. In addition, the Salisbury Convention is an important (and largely effective) check on the Lords' power, not to mention one that gives primacy to the idea of government by democratic consent. From a democratic standpoint, the relationship between, say, the European Commission and the European Parliament is much more worrying.

PR would be lovely (AMS for me, please), but one reason why we're no closer is that we keep voting against it. We've never elected a government who stood for election promising it, and we comprehensively decided against taking a step closer when we had a plebiscite on the matter in 2011. I suppose much the same could be said of EU membership if/when Remain win the referendum. If so, fine. I, for one, will belt up about it. Ultimately we get the democracy we deserve.

Nah, that’s bollocks. I doubt even Mr Cameron's Old Etonian arrogance extends to thinking he can "sort out" the Tory schism over the EU by having a referendum on membership. All that does is give two bitterly opposed intra-party factions a much coveted prize to fight over. What does that achieve from a party unity PoV?

In truth, there will likely be a Tory split on the EU for as long as there is a Tory Party and an EU. I suspect Mr Cameron knows that. Why did he promise a referendum? The Tory Party's principal aim in politics is to win and maintain office. He judged – correctly, I think – that had to make that promise to secure large chunks of the conservative vote.

I suppose your basic point, that we're having the referendum for bad reasons, remains largely unscathed. Fine. Frankly, I don't think the party-political reasons for it coming about matter. It was needed and long overdue.

A vague sense of foreboding if we leave the EU and a great deal of risk if we stay in. Not sure that's how most see it.

You're a very good cheerleader for anti-democratic British institutions, I guess it's just the European ones that annoy you. I've got little time for both.

Ultimately I'm not happy with IN, or OUT.

I'd want a vote of IN - But don't be a dick and start further integration without letting us vote and OUT - But don't be a dick and kick a load of foreign nurses and doctors out of the country and kill our NHS.

 

[mnb089mnb]

I'm sure someone more economically minded can put me straight, but I've never seen the big deal over 'house prices falling'.

Unless they crash to massive widespread negative equity levels, then the odd rise and fall doesn't really matter. If my gaff drops in value by 25%, then so what? I still live here and if I move, then the new place would have the same reduction.

Prices shooting up would be worse overall, but basically the only thing that would really fuck people over is the interest rate going up too much.

If you have a pension they'll invest your cash in property. House price falls would affect that.

Construction companies wouldn't be as keen to build new homes. That would affect jobs.

Saying that, IMO, housing is the biggest issue in the UK, we need to:
A) build more
B) penalise those with more than one home via the tax system.
C) strongly penalise those who have second houses that are left vacant.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Leave can win by using immigration and I think they will. Leave also have a demographic advantage, as their supporters tend towards the older section of the population, who will crawl through a river of lava to get to a polling station. I've seen some very dodgy arguments from Dan Hannan, but will concede he also often talks some sense. Not heard of the other two but will gladly read up before commenting further in this thread

It's an interesting point of discussion as turnout will be a significant factor in the outcome of the referendum. You're quite right in your observation that older voters tend to skew towards Leave and that they turn out in greater numbers. However, there are other things, such as social class and education, that are likely to come into the equation and complicate matters. A lot of the available polling data suggests that the middle classes and graduates (who we know are also more likely to turn out) lean towards Remain (whereas education doesn't seem that significant a factor among younger voters, older voters with degrees appear substantially more likely to vote Remain). It could be that any advantage enjoyed by Leave in terms of age is cancelled out by these other demographic factors.

 

[Tilbury]

If you have a pension they'll invest your cash in property. House price falls would affect that.

Construction companies wouldn't be as keen to build new homes. That would affect jobs.

Saying that, IMO, housing is the biggest issue in the UK, we need to:
A) build more
B) penalise those with more than one home via the tax system.
C) strongly penalise those who have second houses that are left vacant.

I would add a fourth, some kind of rent control.

 

[Aber gas]

Thanks for putting that up mate. It does indeed show a worrying trend although there is a degree of optimism in the relatively poor showings of the Northern League ( propa fash) Golden Dawn and most surprisingly Fronte Nazionale. Interesting that they didn't show the uk on that chart. Perhaps they don't consider UKIP as a true far- right nationalist party ( yet)

 

[Cheese & Biscuits]

B) penalise those with more than one home via the tax system.
C) strongly penalise those who have second houses that are left vacant

that's me although I do agree with you.

 

[mnb089mnb]

Best article I've read on Brexit or Brin so far.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boyband-5ive-pull-out-brexit-8038617?1

 

[Tilbury]

Thanks for putting that up mate. It does indeed show a worrying trend although there is a degree of optimism in the relatively poor showings of the Northern League ( propa fash) Golden Dawn and most surprisingly Fronte Nazionale. Interesting that they didn't show the uk on that chart. Perhaps they don't consider UKIP as a true far- right nationalist party ( yet)

Some of those figures are a little out of date I think as they only include national elections. In france for instance the FN got double that % in the last regional elections held in December. Marie Le Pen is likely to do very well in the Presidential election next year too.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/22/world/europe/europe-right-wing-austria-hungary.html
This is more detailed.

 

[silkyman]

If you have a pension they'll invest your cash in property. House price falls would affect that.

Construction companies wouldn't be as keen to build new homes. That would affect jobs.

Saying that, IMO, housing is the biggest issue in the UK, we need to:
A) build more
B) penalise those with more than one home via the tax system.
C) strongly penalise those who have second houses that are left vacant.

It's a bit of a piss take that something that would benefit the majority, cheaper housing which would also lead to cheaper rent, is seen as such a 'bad thing' economically.

 

[silkyman]

I would add a fourth, some kind of rent control.

As above, lower house prices would lead to lower rent.

 

[mnb089mnb]

It's a bit of a piss take that something that would benefit the majority, cheaper housing which would also lead to cheaper rent, is seen as such a 'bad thing' economically.

I guess the economic argument is that.

If house prices fell, then people would have less disposable income. If the price of my house hadn't risen I wouldn't have paid a builder to build an extension on my house. He wouldn't have had that job to do. I guess it'd also hit car purchases and all sorts of things.

Economics is weird, not always as simple as it seems. That's why this whole EU thing is so complex. There's no easy answer.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Best article I've read on Brexit or Brin so far.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boyband-5ive-pull-out-brexit-8038617?1

Thank you for sharing, mnb. Very much enjoyed reading this important article which may very well influence my vote.

Especially enjoyed the picture of Abz on the farm with a chicken and this particular revelation:

Mr Love revealed in September that he had recorded a set of cover versions of 5ive songs with an agricultural theme, including Lamb Dunk Da Funk, Keep on Moooooving and When the Mice Go Out.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

Certainly makes you think (chiefly whether Alex James may be plotting to inflict a bunch of cheese themed Blur covers on us in the not too distant future).