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Fulham’s 2-0 win over Derby County last time out was important for two reasons. Firstly, and most obviously, it secured their place in the Championship play-off final, which had been in doubt after a 1-0 away defeat in the first leg of their semi-final.
Secondly, it answered lingering question marks about the team’s big game mentality. It might seem churlish to even doubt a team that had taken 69 points from it’s final 30 league games – five more than title-winners Wolverhampton Wanderers – but the timing of a slight drop off in performances invited mild scrutiny.
An excellent 3-0 win at Millwall set up a final two-game showdown with Cardiff City for automatic promotion. The Whites unconvincingly beat already-relegated Sunderland 2-1, in a game which could have seen them fall two behind but for wrongly rejected penalty appeals, before a costly final day 3-1 defeat at Birmingham, where they lacked their usual fluency.
The Blues pressed effectively in the first half and defended with unity in the second, a template that Derby carried out just as well in their first leg triumph. The key for any team that plays Fulham is to turn the game into a battle; centre-backs Denis Odoi and Tim Ream are easily beaten in the air and prone to the occasional error.
What the duo do very well though, is carry the ball into the opposing half and thus reduce the numbers with which the other team are defending. If Odoi and Ream are not closed down, they can pick their passes into wide areas, almost like honorary midfielders. If they are closed down half-heartedly though, there is more space for midfielders Tom Cairney and Kevin McDonald to dictate play and potentially pick passes into powerful front man Aleksandar Mitrovic.
The Serb, as of 22nd May, is 6/4 with Betway to score anytime, something he has done in five of his last nine appearances.
While Fulham are rarely able to match the battling qualities of their opponents, they use the ball so cleverly that they rarely need to; grabbing control of this final before it descends into a free-for-all will be key to their chances.
The diverse nature of the West Londoners’ threat should be a concern for Aston Villa. When they beat Middlesbrough 1-0 over a two-legged semi-final, the number one task was to nullify Adama Traore. Alan Hutton, a left-back by trade, did that superbly with the help of his wing-partner Albert Adomah. We saw in the second half of both clashes with the Teessiders that Traore was forced to move away from his original right-wing position, such was the impact of Steve Bruce’s master-plan.
The difference though is that Middlesbrough’s right-back, Ryan Shotton, didn’t offer alternative drive on the flank once Traore was bottled up, meaning their football became predictable. Fulham, by contrast, have two of the most powerful runners in the Championship on their right-flank: full-back Ryan Fredericks, who has had an outstanding season and Aboubakar Kamara, who earnt his last start after impressing from the bench recently.
Bruce not only has to worry about those two but, if he instructs midfielders like anchor man Mile Jedinak to shuffle across and help out Hutton, he then risks leaving more space centrally for Stefan Johansen to play his killer through balls in the final third, or on the other flank for Matt Targett to cross for Mitrovic.
Because Fulham manipulate the ball so well, they can often create a climate in which they hold all the cards. For all the money Aston Villa have spent, can the same be said of them?
Of course, the Midlanders are not a bad team: Jack Grealish carries the ball upfield effectively, wingers Adomah and Robert Snodgrass have hit purple patches this season while Lewis Grabban has a wide range of attributes up top.
While a lot of individual attacking quality has helped them compete for promotion this season, what they are lacking is a central midfielder with the skillset to switch play and control a game. Jedinak, although a valiant aerial battler, lacks the finesse to fulfil that role while Conor Hourihane, despite a respectable 10-goal return, relies too heavily on his left foot to make his next pass an unpredictable one.
Fulham are not yet the perfect side, but they have developed a coherent system that has allowed them to generate remarkable consistency in the second half of the season. Execute that blueprint on the big stage and the Premier League awaits.