Promotion thread

[AdamStag]

So a normal teams fixtures!

The point was out of the 7, 5 were at home. Which is significant considering we've lost 1 out of 16

 

[AdamStag]

It does “annoy” me that Mansfield has taken over us but it doesn’t surprise me. They had a “bigger” budget and manager (can you see what I did there) and Notts weren’t tipped much more than mid table.
If we make the playoffs that’s well over expectation, oh and we will win it as well!

Whereas it's anyone's guess who'll finish worse, there's certainly a few Mansfield fans winding up their county friends after some of the comments about "mind the gap" etc.

 

[Conker]

It does “annoy” me that Mansfield has taken over us but it doesn’t surprise me. They had a “bigger” budget and manager (can you see what I did there) and Notts weren’t tipped much more than mid table.
If we make the playoffs that’s well over expectation, oh and we will win it as well!

No County fans agreed with me when I said it was a surprise to see them second, this was a month or two ago.

 

[EricSabin]

MARC. RICHARDS. SCORES. GOALS.

 

[Indian Dan]

MARC. RICHARDS. SCORES. GOALS.

Can’t believe some of you Cobblers said that both Matt Taylor and Marc Richards’ legs had gone - not in the Douglas Bader way, of course. Both have just played 7 games in 3 weeks.

 

[Kenneth E End]

It does “annoy” me that Mansfield has taken over us but it doesn’t surprise me. They had a “bigger” budget and manager (can you see what I did there) and Notts weren’t tipped much more than mid table.
If we make the playoffs that’s well over expectation, oh and we will win it as well!

Notts County fans moaning about budgets. Seriously?

 

[AdamStag]

Notts County fans moaning about budgets. Seriously?

They're trying to do promotion legitimately this time though, unlike previous times.

 

[Conker]

Mansfield are only getting better and better now to be honest, I’m pretty confident we will be able to get in that top three.

Tough run coming up though, Coventry, Stevenage and Lincoln up next.

 

[denzel ecfc]

Think we will be fortunate to get into the playoffs unless we improve. Looking positively, we've played most of the top teams twice now and have games in hand. However it's difficult to see where goals are coming from at the moment. I think it looks like Luton plus two from Wycombe, Notts, Accrington and Mansfield from here

 

[GTFCfish]

Don't write us out of the play off picture yet guys, were only 17 points behind with 12 games left so 36 points to play for and with us being bang in form you just never know.

 

[denzel ecfc]

Don't write us out of the play off picture yet guys, were only 17 points behind with 12 games left so 36 points to play for and with us being bang in form you just never know.

Wouldn't put it past you to win on Saturday though!

 

[GTFCfish]

Wouldn't put it past you to win on Saturday though!

If your players decide to play on one leg and blindfolded...........


Then we might sneak a draw.

 

[SkyBluesRose]

Tough run coming up though, Coventry, Stevenage and Lincoln up next.

We're turned rubbish and Stevenage are your usual mediocre midtable team

 

[Conker]

We're turned rubbish and Stevenage are your usual mediocre midtable team

Got a funny feeling about playing you, although we did the job at your place well. Stevenage is a tough away game, probably most confident about Lincoln but they are due to get one over Mansfield big time.

 

[william death]

Important game for us away at Cambridge tomorrow night with only Exeter also playing of the top teams. IF we can grab a win that'll be 10 points from the last 5 games, which is actually pretty good form for a 'blip' - big 'if' at the moment though, we've only won once away since September (at Morecambe) and have an awful recent record v Cambridge.

 

[darren gregory]

Don't write us out of the play off picture yet guys, were only 17 points behind with 12 games left so 36 points to play for and with us being bang in form you just never know.

The Grimsby Vale game in a couple of weeks is massive, whichever one loses are out of the play-off picture i reckon

 

[AdamStag]

We're turned rubbish and Stevenage are your usual mediocre midtable team

It's never that easy, you'll have a full away following and we all know it'll be a tough game. After Swindon we were looking for a reply and 2 wins and a 6-0 aggregate is just the ticket, but home games against Coventry and Lincoln won't be easy

 

[GTFCfish]

The Grimsby Vale game in a couple of weeks is massive, whichever one loses are out of the play-off picture i reckon

 

[jacobncfc]

Important game for us away at Cambridge tomorrow night with only Exeter also playing of the top teams. IF we can grab a win that'll be 10 points from the last 5 games, which is actually pretty good form for a 'blip' - big 'if' at the moment though, we've only won once away since September (at Morecambe) and have an awful recent record v Cambridge.

If Saturday at Newport and last Tuesday is anything to go by, we’re going to drag this back to the trenches having been unlucky with Bennett’s injury.

I think it’s probably the way to go, our dip in form has coincided with Nolan trying to play a more open, attacking style of football IMO. Our early season form was built on being incredibly strong defensively, winning the physical battle in midfield rather than the possession one and grinding out win after win.

 

[Casey]

Err... I was just wondering..,???... Nah!

Casey

 

[Davidimp]

Got a funny feeling about playing you, although we did the job at your place well. Stevenage is a tough away game, probably most confident about Lincoln but they are due to get one over Mansfield big time.

Seen us win at your place a few times, especially in the 00s 4/5 times?
Our away form isn't good at all so honestly can't see us getting at all other than a few cards on and off the pitch.

 

[AdamStag]

If Saturday at Newport and last Tuesday is anything to go by, we’re going to drag this back to the trenches having been unlucky with Bennett’s injury.

I think it’s probably the way to go, our dip in form has coincided with Nolan trying to play a more open, attacking style of football IMO. Our early season form was built on being incredibly strong defensively, winning the physical battle in midfield rather than the possession one and grinding out win after win.

Think the pressure on You boys tomorrow will be massive, lose and all of a sudden you're a game infront of the 4 above you.

Mind, it's going to twist and turn for everyone, losing a game here or there will happen to us all.

 

[Youpies]

Yeah, it’s so tight up there with a fairly even league that every game looks like a must win. Truth is, we probably won’t know who’s going up other than Luton till after Easter. Which is pretty standard tbf

 

[AdamStag]

Yeah, it’s so tight up there with a fairly even league that every game looks like a must win. Truth is, we probably won’t know who’s going up other than Luton till after Easter. Which is pretty standard tbf

Well when we've Accrington and Luton over Easter I guess that's a very accurate statement!

 

[Conker]

Seen us win at your place a few times, especially in the 00s 4/5 times?
Our away form isn't good at all so honestly can't see us getting at all other than a few cards on and off the pitch.

Yeah, recent years though in the conference it’s generally not gone too well for you lot against Mansfield, including the FA Cup tie - which I think Liverpool was the reward.

 

[Davidimp]

Yeah, recent years though in the conference it’s generally not gone too well for you lot against Mansfield, including the FA Cup tie - which I think Liverpool was the reward.

Yeah don't think we've beaten you for a while, bit a bugger missing out the Liverpool game , thankfully we've made up it since...

 

[Sydney Posse]

Great win for us tonight. Keeps us hanging in there, and at a time where we have out first choice defence virtually back, and relatively speaking, easier games as have played most of the top ones recently. Still quietly confident

 

[JJ1532]

Right. As we're about the enter the final 2 months of the season, plus the last dozen or so games, I thought we'd roll out the Real League Two table, promotion style. This is going to show what teams are probably going to need to go up as Champions, in the automatics or via the play offs. As the points markers, I'm going to use not what each team that finished 1st, 3rd and 7th finished with, more what points total's would have seen you finish in those positions. So even if a league winner finished with 100 points, if they only needed 90 points to finish top, that's what I'll use. Same with 3rd and 7th as well.

We're only going to use the current top 10, regardless of how close the team in 11th or lower is. Obviously that doesn't mean teams lower than 10th aren't involved, but until they hit the top 10, they won't be included in these updates. Now, obviously these predicted lines aren't exact and might vary on a whole manner of factors. They are just a rough guide to show if each team keeps up its points per game totals that they've managed all season, these are the totals needed to finish 1st, 3rd and 7th.


90 - Champions 2015
89 - Champions 2012
88 -
87 - Champions 2016, 2017 Predicted Champions 2018
86 -
85 - Automatic Promotion 2016
84 - Automatic Promotion 2012
83 - Predicted Automatics 2018
82 - Champions 2014
81 -
80 - Champions 2013
79 -
78 - Automatic Promotion 2017
77 - Automatic Promotion 2013, 2014
76 -
75 - Predicted Play Offs 2018
74 -
73 -
72 -
71 - Play Offs 2012
70 - Play Offs 2016, 2017
69 - Play Offs 2015
68 - Play Offs 2013
67 - Luton(33) 93.38
66 -
65 -
64 -
63 - Play Offs 2014
62 - Wycombe(33) 86.02, Accrington(33) 86.02
------------------------------------------------------------
61 -
60 -
59 - Mansfield(33) 81.88
58 - Notts County(34) 78.2
57 - Swindon(34) 76.82
56 -
55 - Exeter(32) 78.66
-------------------------------------------------------------
54 -
53 - Lincoln(33) 73.6
52 -
51 - Crawley(34) 69
50 - Coventry(32) 71.8

So, looking at that lot, Luton might only need a win and they'll have a play off, barring something spectacular. Wycombe and Accrington are probably also there as well, but do they have the legs to stave off Mansfield and finish in the top 3? As for the play offs, would it be fair to say that the only real outsiders challenging for those spots are Lincoln and Crawley? Coventry have dropped off of late and have a horrible run over the next few weeks, whilst Coventry and the rest below 50 don't seem to have the consistency. You never know, but its hard to see at this stage. Can Notts County recover after struggling since the turn of the year on the whole? Shaping up to be a fascinating promotion battle.

Right, we'll go with the next 5 games for each team until we get to the final 10 and then we'll list them all. As already explained, the teams in Green are the current 10 top, whilst those in Red are the bottom 9 currently in relegation danger.

Forthcoming fixtures:

1st Luton(33) - 67 points. Cheltenham(H), Cambridge(A), Accrington(H), Coventry(A), Newport(A)
2nd Wycombe(33) - 62 points. Morecambe(H), Coventry(H), Crawley(A), Cambridge(H), Barnet(A)
3rd Accrington(33) - 62 points. Cambridge(H), Newport(A), Morecambe(H), Luton(A), Forest Green(H)
---------------------------------------------------
4th Mansfield(33) - 59 points. Coventry(H), Stevenage(A), Lincoln(H), Colchester(H), Notts County(A)
5th Notts County(34) - 58 points. Stevenage(H), Cheltenham(A), Forest Green(A), Mansfield(H), Chesterfield(A)
6th Swindon(34) - 57 points. Chesterfield(A), Yeovil(H), Cheltenham(H), Cambridge(A), Exeter(A)
7th Exeter(33) - 55 points. Grimsby(A), Chesterfield(H), Carlisle(H), Yeovil(H), Morecambe(A)
---------------------------------------------------
8th Lincoln(33) - 53 points. Crewe(H), Coventry(A), Mansfield(A), Chesterfield(A), Grimsby(H)
9th Crawley(34) - 51 points. Forest Green(A), Wycombe(H), Morecambe(H), Carlisle(A), Cheltenham(H)
10th Coventry(32) - 50 points. Mansfield(A), Wycombe(A), Lincoln(H), Barnet(H), Luton(H)

Hmm, a lot of teams have got some favourable games coming up in the next month, Mansfield and Coventry are the only teams I'd say have tough ones. The rest face at least 2 strugglers and/or a couple of mid-table teams. Time for teams to put a lot points on the board if they want to go up.

 

[Kenneth E End]

So by that table, we need 16 points for promotion and 20 points to be champions in 13 games.

Think it would take an overwhelming collapse for us not to achieve that from here now. We’ve got struggling Cheltenham on Saturday which would take that target down to 13 from 12 should we win. Especially as we’re likely to have most if not all of the injured quad back fit.

Wycombe and Accrington can’t keep up their current runs up until the end of the season.

 

[Maple Hatter]

So by that table, we need 16 points for promotion and 20 points to be champions in 13 games.

Think it would take an overwhelming collapse for us not to achieve that from here now. We’ve got struggling Cheltenham on Saturday which would take that target down to 13 from 12 should we win. Especially as we’re likely to have most if not all of the injured quad back fit.

Wycombe and Accrington can’t keep up their current runs up until the end of the season.

If you look at last season Doncaster looked odds on to win the title but had a slump whereas Portsmouth who were behind us at one stage put together an impressive run of result to not only secure promotion but win the league. So it can be done. I'm sure I remember Mansfield having a terrific end of season run in the conference to secure promotion. In fact I'm expecting one team to make a move. Our position looks healthy and as you pointed out we now have a full fit squad to choose from who have also had a mini break and should be raring to go. I'll still take promotion on the last day if thats what it takes. Getting out of this league is far more important than winning it. Looking at the table it looks like its going to be a close run thing. I wouldn't rule out anyone from Coventry upwards. All are capable of being in the mix. If we don't manage to get promoted though it would be a massive failure bearing in mind we have been top for such a long time. I'd much rather think postive and look at the stats. I can't see us losing or drawing over half our remaining games. The 5 or 6 wins required should be possible and thats not counting the draws we achieve.