Relegation Thread 23/24 Sponsored by Sadford City

JJ1990

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49 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 - Expected Survival 23/24, Grimsby(41)
42 -
41 -
40 -
39 - Sutton(43)
-----------------------------------------------------
38 - Colchester(40)
37 -
36 - Forest Green(42)

As you were for the bottom 3, as they all lost, but to 3 promotion chasers so no disgrace in it. Sutton are now in pray mode, as they will be hoping Colchester start to drop points in their many games in hand. Colchester were 5 minutes away from a solid draw with Wrexham, but couldn't do it, whilst FGR and Sutton lost comfortably.

Grimsby get an important win over Newport at home, but will need an away win from one of their next 3 you'd imagine. Got the fixtures to do it to be fair.

21st- Grimsby, 43 points, -17 GD: Harrogate(A), Crewe(A), Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Sutton, 39 points, -25 GD: Harrogate(A), Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Colchester, 38 points, -19 GD: Stockport(H), Crawley(A), Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Doncaster(H), Crewe(H)
24th - Forest Green, 36 points, -29 GD: Mansfield(A), Wrexham(A), Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)

As I've said before, there are almost no relegation 6 pointers left for these sides. Going to have to get the job done against mid-table teams or higher. Still looking like FGR and Sutton drop, but Colchester's run in could be the death of them and they are hardly in great form.

Tuesday 9th April
Colchester United
v Stockport County
Harrogate Town v Grimsby Town
Mansfield Town v Forest Green Rovers

So it's wait and see for Sutton. Grimsby could put themselves almost to safety with a win at Harrogate. Don't like Colchester and FGR's chances, but you never know.
 

Greenacres

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I think Grimsby are pretty much safe as far as us catching and passing them is concerned, they would need to lose all their games and we would need to average two points a game from our remaining four...I don't think either are likely to happen...another win for the fishy folk should just about do it, as far as we are concerned, they then just need to worry about Colchester and Sutton.
 

Stocky

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Can't look past Forest Green and Sutton. Colchester will find enough with their games in hands to edge away.

Delighted Grimsby have got away from the argy bargy. Hopefully learn from a few mistakes this season and not be in the same situation. Their recruitment was bad and still not sure on Artell at all for them.
 

Optipez

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Bottom two have left themselves a mountain to climb, too far adrift in January I think. Unusual for the bottom two to be there all season, normally one drops in to the relegation slots late on but I just think Colchester will do just enough.
 

Chris FGR

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I'm just fed up of being 24th. Spent most of last season and a fair bit of this there, every time you look at the table it's depressing af. At the very least if we do go down again I hope we don't end up finishing bottom of the league for 2 seasons running.
 

Optipez

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I'm just fed up of being 24th. Spent most of last season and a fair bit of this there, every time you look at the table it's depressing af. At the very least if we do go down I hope we don't end up finishing bottom of the league for 2 seasons running.
If you do go down I think you're in better shape to come back up than most who drop, as long as Vince keeps funding the club. It's not the case that you're teetering on bankruptcy like quite a few who drop and have to do a radical cutting of budget to stay afloat.
 

Greenacres

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If you do go down I think you're in better shape to come back up than most who drop, as long as Vince keeps funding the club. It's not the case that you're teetering on bankruptcy like quite a few who drop and have to do a radical cutting of budget to stay afloat.
From conversations yesterday it would appear that Dale's financial state is somewhat uncertain at the moment, despite appearing in the Times rich list, his latest ex-wife is intent on getting her share of his fortune...and has apparently stated that any donations he makes to political parties should come from his share of the pot and not hers. Also, interestingly, it would appear that funding of our "new" ground is dependant on him selling his remaining share of Ecotricity...which he tried to do as we were heading into the energy crisis and couldn't find a buyer. I'm not sure that he is currently in a position to maintain the current funding model...the club has been cutting costs over the past few months, which is definitely sensible and suggests it might be planning for next season in the National League.
 

Chris FGR

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I don't see us back in the EFL for a while tbh. Too much instability on and off the pitch. If Cotterill stays we can hopefully stabilise but if he doesn't a third relegation isn't out of the question.
 

Gunit

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Can't look past Forest Green and Sutton. Colchester will find enough with their games in hands to edge away.

Delighted Grimsby have got away from the argy bargy. Hopefully learn from a few mistakes this season and not be in the same situation. Their recruitment was bad and still not sure on Artell at all for them.
I instinctively thought that’s Grimsby safe after yesterday but 4 of their final 5 games are away and they’ve struggled on the road. They are still likely to pick up the minimal number they need but you just never know. Lose the next couple and Colchester Tuesday week could be huge and I’d back the home side in that one. Some definite straw clutching on my part but clutch I will. It would be nice if they were still needing points (or a point) going into that game for sure. They do also have a nice back up in Swindon at home.
 

Cloudy

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I instinctively thought that’s Grimsby safe after yesterday but 4 of their final 5 games are away and they’ve struggled on the road. They are still likely to pick up the minimal number they need but you just never know. Lose the next couple and Colchester Tuesday week could be huge and I’d back the home side in that one. Some definite straw clutching on my part but clutch I will. It would be nice if they were still needing points (or a point) going into that game for sure. They do also have a nice back up in Swindon at home.
First week in April and Grimsby have lost once away this year! ( Barrow)
 

Son of Cod

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I instinctively thought that’s Grimsby safe after yesterday but 4 of their final 5 games are away and they’ve struggled on the road. They are still likely to pick up the minimal number they need but you just never know. Lose the next couple and Colchester Tuesday week could be huge and I’d back the home side in that one. Some definite straw clutching on my part but clutch I will. It would be nice if they were still needing points (or a point) going into that game for sure. They do also have a nice back up in Swindon at home.
Not sure I'd fully agree with that. We've been hard to beat on the road for some time now. Last weekend, Barrow were the first team to beat us away since we lost at Mansfield on Boxing Day. We haven't won many so I can see what you're getting at, but even if we don't beat Swindon I think we're capable of grinding out enough on the road. I think if we beat Swindon that'll be enough, but the table might well be looking a bit scarier than it does right now before that match.
 

Son of Cod

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Can't look past Forest Green and Sutton. Colchester will find enough with their games in hands to edge away.

Delighted Grimsby have got away from the argy bargy. Hopefully learn from a few mistakes this season and not be in the same situation. Their recruitment was bad and still not sure on Artell at all for them.
The recruitment wasn't as bad as you're suggesting, to be fair. The players that were already in the squad not being good enough this season has been as much to blame, if not more to blame than the new players. We were hamstrung in midfield as we only had enough wiggle room to make one change in that department in the summer, for instance. Defensively, it's been a mixed bag so a bit harder to call but that's the area of the squad you're probably looking at and saying that we recruited poorly in in the summer. With that being said though, I think they've not had good protection from a poor midfield until the signing of Curtis Thompson. In attack, we're stronger than last season and that's despite losing John McAtee who is a top player at this level and George Lloyd who is a decent player at this level. Artell's recruitment has generally been good since coming in too. I'm really hoping for wholesale changes in midfield in the summer as that's been our problem area for two seasons now in my opinion and that's even when you consider how poor the defenders have been at times this season. The lack of consistent creativity in the middle for us has been a problem for too long now.
 

Gunit

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Not sure I'd fully agree with that. We've been hard to beat on the road for some time now. Last weekend, Barrow were the first team to beat us away since we lost at Mansfield on Boxing Day. We haven't won many so I can see what you're getting at, but even if we don't beat Swindon I think we're capable of grinding out enough on the road. I think if we beat Swindon that'll be enough, but the table might well be looking a bit scarier than it does right now before that match.
I think you’ve pretty much agreed with what I said. Yeah you’ll likely be fine, but still a touch of work to do and pressure could come back on. And I’m doing my best to find a little hope!
 

Gladders

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Not sure I'd agree in us struggling on the road, at least not recently, we may be bottom of the away table but we lost 5 out of our first 8 games away. Since then we have lost twice in 11. Draws should good enough for us in our last 4 away games.

One win should pretty much see us safe anyway, hopefully we get that before we face Colchester! But if not our last two games should be against a side who are already on the beach and another resting players for the play-offs. 3 more points for us would see us 7 in front of Sutton and 10 in front of FGR, meaning Sutton and FGR need to win all their games to overtake us due to GD.
 
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GTFCfish

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I looked at it earlier and even if we only get 2 more points which out of 5 games we should easily do, then to catch us Sutton would have to win 2 and draw 1 of their last 3 games and FGR would have to win 3 and draw 1 of their last 4 games neither of which sounds likely.
So basically we’re safe.
 

Gunit

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That spells the end of FGR you’d have to say. Colchester and Grimsby edged out. Good night for us but we have to beat Harrogate Saturday or we’re gone. Was not expecting to still be alive at this stage a few weeks back.
 

GTFCfish

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All Stockport aren’t we? :wub:
IMG_4414.jpeg
IMG_4413.jpeg
IMG_4412.jpeg
 

OneDecentLester

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I'm just fed up of being 24th. Spent most of last season and a fair bit of this there, every time you look at the table it's depressing af. At the very least if we do go down again I hope we don't end up finishing bottom of the league for 2 seasons running.
Yep been there. That’s exactly what happened to us with back to back 24th placed finishes during 16/17 & 17/18 season. Would feel like a bit of a full circle moment for us if you did get relegated, with us coming back up and you heading down after we got relegated at your place back in 2018. Horrid scenes on that side terrace, still remember it clear as day.
 

Chris FGR

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Back in 04-05 we lost 3-1 at Morecambe to seal (what we thought) was our relegation from the Conference, with one game to spare.

19 years later and it looks very much like the same thing is going to happen, with us being mathematically relegated at Morecambe next week. Nice bit of deja vu.
 

Bianconeri 1862

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Back in 04-05 we lost 3-1 at Morecambe to seal (what we thought) was our relegation from the Conference, with one game to spare.

19 years later and it looks very much like the same thing is going to happen, with us being mathematically relegated at Morecambe next week. Nice bit of deja vu.
Any chance you can hold on until the last game of the season so we can relegate you.
Know you are loved, but not by me. :)
 

Chris FGR

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Any chance you can hold on until the last game of the season so we can relegate you.
Know you are loved, but not by me. :)

Nope, that would mean winning a couple of games. Which isn't happening, sorry about that.

I'm sure your lot will be more then happy to make do with just rubbing our noses in it anyway.
 

Meadow

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Meh, didn't like it up here anyway. Back to Solihull & Tamworth it is.
Tamworth is an excellent day out. I went there in our promotion season and was drinking in a pub with a group of their supporters before the match. Turned out we had some mutual friends.
 

JJ1990

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47 - Mathematical Safety
46 -
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 - Expected Survival 23/24, Grimsby(43)
42 -
41 - Colchester(42)
-----------------------------------------------------
40 -
39 - Sutton(44)
38 -
37 -
36 - Forest Green(44)

FGR's tenure in the EFL looks to be drawing to a close. Back to back defeats to 2 promoted sides is no disgrace, but it has ultimately sealed their fate barring an all time miracle. Sutton too were praying for divine intervention, but Colchester beat Crawley to put them in deep trouble.

Colchester get themselves out of the bottom 2, but still need to get a couple more wins to ensure things aren't nervy going into the final week of the season against 2 promotion chasing sides. Grimsby are a point away from safety after getting the results they needed to drag themselves away from danger.

21st- Grimsby, 46 points, -15 GD: Colchester(A), Swindon(H), Crawley(A)
22nd - Colchester, 41 points, -19 GD: Grimsby(H), Notts County(A), Doncaster(H), Crewe(H)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd - Sutton, 40 points, -25 GD: Crawley(H), MK Dons(A)
24th - Forest Green, 36 points, -36 GD: Morecambe(A), Notts County(H)

Forest Green are toast. A Colchester draw tomorrow relegates them given their massively inferior goal difference. Sutton still have hope, but it's fading and another Colchester win would likely be enough to send them down given they've got MK Dons away on the final day and as such, probably won't manage more than 3 points from their final games.

Tuesday 16th April
Colchester United
v Grimsby Town

What looked like a 6 pointer a few weeks ago has less stakes on it. Although I'm sure Colchester will want a win to give themselves breathing room.
 

Ainsty

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I was indifferent to who out of Sutton or Colchester went down, but after our match on Saturday, I'm happy if we see the back of Sutton. I get they were playing for their lives in L2 but I haven't seen a dirtier team on and off the ball this season. Come on Colchester.
 

FGR-Star

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Tamworth is an excellent day out. I went there in our promotion season and was drinking in a pub with a group of their supporters before the match. Turned out we had some mutual friends.
I e been to Tamworth more than once, it is anything but an excellent day out! Awful town, awful ground, awful atmosphere and we will most likely get beat!!
 

Conker

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I was indifferent to who out of Sutton or Colchester went down, but after our match on Saturday, I'm happy if we see the back of Sutton. I get they were playing for their lives in L2 but I haven't seen a dirtier team on and off the ball this season. Come on Colchester.

Sutton are indeed like that, but Colchester are worse under slimfast Steve Evans.
 

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