Relegation thread

[Glasshalffullpools]

Yes , Donnelly was poor , the midfield simply don't help either the defence or the attack , that's what we need to be looking at

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Defeats for all four of our relegation combatants means it is as you were in the relegation "scrap" after 39 games played...

21st. Hartlepool United - Pts 41 (-16) Portsmouth (H), Morecambe (A), Carlisle (H), Leyton Orient (A), Barnet (H), Cheltenham (A), Doncaster (H)
22nd. Cheltenham Town - Pts 39 (-16) Morecambe (H), Wycombe (A), Crawley (A), Grimsby (H), Blackpool (A), Hartlepool (H), Portsmouth (A)
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23rd. Newport County - Pts 33 (-21) Crawley (H), Exeter (A), Yeovil (H), Plymouth (A), Accrington (H), Carlisle (A), Notts County (H)
24th. Leyton Orient - Pts 32 (-33) Wycombe (H), Cambridge (A), Luton (A), Hartlepool (H), Crewe (A), Colchester (H), Blackpool (A)

Four home games for our competitors on April Fools' Day.

Hartlepool face stern opposition in Portsmouth and won't be expected to win that game at all, a point would be a very good result for the monkey hangers if they can get it!

Cheltenham face a Morecambe side who've suffered 6 straight defeats. If it wasn't for Morecambe's annual good starts and a small surge of form during January and February, they'd easily be 24th in this league as there is very little quality in that side. If Cheltenham win this fixture, they could well secure safety realistically if Newport and Orient don't win.

If Newport want to be playing in the Football League next season, any run of form has to start on Saturday when Crawley come to Rodney Parade. This is a must-win fixture for County and a loss for them will all but end the relegation battle realistically should Cheltenham win. I say this with confidence as no side has ever been relegated from the Football League after having a 9 point lead over 23rd after 40 games. The historically tragic 2010-11 Lincoln side held an 8 point lead over Barnet after 40 games but Barnet's GD was superior, meaning Hartlepool would probably be 99% safe should Newport fail to win on Saturday irrespective of their own result.

Leyton Orient fans may have accepted their fate, but stranger things have happened in football. However, with it being a home game and given the O's appalling home record, it's more than likely going to be a Wycombe victory and a week closer to the inevitable drop. Sorry O's Fans!

 

[mowgli]

We won't win at Leyton Orient mate as we are shit under a fucking useless manager. @ainsworthout.

 

[Chief Rocka]

Saturday is just a write off for us, we haven't scored past Portsmouth in the previous 8 fixtures with them

Had a few 0-0's like, that'd do!

 

[Glasshalffullpools]

I was looking at Morecambe away for our next point/s even before yesterday

 

[Si Robin]

The Morecambe game will be the last one I see this season. God I hope we win.

Just can't see it with Milton in charge though.

 

[Vanni]

Can someone change the thread title to 'The Relegation Thread featuring Carlisle United' please? Take your time, I'm only thinking ahead for next season.

 

[BelizeHatter]

Sad to see a club with the stature of Orient dropping into the non League abyss. Good luck O's. Hope you can get your behind the scenes shit together. We know how you feel. The bad news is you'll think its sunk in....... until you see the fixture list next season.

 

[BelizeHatter]

The good news is we are a shining beacon of an example that its more than possible to rise from the ashes in a blaze of magnificent glory ...................and ascend to the dizzy heights of being completely mediocre again!!!!

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Cheltenham getting a vital win here it seems, if Newport and Portsmouth both hold on Hartlepool fans just might be sweating a bit...

 

[Chief Rocka]

No sweating here, this weekends fixtures were always gonna look unfavourable for us, we had a tough home game the others all had winnable homes.

Next week is key.

 

[Vanni]

Yep. I fully expected Pools to lose and Newport to win, though I thought their win would be more comfortable. Next week is where it's at, and Newport have got to beat Exeter to give themselves a chance. If they don't then a point at Morecambe will also be acceptable to the Poolies, though obviously they will thinking they can get all 3 pts.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

So Hartlepool lose 2-0 at home to Pompey, Cheltenham get a vital win vs Morecambe to stop their particular rot, Newport remain alive (just about) with 3 points against Crawley and Leyton Orient lose at home again to Wycombe.

So after 40 games played here's the table...

21st. Cheltenham Town - Pts 42 (-14) Wycombe (A), Crawley (A), Grimsby (H), Blackpool (A), Hartlepool (H), Portsmouth (A)
22nd. Hartlepool United - Pts 41 (-18) Morecambe (A), Carlisle (H), Leyton Orient (A), Barnet (H), Cheltenham (A), Doncaster (H)
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23rd. Newport County - Pts 36 (-20) Exeter (A), Yeovil (H), Plymouth (A), Accrington (H), Carlisle (A), Notts County (H)
24th. Leyton Orient - Pts 32 (-31) Cambridge (A), Luton (A), Hartlepool (H), Crewe (A), Colchester (H), Blackpool (A)

With 5 points separating 22nd and 23rd, the gap has once again closed. In the whole 30 year history of automatic promotion/relegation between the Football League and the Conference, only four sides have overhauled a deficit of 5 or more points after 40 games to survive.

In 1986-87 (the very first season of this) Rochdale were 8 points behind Lincoln after 40 games (Lincoln had played 2 more). Lincoln managed 3/12 points whilst Rochdale managed 12/18 to survive and send the Imps down.
In 2005-06, Torquay were 6 points adrift of Oxford after 40 games yet managed to get 13 out of 18 points compared to Oxford's 4 out of 18 to survive.
In 2010-11, Lincoln (again) were 8 points ahead of Barnet. However, Lincoln managed 1/18 points in their run in whilst Barnet got 10/18 to survive.
In 2013-14, Northampton overhauled a 6 point deficit to Bristol Rovers with 13/18 points compared to Bristol Rovers 4/18 points to send the Gas down.

The 8th April sees a pivotal round of away fixtures take place for our not-so-fantastic four. Cheltenham make the trip down the A40 to Wycombe hoping to get a win closer to safety. Hartlepool cross the Pennines to play a Morecambe side who have lost 7 games in a row (and will be included in this thread if they don't start picking up points and Newport do). Newport travel across the Severn Bridge and down the M5 to sunny Exeter who are targeting a playoff push whilst beleaguered Leyton Orient will make their way up the M11 to Cambridge should their game not fall to rumoured strike action on Orient's part.

The neutral observer would think that Hartlepool will get the win they need at Morecambe and if they do, then it's all on Newport at St James' Park to prolong this relegation battle...

 

[Sestonpoolie]

Fortunately for us we seem to have the indian sign over Morecambe.We've beat them the last 3 seasons there & can't remember the last time they beat us.
Still think it'll be between them & Cheltenham to join Orient

 

[Si Robin]

If Kyle Storer can stop himself from getting suspended, we should be safe now. It's no coincidence that all but one of our wins have come with him in the team, and he's been suspended for 15 of them. One of those players who you don't really appreciate until he's not there.

No Scott Brown next week against Wycombe though, and our number two has been injured for a good few weeks now. Not sure throwing in an untried 19 year old will be the best decision.

 

[Glasshalffullpools]

The main thing here is only 6 to play , just 1 win for Pools and Cheltenham makes Newport's task more difficult ....Pools next 5 games should be worth at least 5 points , meaning Newport need 10

 

[E10rifle]

No Scott Brown next week against Wycombe though, and our number two has been injured for a good few weeks now. Not sure throwing in an untried 19 year old will be the best decision.

If it's any consolation, based on today's evidence Wycombe are absolutely fucking awful.

 

[Soup Ladle]

Despite a bad weekend for us, I still suspect we'll do enough to stay up. We always do, don't we?

 

[Chief Rocka]

Worried? Me? Nah.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Back to back 1-0 gritty wins for Newport have really thrown a spanner in the works in this relegation battle after 41 games, with complacency rife amongst certain teams in the bottom third of the division that think they're already safe *cough* CREWE *cough*, I reckon everyone from Crewe and below still have a chance of going out of the Football League next season if Newport keep up their current form of scabbing 1-0 wins.

17. Crewe Alexandra - 48 points (-11) Notts County (H), Yeovil (A), Leyton Orient (H), Plymouth (A), Barnet (H)
18. Crawley Town - 48 points (-15) Cheltenham (H), Accrington (A), Carlisle (H), Cambridge (A), Mansfield (H)
19. Morecambe - 47 points (-17) Stevenage (A), Colchester (H), Exeter (A), Wycombe (H), Luton (A)
20. Yeovil Town - 46 points (-13) Newport (A), Crewe (H), Grimsby (A), Stevenage (H), Colchester (A)
21. Cheltenham Town - 43 points (-14) Crawley (A), Grimsby (H), Blackpool (A), Hartlepool (H), Portsmouth (A)
22. Hartlepool United - 42 points (-18) Carlisle (H), Leyton Orient (A), Barnet (H), Cheltenham (A), Doncaster (H)
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23. Newport County - 39 points (-19) Yeovil (H), Plymouth (A), Accrington (H), Carlisle (A), Notts County (H)
24. Leyton Orient - 32 points (-34) Luton (A), Hartlepool (H), Crewe (A), Colchester (H), Blackpool (A)

For the likes of Crewe, Crawley and Morecambe, one win will surely see them safe barring sorcery. Yeovil will probably be safe if they beat Newport on Friday whilst Leyton Orient are as good as down and will go down on Friday if they lose and Hartlepool and Cheltenham both achieve victory.

Crewe play perennial bogey side that are currently in devastating form Notts County, that's a loss as in my lifetime we've lost all five games at home to them. I also fancy Morecambe to lose at Stevenage and Leyton Orient to lose at Luton, the other three fixtures are tough to call however...

Crawley vs Cheltenham is very interesting. Crawley's recent home form is a bit patchy and Cheltenham seem to be coming back to form now Gary Johnson is coming back from illness and handling first team matters. I reckon Cheltenham will nick that and bring this pack of teams even closer to one another. Hartlepool vs Carlisle will go either way as well. I reckon Pools will defeat an out of form and out of sorts Carlisle who must've been shell-shocked after their capitulation at home to Notts County.

The game that defines this horrible relegation battle is Newport vs Yeovil. A Yeovil win and you could say that they, Crawley, Crewe and Morecambe will be 99.9% assured of league football next season irrespective of their results on that day. You could also say that Cheltenham and Hartlepool could make Newport's job really difficult if they were to win too. However, a Newport win and a few losses to the teams around Yeovil will blow this relegation battle wide open and you just watch them win the true Welsh way which is a standard boring 1-0 win as they clog their way to victory for the third game running.

End the season now...

 

[Chief Rocka]

I'm still not particularly worried about us just yet (despite being closer than ever to the swirling non league abyss) and feel like our remaining fixtures look a lot 'better' than say Cheltenham's, four points over Easter would be a great start, if we don't beat Orient with their myriad of woes and collection of first team toddlers we may as well just nominate ourselves to take the last relegation place and save everyone else the fart on of having to compete.

Cheltenham v Pools 2nd last game of the season cold be a fun one

 

[Luke Imp]

Fair play to Newport for giving it a bit of a go. 11 points adrift to 3 points in a month isn't bad going.

 

[Youpies]

Crewe and Crawley are safe. No worries for either side.

Pools and Cheltenham should have some concerns, if Newport can suddenly continue this form, those two are well in it

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Crewe and Crawley are safe. No worries for either side.

Pools and Cheltenham should have some concerns, if Newport can suddenly continue this form, those two are well in it

All it takes is for Newport to beat Yeovil, then us to lose to you lot and then Yeovil to beat us and we'll be right in the scrap again. Our appalling records vs Notts, Yeovil and Orient (at home) coupled with the complacency of the club at the moment have me shit scared we won't get the one win we need to be truly safe whilst others below us will do just about enough to overtake us. It genuinely wouldn't surprise me if Orient decided to turn up at our place and scab a win like Newport did because our players think the game is won against the toss in this division before a ball is kicked. We also have a horrific habit of going clear and then trying to make our own fate be decided on the final day (apart from our awful relegation season last season).

Hopefully Newport lose 2 of their final 5 and that'll be us safe for good. I think they'll beat Yeovil but they have a horrible four games to round off the season...

 

[PoolieTom]

There's no chance of us getting more than 48 points this year, so one win for Yoevil upwards guarantees safety. Beating us alone will probably guarantee Cheltenhams safety. Newport will probably leapfrog the lot of us

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

There's no chance of us getting more than 48 points this year, so one win for Yoevil upwards guarantees safety. Beating us alone will probably guarantee Cheltenhams safety. Newport will probably leapfrog the lot of us

With Carlisle, Orient and Barnet as your next three games I reckon you'll be on 49-51 points after the Barnet game...

 

[PoolieTom]

We will be closer to 42 than we are 49 after those three games. We are the team everyone is saying 'oh they'll be alright', but we will inevitably slip into relegation zones and show no fight to get out of them. Even a lot of our own fans are overly optimistic. For some reason they are not seeing just how utterly shit we are. It is worse than some of the shit Ronnie Moore served up, and that is saying something.

 

[AdamStag]

Certainly didn't expect Newport to pick up the way they have after binning off Westley.

The board will be kicking themselves if they miss out by a few points pondering whether they should have done the deed a fortnight or so earlier.

 

[TrinidadsNumberOne]

Don't even think Newport are that good at all but winning 1-0 is a very good habit to have in a relegation battle so fair play to them.

They've got a lot of sides fighting for something in the run in though which could work against them, especially if they were to concede the first goal in these games which would make their tight defensive approach at the back useless in a relegation scrap.

Providing we both lose as I expect us both to on Good Friday, I genuinely believe that the loser out of us and Yeovil on Easter Monday will be deeply rooted in this scrap with 3 games to play if Newport keep winning. It's why I'm hoping for a Yeovil win on Friday and Plymouth to be in a position to confirm promotion on the Monday.

 

[oakroader]

The quicker Newport and their pitch fuck off and join their country mates in the Welsh league ...the better !
Yaki da