Russian Plane Crash

[Dave-Vale]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...russian-official-blames-external-factor-egypt

Russia were very quick to deny that it wasn't downed by ISIS but this is looking the more likely explanation by the hour.

Where is departed user to give us some rationale behind this? Is it possible for the plane to break up in the air and end up in this many pieces without some kind of explosion? Surely if it was a tech error the pilots would have sent a distress call and made some sort of attempt at crash landing it. The wreckage looks very similar to the wreckage of that flight that was shot down over the Ukraine.

If it was downed by ISIS (as they're claiming) then there's going to be hell to pay. Putin will not like it.

 

[slaphead]

I too am intrigued by this, simply because I flew back from Sharm three weeks ago.

I personally will not rule out a maintenance failure, they do happen. There have been plenty of incidents where inadequate maintenance has brought down airliners. Also, the Russians are not exactly renowned for the scrupulous approach to servicing, especially in the smaller budget type airlines. I would like to see the history of this aircraft before it went to Metrojet, who owned it etc. Apparently, this aircraft suffered a tail strike on take-off in 2001 and took 3 months to repair. If that repair wasn't done correctly and you were to couple that with, say, a failed cabin door and a rapid decompression, that could conceivably rip the tail off, which is what seems to have happened here.

However, looking at the main debris field, the plane looks like it's just dropped straight out of the air, minus it's tail. There is then every chance that could have been caused by a bomb on board.

Apparently, there are reports that some Airbus staff who have seen the wreckage have said there are no initial signs of external damage which would rule out a missile strike.

As others have said, if it is a bomb, then I would suggest the consequences for the perpetrators could be dire should Putin seek retribution.

At the moment, it is pure speculation with various people with vested interests try to paint their own pictures, I'm sure the story will become clearer in the coming weeks.

 

[Dave-Vale]

Cheers for that insight, FT.

Caught the tail end of this (no pun intended) on the news just and I think Russian investigators have officially ruled out a technical or mechanical error.

If true, oh dear.

 

[mowgli]

Putin will put every availiable resource into wiping out IS if it's found they did plant a bomb,have a feeling IS have just caused their own downfall which should be fun to watch on the news.

 

[Dave-Vale]

Possibly.

He might get some backlash from Russian citizens though as they're not going to be happy that his actions (bombing IS) may have led to this.

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

daesh don't have the equipment to shoot down a commercial aircraft at cruising altitude, which is like 30k feet. they likely have a few manpads, but their range is like 15k. if it was them it'd have to be a bomb or a suicide bombing. it's easier to execute a suicide bombing, as u can move around the explosive and do shit with it obviously. most bombings are due to people lacking the ideology needed to persuade people to die for a cause. daesh obviously do. so if it was daesh i'd say it was a suicide-bombing. or, like, the plane had altitude problems, descended then got hit by a jihadi seeing their 15 mins of fame?

this is good reading too though. a china airlines flight crashed due to damage sustained to the tail 20 years previously. as slap said, this egyptian flight also suffered similar damage 10 years ago. i find it easier to believe russians would poorly maintain their aircraft and their chief exec would lie his way out of litigation, than daesh smuggled a bomb on a major airline. bombs aren't new to egypt or the sinai, it'd be a surprising failure in security

edit: and even if it was daesh no way putin would go after daesh. more likely he'd flatten aleppo and some rebels and claim he was hitting raqqa

 

[Magic]

Pretty much any explanation for an air crash is seriously unlikely though isn't it? Most seem to come to fruition through a combination of factors which are so rare that you're just tremendously unfortunate if you're caught up in it.

You would like to think that more sinister explanations were just as unlikely but who knows.

 

[slaphead]

Fully agree with what you say FT, mechanical failure does seem to be highly unlikely, but again, it's not impossible. Airbus engineers have already viewed the wreckage, and if there was a failure it would have been immediately pretty obvious and I think that Airbus would have got that information out, no matter how unofficially, but they have been thus far very quiet. Also the airline were very quick to dismiss either technical or crew error, how could they possibly know in the short time after the crash?

My thinking it is terrorism, probably a bomb placed in in the baggage hold by a ground handler. I very much doubt a suicide bomber would have got on board, I can attest now that security at Sharm is tighter than a nuns chuff for people boarding flights. What the security airside is like though I have no idea. Even if a bomber got on board, I'm pretty sure a Middle Eastern type would look pretty out of place on a plane full of Russians.

Another point for me that says terrorism is that the wreckage had barely hit the ground before the Egyptian tourist authorizes were saying it wasn't a bomb or missile strike, trying to assure travellers that their already fragile tourist trade is safe. At the moment, they are pretty paranoid about security over there, it is tighter than I've ever know in 15 years of visiting Sharm.

Whatever the cause, I think there are going to far reaching consequences for tourism in the area if it is a terrorist attack, also I can imagine Putin would like nothing more than to have an excuse to chuck his weight about in the region if that is the case.

As it stands, I'm booked to go again in April, at the moment I'm not changing my plans, but would like to see a resolution fairly quick smart.

 

[Stagat]

Even if a bomber got on board, I'm pretty sure a Middle Eastern type would look pretty out of place on a plane full of Russians.

Is a bomber forced to be a Middle Eastern type?

 

[Dave-Vale]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...s-moment-before-jet-disappeared-a6718941.html

Looking more and more likely that it wasn't something technical.

 

[Dave-Vale]

Is a bomber forced to be a Middle Eastern type?

I'm sure I read everybody on board was Russian apart from a few Ukrainians and somebody from Belarus.

 

[slaphead]

Is a bomber forced to be a Middle Eastern type?

Given the region, and if they are trying to destabilize the Egyptian economy, probably. If it was a Chechen rebel attack for instance, they would have had to board through the passenger security, which is exceptionally tight. A local would find it far easier to gain access I would imagine.

However, I could have worded Middle Eastern Type better, though I am not sure what the collective for them is.

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

there ain't many chechens in the sinai

 

[Stagat]

Given the region, and if they are trying to destabilize the Egyptian economy, probably. If it was a Chechen rebel attack for instance, they would have had to board through the passenger security, which is exceptionally tight. A local would find it far easier to gain access I would imagine.

However, I could have worded Middle Eastern Type better, though I am not sure what the collective for them is.

Fair enough. I thought you meant a passenger rather than airport staff, which I now think you meant. Still not sure, mind. Been a long day. And this is all conjecture too obvs. Fuck it. I'm out.

 

[slaphead]

There's security when boarding planes in Egypt?

Having been on flights in Egypt on 7 or 8 occasions, I have boarded a plane using the wrong boarding pass as they were in a rush to get people on planes so gave you random peoples boarding passes. You can carry on board any liquid you want, we would regularly have bottles of water in our hand luggage from the hotel and go through the scans with no problem, they only gave a shit if you had some coral in your luggage! We've walked through without having our luggage scanned when it was very busy too.

Recently? I came back three weeks ago, and the security have been ramped up massively from when I was out there four months prior to that. There are now three X-ray checks, one as you go in where you bags are scanned, a second at passport control and there is now a third, new one before you enter the departure lounge. At all three our hand luggage was searched despite being X-rayed. And my water was confiscated. The taxi company I always use our there when we arrived advised that we give it an extra hour to clear security when we departed and I'm very glad we did.

 

[silkyman]

there ain't many chechens in the sinai

Only needs one.

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

be surprised if there's even that. they tend to stick out in arab countries. sinai is an insurgency not a war, any half-decent ruskies are gonna fight in syria

 

[HertsWolf]

Uncontained fan disk failure? Debris from uncontained turbine failure could enter fuel tanks. A well known example was UA232 but that was caused by the tail-mounted engine and the DC-10 managed to keep flying. Just.
There's also the TWA800 tragedy which seems eerily similar (and everyone was looking at terrorism for that disaster as well).

While the distance from Sharm el-Sheikh to St Petersburg is well within the range for the A321, it was in a max configuration and possibly quite heavy. Could it also have been bunkering fuel (even to the extent of filling the dry bays around the engines?)

Also interesting - given that the aircraft suffered a major tail-strike in 2001 - that some reports are suggesting a clean break at the rear bulkhead. And that the tail was found 5km from the rest of the debris. I wonder if the IAA kept the inspection records from that 2001 repair....

And is it me but does it seem odd that the outline of the wings in the debris shows no sign of the engines at all....?

Great tragedy for the families of those who died, and I do hope the bodies are returned home for them quickly.

 

[Blitzballer]

New developments

http://www.airlive.net/2015/10/breaking-metrojet-a321-crashes-in-sinai.html

 

[TheArtfulDodger]

Sounds like a bomb, I imagine the security service must have been infiltrated for this to occur. Flights stopped for now, there'll be a massive clamp down now and I imagine Russia will look for revenge.

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

it happened with the china flight, no?

 

[HertsWolf]

it happened with the china flight, no?

A 747, 13 years ago. Completely different set of circumstances.

It's like thinking the crankshaft on your Honda failed in a particular way because it happened to your mates Vauxhall.

Disagree. It's actually like saying that the crankshaft failure on two 2WD saloon cars failed, perhaps there are similarities in design, construction, materials or maintenance that could be related or significant or useful to consider.
Indeed - and back to the air disaster - while aircraft design, manufacture and materials have changed hugely in the last decades, many of the human aspects and the procedural elements have actually not changed significantly, especially with aircraft operating much of their lives in jurisdictions with less robust oversight. (I'm talking about the Lebanon and Russia rather than Ireland, although shortcuts and system failures can happen in even in EU countries and the US).

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

more and more intelligence agencies coming out suggesting it was a bomb. theory i've heard going around was that daesh bribed someone at their airport. would have expected the black box analysis to have finished by now tho

 

[HertsWolf]

After writing the reply above I did have a glance through some of the older AAIB reports and was surprised at the number of times things should have been done, but weren't. Actually, no I'm not surprised. come to think of it. No matter how many regulations are in place, human beings will do things in contravention, intentionally or unintentionally.

 

[Dave-Vale]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ht-down-over-egypt-by-explosion-a6724506.html

Looks like FT is the winner.

I bet Putin is furious.

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

well now putin is going to have to bomb the moderate opposition EXTRA hard now

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

this is a good read

 

[Stevencc]

It was alright for five words.

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

i see what u did there

 

[Stevencc]

#Ian4mod