The Relegation Thread

[valefan16]

Decent night for us as another game down and the toughest on paper and other results almost all went the way we wanted bar Oxford, on paper they were all very winnable ties for Cambridge, Oxford and MK.

If MK lose Saturday I think a point will do it for us as they host Barnsley the week after.

Basically if we are 4 clear of MK come 5pm Saturday I think it’s likely job done.

 

[Si Robin]

We will be mathematically safe if we beat FGR on Saturday and Cambridge don't beat Plymouth.

Now, if we could just, for once, turn up against FGR....

 

[Luke Imp]

The game in hand for Oxford, Cambridge and Accrington have the potential to draw MK in.

 

[valefan16]

The game in hand for Oxford, Cambridge and Accrington have the potential to draw MK in.

MK have an awkward run in, probably equal to ours with Burton's form and Barnsley at home.

 

[DippyDon]

The game in hand for Oxford, Cambridge and Accrington have the potential to draw MK in.

We were always still in it, it's just now looking more likely that our 7 game unbeaten run has been more to do with our opposition being poor on the day than us turning a corner.

I'm still hopeful that draws against Fleetwood and Burton away could be enough (Barnsley at home I've written off entirely) but judging by the latters form I don't want to be going into that final game at the Pirelli needing other results to go in our favour.

 

[Chris FGR]

Yesterday’s results confirmed us mathematically in 24th, with 3 games still to play. First position set in stone in the table?

 

[leedsvaliant]

Yesterday’s results confirmed us mathematically in 24th, with 3 games still to play. First position set in stone in the table?

In hindsight, I think we have both come up before we were ready. I think our owners thought it would be another 1/2 seasons before we challenged. We then had a mad panic of recruitment culminating in some very dodgy loans and signings. I'm hoping a summer with a bit more thought will help us.

 

[Greenacres]

In hindsight, I think we have both come up before we were ready. I think our owners thought it would be another 1/2 seasons before we challenged. We then had a mad panic of recruitment culminating in some very dodgy loans and signings. I'm hoping a summer with a bit more thought will help us.

I'm hoping for a summer of reflection and rebuilding. It is good to see that the other three teams promoted with us last season have all done OK...dare I say, they are better run than us and haven't used their ideology and determination to do things another way (rather than the proper and sensible) to turn their season into a complete and utter cluster. Good luck for next season, the same to the Gas and Grecian fans, hopefully we will be back with you all before too long.

 

[valefan16]

In hindsight, I think we have both come up before we were ready. I think our owners thought it would be another 1/2 seasons before we challenged. We then had a mad panic of recruitment culminating in some very dodgy loans and signings. I'm hoping a summer with a bit more thought will help us.

It was always a 2 year plan to get promoted and we did go up a year too early, we ended up with too many L2 players on 2 year deals and a 9 week close season after the final to break and sign players.

After releasing all out of contract players and signing a whole new squad after the 20/21 season I don't think they ever thought it would end up with us promoted straight away without any consolidation.

Exeter took years to get up of challenging for example. If we can survive the next three weeks then we can hopefully have the first proper break in 2 seasons to build to progress next season. Worth noting in 2021 summer we came back really early and went Champney's (oddly a few miles from where i live!) to try and gel after the mass turnover a bit so we've had what 4 weeks off as a club in 23 months come the end of the season.

 

[YEO YEO YEO]

It is going to an interesting watch for sure, Oxford, Cambridge, Accrington all due to play each other ..

 

[Luke Imp]

It's gonna be a right scrap between MK, Oxford, Cambridge and Accrington. All have at least two games you'd fancy them to pick up points in.

 

[kieran_vale]

I’d say looking at that Oxford will keep chipping away and just about scrape it. Cambridge seem to have found a new lease of life since we kindly played them into form and by all accounts even in defeat midweek played well enough to get something. For me it’s all about how MK do this Saturday. Anything less than 3 points and I think it’s them who are staring down the barrel. I’m assuming Accy’s relegation may be confirmed before their game with Cambridge.

 

[valefan16]

I’d say looking at that Oxford will keep chipping away and just about scrape it. Cambridge seem to have found a new lease of life since we kindly played them into form and by all accounts even in defeat midweek played well enough to get something. For me it’s all about how MK do this Saturday. Anything less than 3 points and I think it’s them who are staring down the barrel. I’m assuming Accy’s relegation may be confirmed before their game with Cambridge.

A few factors that could swing it,

Can we get another point? If we don't we could be the ones to go.

MK is intriguing as their run in is similar to ours and they've only beaten strugglers in recent months, lose to Fleetwood they face a tough home game v Barnsley then a tricky away at in form Burton.

Oxford don't score goals, 42 shots in 2 games and 1 goal shows where their problems lay so its if they have the goals to beat Accrington and FGR as it suggests even if they create the chances you usually would against those they need to take them. They seem to let teams off the hook a lot with a lack of goals.

Cambridge have a tricky tie at the weekend but seem to be better sitting in and hitting on the break, Accrington and FGR they will need to go at more you'd think, they need to win both those two I think so the Accrington game away is going to be the key one. They've only beaten us away since October and have 3 of their 4 away so its how that goes, could go into them on the back of a couple of defeats so can they then re-bound.

Accrington need the points, if they beat Cambridge and Oxford then they could survive at their expense even with poor results against Bolton and Pompey away.

Morecambe picking up 4 points could throw them back into the mix but probably relies on those Accy x Cambridge/Oxford games being draws to give them a chance.

Could be a few twists and turns, hopefully we beat Bristol Rovers and drag ourselves out of it, depending on MK I think a draw might be enough but ideally we win at the weekend, Accrington and Oxford drop points and Oxford fail to beat Cheltenham and we could relax come Tuesday at 9:45pm.

 

[Laker]

I’ve written off catching Vale as I think they’re either too far ahead of us already or will get the last point or two they need.

We could do with Oxford and Dons not winning this weekend as I can’t see us getting much from Plymouth. I’m then nervous for Oxford at home to Cheltenham as that’s definitely winnable.

Accrington are in a strange position in that they are going to have to beat either Portsmouth or Bolton. While I don’t write anything off, I’m going to assume they won’t win either.

If we enter our Saturday game at Accrington no more than three behind Oxford and no more than four behind Dons then I think we have a chance. I think our game v Accrington could be a mental game as we’ll both have to win or else we’ll be relegated. We could just about get away with a draw mathematically but realistically we need to beat them too.

I still think it’s a tall order for us and I think the current bottom four will go.

 

[leedsvaliant]

I’ve written off catching Vale as I think they’re either too far ahead of us already or will get the last point or two they need.

We could do with Oxford and Dons not winning this weekend as I can’t see us getting much from Plymouth. I’m then nervous for Oxford at home to Cheltenham as that’s definitely winnable.

Accrington are in a strange position in that they are going to have to beat either Portsmouth or Bolton. While I don’t write anything off, I’m going to assume they won’t win either.

If we enter our Saturday game at Accrington no more than three behind Oxford and no more than four behind Dons then I think we have a chance. I think our game v Accrington could be a mental game as we’ll both have to win or else we’ll be relegated. We could just about get away with a draw mathematically but realistically we need to beat them too.

I still think it’s a tall order for us and I think the current bottom four will go.

I agree with regards Vale. I think we'll pick up a point somewhere in the last 3 and it's a pretty tall order for all the clubs below us to have a better record.

Having said that, it's typical Vale that we go into the last game needing something.

A win on Saturday puts us safe but we won't make it that easy for ourselves.

 

[coronakopite]

I think we might get to 46 points (which would be a cracking 16 points from 9 games since 1 April) but might well need 47 or more to compensate for our goal difference. Vale probably escape if they get something on Saturday, their best chance. Oxford probably "just" need to match our results against FGR and Accrington to top us. My optimism rests on MK getting no more than 2 points from Fleetwood (A) and Burton (A).

I've been sucked back in after accepting relegation was inevitable since February and nailed on when MK took 3 points off us. I've done my runs of the Fishy Calculator, having avoided it all season, and have my tickets for Accrington and Burton. The lads deserve the support and staying up will probably now feel as good as promotion, especially as we'll be physically at the games.

Saturday is a free hit - I hope we don't jeopardise the final 3 games with cards, injuries or a pasting. And we might blag a point - stranger things have happened. I hope there's a good growth of algae on the Home Park pitch.

If Accrington beat us that's probably all but it. As it would take a win at Burton and luck elsewhere to take it to the wire.

It will be nice, if not enjoyable, and definitely feasible to have ourselves, Oxford and MK on 43 points (Vale on 46) going into the final game. Even if we won, we'd be depending on Accrington or Burton to save our skins - or Plymouth to put a shed load past Vale.

That's as optimistic as I can get - and I've already identified Wetherby Road, Plough Lane and the Racecourse Ground as my only potential new venues next season.

 

[GeneralLee]

To be honest I think MK and Port Vale are safe for no other reason than every side beneath are just as, if not even more useless.

As has been pointed out we can't score goals. Worryingly that probably isn't going to change before the end of the season. The best we can hope for is to draw our way to the end of the season and hope everyone else loses.

Looking at the table I still think everyone is safe barring Cambridge, Morecambe, Accrington and ourselves.

I think Accrington and Morecambe are down if they lose this weekend. If we win Saturday we will stay up and I think it'll be Cambridge down. But... Sadly I have a funny feeling Cambridge will win Saturday. Once we hit the bottom four I don't see the bottom four changing sadly.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

I agree with regards Vale. I think we'll pick up a point somewhere in the last 3 and it's a pretty tall order for all the clubs below us to have a better record.

Having said that, it's typical Vale that we go into the last game needing something.

A win on Saturday puts us safe but we won't make it that easy for ourselves.

You guys will be fine, too many poor sides need wins. Makes it even more strange that DC was given his marching orders at this stage

 

[kieran_vale]

You guys will be fine, too many poor sides need wins. Makes it even more strange that DC was given his marching orders at this stage

Will never understand it myself much less like it. Unfortunately nobody from the club has made themselves available to explain it since it happened. Will be very instructive how we play on Saturday, if we fly into you from the start it tells me they stopped playing for DC in which case I hope we win and then they fuck off anyway for costing my favourite manager since Rudge his job. If it’s back to the Vale since the start of January and it turns out they’re just no good it goes without saying I hope they all fuck off in three weeks time regardless.

 

[valefan16]

You guys will be fine, too many poor sides need wins. Makes it even more strange that DC was given his marching orders at this stage

Normally I would agree but with two of them facing both Accy and FGR that could easily be 6 points made up.

I more resting hopes on MK just getting a couple of draw's max from their three.

As for DC who know's, the remit was to stay up first season and we are in a position to do that, no real explanation and early bird season ticket deadline next week.

DC is on Linkedin and doesn't seem to be a mutual thing, saying about glass houses and thanking all the fans personally who commented on his post and re-iterating his love for the club and fans.

It's left to fans and rumours now which never helps as we saw recently with the rumours about behind the scenes.

 

[valefan16]

Will never understand it myself much less like it. Unfortunately nobody from the club has made themselves available to explain it since it happened. Will be very instructive how we play on Saturday, if we fly into you from the start it tells me they stopped playing for DC in which case I hope we win and then they fuck off anyway for costing my favourite manager since Rudge his job. If it’s back to the Vale since the start of January and it turns out they’re just no good it goes without saying I hope they all fuck off in three weeks time regardless.

Its bittersweet if we win, shows they were downing tools (combined with the efforts Tuesday) but obviously want us safe.

Just cant wait until the season is over and I get a break from it all for a few months.

 

[Arbury]

I’m pretty confident we’ll get the points to stay up, we’re playing well enough at the minute and anyone from vale downwards is bang in this for me.

KTF.

 

[kieran_vale]

Its bittersweet if we win, shows they were downing tools (combined with the efforts Tuesday) but obviously want us safe.

Just cant wait until the season is over and I get a break from it all for a few months.

I think ultimately others in this thread are right we should be ok. Basically a lot of stuff has to align for it to happen and as below the bookies pretty much agree on that. Just marginally lower odds to survive than we were to win at Ipswich is nice. Clearly Cheltenham and Burton are more included nominally than anything else.

I am pretty phlegmatic about it if we did go down to be honest. While it would be annoying and avoidable it’s not the apocalyptic type thing dropping to the conference is for example. You just know though if we did we’d end up with bloody Swindon on the first game and that nonsense from the playoffs being revisited.

 

[valefan16]

I think ultimately others in this thread are right we should be ok. Basically a lot of stuff has to align for it to happen and as below the bookies pretty much agree on that. Just marginally lower odds to survive than we were to win at Ipswich is nice. Clearly Cheltenham and Burton are more included nominally than anything else.

I am pretty phlegmatic about it if we did go down to be honest. While it would be annoying and avoidable it’s not the apocalyptic type thing dropping to the conference is for example. You just know though if we did we’d end up with bloody Swindon on the first game and that nonsense from the playoffs being revisited.

Most have us at 18/1... shame though as it was 150/1 a couple of weeks back!

Prefer this statistics site though that has it at 2%!

League One Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League One predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[coronakopite]

Most have us at 18/1... shame though as it was 150/1 a couple of weeks back!

Prefer this statistics site though that has it at 2%!

League One Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League One predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

They have us at 39% to survive. That feels about right, with MK at 74% and Oxford at 84%, but I'm a bit more optimistic.

Best bookies' odds I can find for us to survive are 15/8 (35%). I'm tempted at that but I expect they'll be a bit longer after Saturday.

 

[Bartonyellow]

There is a lot of speculation on who is going down - reality is nobody knows.
There is always one that drops that nobody expects.
And I would not write Accrington off yet / they know how to do this, canny operators at this level.
It will go to the final day. The final 15 minutes even. We will have a big say in it with out last two home games - Cambridge and mk dons. So for the sake of others hopefully we still have the hunger to finish on a high and give them both a game. Cambridge have a good record at our place however.
It’s exciting now we are out of it, but bloody awful to be in it.
Who has the nerve to see it through.
I say the 4 to go down are -
Forest green, morecambe, Oxford and vale. But I’m usually wrong, you should see my acca every week.

 

[valefan16]

There is a lot of speculation on who is going down - reality is nobody knows.
There is always one that drops that nobody expects.
And I would not write Accrington off yet / they know how to do this, canny operators at this level.
It will go to the final day. The final 15 minutes even. We will have a big say in it with out last two home games - Cambridge and mk dons. So for the sake of others hopefully we still have the hunger to finish on a high and give them both a game. Cambridge have a good record at our place however.
It’s exciting now we are out of it, but bloody awful to be in it.
Who has the nerve to see it through.
I say the 4 to go down are -
Forest green, morecambe, Oxford and vale. But I’m usually wrong, you should see my acca every week.

If Accy survive they will likely have to beat Cambridge and Oxford which would possibly be terminal for Cambridge I would think as well, those playing each other and Oxford v Accrington could be huge games though in the outcome.

 

[Chris FGR]

It’s exciting now we are out of it, but bloody awful to be in it.

Agreed, likewise now we’re out of it it’s an exciting battle to watch from a distance. Although of course wouldn’t have actually minded being in it.

Morecambe have too much to do imo, probably need 6-7 points out of their last 3. For Accy to have any chance of staying up they have to beat both Oxford & Cambridge imo. Both of those sides play us which could be a real advantage and make things tough for the two sides below them.

46 points should be enough so I can’t see Vale going down and in any case I feel like they could well pick up something on Saturday. If they do they’re definitely safe. MK will fancy getting a win v either Fleetwood or Burton, get that and they should be alright.

For me it’s a shoot out between Oxford & Cambridge to join ourselves, Morecambe & Accrington.

 

[Bartonyellow]

If Accy survive they will likely have to beat Cambridge and Oxford which would possibly be terminal for Cambridge I would think as well, those playing each other and Oxford v Accrington could be huge games though in the outcome.

Which is exactly why you should never listen to my predictions.
I had Lincoln v Barnsley down as a score draw in the week.
I’m not much better with the horses either.

 

[Luke Imp]

Ironically enough, the draws that Oxford and MK have been picking up to keep their heads above water in recent weeks might come back to bite them on the arse because of Cambridge's recent form. It's potentially setting up for either MK or Oxford to have to play catch up all of sudden in the final couple of games.