Week 1 - Analytics

[LordJord]

So I am going full football nerd this year as I have grown ever more interested into the analytics side of the game. I am going to provide a little insight into the weeks fixtures that may not be obvious or reported because, well lets face it we are in league 2.

The idea being that we can start to get an idea of who the real stand out performers are as the season progresses, outside of just what we see on the two occasions we see the opposition or from 9 seconds of Quest highlights.

Let me know what stats if any you are particularly interested in as there are a ton available to me. Also if there are any players in particular you are interested in let me know.

The best attacking team of the week were Newport County. They had an XG of 3.11 which was by far and away the highest of the weekend, with Crawley coming in second at 2.38 XG. On the other side, Cheltenham had the least goal threat of the week, with an XG of only 0.19.

Leyton Orient had the most possession of the week at 65.8%, Northampton were second with 64.9%. Against Cheltenham were bottom with only 34.2% of the ball.

With that being said Forest Green attempted the most passes with 497, Colchester only one behind with 496. Forest Green also attempted 12 through balls which again was a league high.

Colchester attempted 14.4 passes per minute of possession which was the best in the league, so they tried to move the ball at a real pace. Northampton on the other hand attempted only 8 passes per minute of possession, no surprise we didn’t score!

Macclesfield fielded the youngest side with an average age of 23.4, Morecambe with an average age of 28.2 fielded the oldest side.

In terms of individual players, Joss Labadie had the highest XG with 1.21, Dieseruvwe was second with 1.15 and Padraig Amond third with 1.13

In terms of creating changes Maguire-Drew has an XA (expected assists) of 0.74, Nicky Adams has 0.65 and the only one who actually provided an assist of the top 3, Ohman of Grimsby has an XA of 0.61.

Nicky Adams attempted 11 crosses himself, with Scott Wiseman delivering 9 for Salford.

James Brophy attempted 12 dribbles from LWB which is impressive, Grego-Cox and Daniel Powell both attempting 11.

Not shocking that James Hanson was involved in the most aerial battles, with a mighty 34, Jamille Matt and Danny Rose attempted 28.

Forest Greens left side saw a ton of the ball, as Morton and Mcginley both attempted the most passes individually, with 79 and 74 individually.

 

[shoddycollins]

Where did you get your xG data from? They're very different to those calculated by experimental361 (in which shots are categorised based on the BBC match commentaries online). He has Newport 2.4 and Salford 2.1 as the highest xGs for the weekend with Crawley down in 11th. Seems like yours must be categorising shots differently.

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

Looks good, but what does XG stand for?

 

[LordJord]

Where did you get your xG data from? They're very different to those calculated by experimental361 (in which shots are categorised based on the BBC match commentaries online). He has Newport 2.4 and Salford 2.1 as the highest xGs for the weekend with Crawley down in 11th. Seems like yours must be categorising shots differently.

I have always enjoyed the Experimental 361 data, wasnt sure where they get their data from. I use a tool is used by a number of clubs / scouts etc called Wyscout. It breaks down all the individual chances. I am pretty new at looking at all the data etc so I am sure it will become more refined as the season progresses, but all the information looks to be well justified with the video footage etc.

 

[JJ1532]

Looks good, but what does XG stand for?

Expected Goals. It calculates just how likely every shot taken in a match is to being scored. So, a long range screamer that 99/100 goes miles wide isn't rated that highly, yet a tap in from a yard or two out is very high. Penalties usually rank at 0.75, at least according to Experimental361, which is what sometimes gives teams an unusually high score.

I think a more accurate figure is to look at a teams XG total once you remove penalties.

Let me know what stats if any you are particularly interested in as there are a ton available to me. Also if there are any players in particular you are interested in let me know.

Do you have any graphs or charts which show any of the data? Would make for some interesting reading.

 

[Roger Stone]

So I am going full football nerd this year as I have grown ever more interested into the analytics side of the game. I am going to provide a little insight into the weeks fixtures that may not be obvious or reported because, well lets face it we are in league 2.

The idea being that we can start to get an idea of who the real stand out performers are as the season progresses, outside of just what we see on the two occasions we see the opposition or from 9 seconds of Quest highlights.

Let me know what stats if any you are particularly interested in as there are a ton available to me. Also if there are any players in particular you are interested in let me know.

The best attacking team of the week were Newport County. They had an XG of 3.11 which was by far and away the highest of the weekend, with Crawley coming in second at 2.38 XG. On the other side, Cheltenham had the least goal threat of the week, with an XG of only 0.19.

Leyton Orient had the most possession of the week at 65.8%, Northampton were second with 64.9%. Against Cheltenham were bottom with only 34.2% of the ball.

With that being said Forest Green attempted the most passes with 497, Colchester only one behind with 496. Forest Green also attempted 12 through balls which again was a league high.

Colchester attempted 14.4 passes per minute of possession which was the best in the league, so they tried to move the ball at a real pace. Northampton on the other hand attempted only 8 passes per minute of possession, no surprise we didn’t score!

Macclesfield fielded the youngest side with an average age of 23.4, Morecambe with an average age of 28.2 fielded the oldest side.

In terms of individual players, Joss Labadie had the highest XG with 1.21, Dieseruvwe was second with 1.15 and Padraig Amond third with 1.13

In terms of creating changes Maguire-Drew has an XA (expected assists) of 0.74, Nicky Adams has 0.65 and the only one who actually provided an assist of the top 3, Ohman of Grimsby has an XA of 0.61.

Nicky Adams attempted 11 crosses himself, with Scott Wiseman delivering 9 for Salford.

James Brophy attempted 12 dribbles from LWB which is impressive, Grego-Cox and Daniel Powell both attempting 11.

Not shocking that James Hanson was involved in the most aerial battles, with a mighty 34, Jamille Matt and Danny Rose attempted 28.

Forest Greens left side saw a ton of the ball, as Morton and Mcginley both attempted the most passes individually, with 79 and 74 individually.

Nice stats mate. Confirms the long ball tactics of Mansfield to lump it long to Rose. The cart horse they brought on late on Saturday looks like he’s there to use hit nut primarily too.

 

[LordJord]

Expected Goals. It calculates just how likely every shot taken in a match is to being scored. So, a long range screamer that 99/100 goes miles wide isn't rated that highly, yet a tap in from a yard or two out is very high. Penalties usually rank at 0.75, at least according to Experimental361, which is what sometimes gives teams an unusually high score.


I think a more accurate figure is to look at a teams XG total once you remove penalties.



Do you have any graphs or charts which show any of the data? Would make for some interesting reading.

I havnt made many but can do so no problem. Here are just a few examples:

 

[Trapdoor]

XG is a horrible label. In an analytics context it just makes me think you're talking about XGBoost.

 

[Lborostag]

Nice stats mate. Confirms the long ball tactics of Mansfield to lump it long to Rose. The cart horse they brought on late on Saturday looks like he’s there to use hit nut primarily too.

15 fouls for Newport compared to 11 for Mansfield. Confirms Newport thuggery

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

Expected Goals. It calculates just how likely every shot taken in a match is to being scored. So, a long range screamer that 99/100 goes miles wide isn't rated that highly, yet a tap in from a yard or two out is very high. Penalties usually rank at 0.75, at least according to Experimental361, which is what sometimes gives teams an unusually high score.

I think a more accurate figure is to look at a teams XG total once you remove penalties.

Do you have any graphs or charts which show any of the data? Would make for some interesting reading.

So a player/team who has an XG of 1.0 is expected to score a goal a game, a player/team with 0.5 = one every two games?

 

[Conker]

I remember how high Mansfield scored every week last season, which is annoying.

 

[redjed]

15 fouls for Newport compared to 11 for Mansfield. Confirms Newport thuggery

Jesus wept....... 15 fouls to 11...... hmmmmm but you forgot to add you had 5 yellows to Newports 2 ....... Who's the thug's?

 

[shoddycollins]

So a player/team who has an XG of 1.0 is expected to score a goal a game, a player/team with 0.5 = one every two games?

If everyone was equally competent at shooting. If you get 2 xG in a game but only score 1 you can write it off as bad luck. If you get 60xG over the course of the season but only score 40 goals then your strikers probably need some practice.

 

[Roger Stone]

15 fouls for Newport compared to 11 for Mansfield. Confirms Newport thuggery

No, ref fell for your usual antics. Same old, same old. Rose diving all over the shop will explain that difference.
Tell me my old, how come Mansfield have the worst disciplinary record of any club, by a country mile, since you got back in L2 in 2013/14 ? You’ve had the worst record of anyone in this league for 4 of the last 6 seasons. And have raced to the bottom already this season. Quite some achievement that. During this period you’ve had a better record than us once, in 16/17.
And yet you lot still berate others as being cloggers and thugs ? Time you got the Optrex out I fancy.

 

[Gladders]

Great thread, shame it's already being ruined by stag and Newport fans, you got your own thread.

Obviously data after one game is pretty meaningless, but I see you posted arial battles, can you also post arial battles won?

 

[Vanni]

If, and that's a big if, I'm interpreting the XG graph correctly, then we are going to outscore Bradford over the course of this season. Not by much but still......

Bear in mind that the Bantams are favs with the bookies for promotion, so that makes the U's what, champions by Christmas?

 

[Lborostag]

Great thread, shame it's already being ruined by stag and Newport fans, you got your own thread.

Obviously data after one game is pretty meaningless, but I see you posted arial battles, can you also post arial battles won?

I posted one sarcastic response to a Newport fan. Not my fault their weird fan took such offence. As someone already pointed out, these kind of stats are too painful after last year where it basically showed how many chances we missed on a regular basis

 

[Deepcut Cobbler]

Still trying to understand the mechanics of the statistical process but carry on Lordy, I'll get it eventually.

 

[shoddycollins]

Great thread, shame it's already being ruined by stag and Newport fans, you got your own thread.

Obviously data after one game is pretty meaningless, but I see you posted arial battles, can you also post arial battles won?

After what seemed like ten months of nothing but meaningless transfer speculation and Salford its been a nice relief to kick things back off again with the Amber grudge. I've missed this sort of shit.

 

[LordJord]

Great thread, shame it's already being ruined by stag and Newport fans, you got your own thread.

Obviously data after one game is pretty meaningless, but I see you posted arial battles, can you also post arial battles won?

No problem. I have taken a sample of the 20 players that averaged the most aerial duels per 90 mins, so if there are a few subs in there that is why! Of those these are the numbers won based on their % won. Of the list Hanson is top partly because he was involved in so many more than most others. For example Charlie Goode won 14 of his 16.07 per 90 (extra time is included), which is 86.67%. Hansen won 58.82% of his 30.6 headers per 90, but that means he won 18 because of how many he was involved in.

Basically what i am saying is there are often caveats!

 

[LordJord]

Great thread, shame it's already being ruined by stag and Newport fans, you got your own thread.

Obviously data after one game is pretty meaningless, but I see you posted arial battles, can you also post arial battles won?

This might be a better yardstick. This includes only attacking forwards / wingers who were involved are involved in at least 10 aerial duels per 90 minutes. So the figures below show that of the forwards that are targeted a lot in the air, Hanson was the most effective in week 1.

 

[shoddycollins]

Understandably no player who featured in the display of total football that was Carlisle v Crawley features on either measure. Just cloggers like Grimsby.

 

[LordJord]

Understandably no player who featured in the display of total football that was Carlisle v Crawley features on either measure. Just cloggers like Grimsby.

I didnt think Carlisle had any strikers anyway going by the transfer thread!

 

[shoddycollins]

I didnt think Carlisle had any strikers anyway going by the transfer thread!

We have couple now... three when the Balotelli deal is confirmed.

 

[LordJord]

We have couple now... three when the Balotelli deal is confirmed.

Balotelli - Raskish Bingham partnership could be deadly.

 

[shoddycollins]

Balotelli - Raskish Bingham partnership could be deadly.

I thought the Bingham deal was dead in the water but signing Balotelli could be the statement of intent we need to convince Bingham to join.

 

[Gladders]

Cheers for the stats, although aerial battles are not just offensive, would be interestimg to see the defensive ones won too. Though again after one game it's quite meaningless but over the course of the season be good to see.

 

[TeviotMoose]

Don't suppose you could add a team abbreviation to some of those aerial individuals? I'm not yet totally au fait with the entire squad list of all 24 teams!

 

[Vanni]

Thanks for doing this LordJord! It's looking like it's going to be one of the better threads on here

 

[Casey]

From reading that I would conclude that our six foot seven inch centre forward did not do enough to worry the statisticians in aerial battles.

Either we're using him incorrectly or he ain't doing enough.

Casey