CaliforniaGull
Member
- Joined
- May 28, 2021
- Messages
- 57
- Reaction score
- 64
- Points
- 18
- Supports
- Torquay United
Hi all,
New here, but long-time reader. Love seeing the Halifax fans fight each other, the Brotherhood willy waving, and all the banter regarding the league's best player Cal Roberts/Jordan Davies/Simon Denton. To complicate matters further, the league's best player is in fact Connor Lemonheigh-Evans.
To introduce myself: I'm a Torquay fan who lived most of my life in London, but moved to California just before the pandemic. It's been funny, as I didn't get to see many home games when I was in the UK, yet since my move out here I've probably seen the most Torquay matches in one season in my time supporting the club. Only missed a few due to time differences and TV rights, but I did get up at 4am to watch our Stockport match. (Not doing that tomorrow, sorry Alty.) So, I'm going to be a bit sad when everything goes back to normal. Can we make livestreaming a thing forever? (Also, 7am Saturday kick offs are great, highly recommend. Unless you lose.)
Anyway, another fact about me: I'm the kind of sad bastard that actually enjoys using Microsoft Excel. I've also had a bunch of time waiting for a Green Card. Put the two together, add the consequence to Torquay's missing out on the title*, and you get my attention on potential play off combinations.
Just because I'm getting practice explaining the complicated National League play-offs to curious "soccer" loving Americans:
5th plays 6th, with the winner playing Torquay
4th plays 7th, with the winner playing 3rd
Winners of those matches play one another for a spot in the Football League.
So, here's the deal, lads. Tomorrow, there are 729 potential outcomes among the various matches that will influence the ultimate finishing positions of the play-off contenders. We focus entirely on:
Bromley v Notts County
Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham
FC Halifax v Chesterfield
Hartlepool v Weymouth
Solihull Moors v Eastleigh
Yeovil v Stockport
Bear in mind I did not weight for likelihood in any given match, we're just looking at what could happen. So as far as I'm concerned Weymouth beating Hartlepool is as likely as the reverse, and the draw. Anything can happen in football - who predicted us drawing at home to Barnet last week? (I did, but I'm a Torquay fan who grew up in Barnet, sod's law applied.)
Anyway, here's your stats!
Finishing position chances:
1: Sutton, 100%
2: Torquay, 100%
3: Stockport, 78%; Hartlepool, 28%
4: Hartlepool, 67%; Stockport, 22%; Notts County, 11%
5: Notts County, 78%; Wrexham, 11%; Hartlepool, 11%
6: Wrexham, 37%; Chesterfield, 22%; Eastleigh, 13%; Bromley, 12%; Notts County, 11%; Halifax 5%
7: Wrexham, 29%; Chesterfield, 26%; Bromley, 15%; Eastleigh, 15%; Halifax, 15%
Right away, that's almost useless because Wrexham can't possibly finish 6th and 7th at the same time, but it gives an idea of how things can play out, and does illustrate the strength of Wrexham's position. Here, then, is an aggregate chance of any particular team just qualifying for a play off berth:
Torquay, 100%
Stockport, 100%
Hartlepool, 100%
Notts County, 100%
Wrexham, 77%
Chesterfield, 48%
Eastleigh, 28%
Bromley, 27%
Halifax, 20%
And here is the percentage chance of specific Eliminator matches:
Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 13.39%
Hartlepool v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Bromley: 5.74%
Stockport v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 4.92%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Notts County v Chesterfield: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Wrexham v Notts County: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Eastleigh: 4.37%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Chesterfield: 3.96%
Notts County v Chesterfield, Hartlepool v Wrexham: 3.69%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Wrexham: 3%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Halifax: 3%
Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Wrexham v Notts County: 2.87%
Stockport v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 2.19%
Stockport v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 2.19%
There's 26 other combinations, but they all have less than 2% chance, most less than 1%, but it's almost inevitable that the eventual combination will be one of those, in fact I can just imagine that the least likely scenario of Stockport v Eastleigh, Wrexham v Notts County at 0.28% (or 2 in 729) will be the one that ends up happening! And if it does, just remember how much time you wasted reading all this!
It seems highly likely, whatever the perms, that Torquay will get knocked out by a late Mark Ellis goal and my interest in all this lark dies for a few months.
Thank you, and good luck to your respective clubs this weekend.
(*Congratulations to Sutton.)
(**I am not good with maths or stats or anything, so it's possible much of this is total bollocks. I tried.)
New here, but long-time reader. Love seeing the Halifax fans fight each other, the Brotherhood willy waving, and all the banter regarding the league's best player Cal Roberts/Jordan Davies/Simon Denton. To complicate matters further, the league's best player is in fact Connor Lemonheigh-Evans.
To introduce myself: I'm a Torquay fan who lived most of my life in London, but moved to California just before the pandemic. It's been funny, as I didn't get to see many home games when I was in the UK, yet since my move out here I've probably seen the most Torquay matches in one season in my time supporting the club. Only missed a few due to time differences and TV rights, but I did get up at 4am to watch our Stockport match. (Not doing that tomorrow, sorry Alty.) So, I'm going to be a bit sad when everything goes back to normal. Can we make livestreaming a thing forever? (Also, 7am Saturday kick offs are great, highly recommend. Unless you lose.)
Anyway, another fact about me: I'm the kind of sad bastard that actually enjoys using Microsoft Excel. I've also had a bunch of time waiting for a Green Card. Put the two together, add the consequence to Torquay's missing out on the title*, and you get my attention on potential play off combinations.
Just because I'm getting practice explaining the complicated National League play-offs to curious "soccer" loving Americans:
5th plays 6th, with the winner playing Torquay
4th plays 7th, with the winner playing 3rd
Winners of those matches play one another for a spot in the Football League.
So, here's the deal, lads. Tomorrow, there are 729 potential outcomes among the various matches that will influence the ultimate finishing positions of the play-off contenders. We focus entirely on:
Bromley v Notts County
Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham
FC Halifax v Chesterfield
Hartlepool v Weymouth
Solihull Moors v Eastleigh
Yeovil v Stockport
Bear in mind I did not weight for likelihood in any given match, we're just looking at what could happen. So as far as I'm concerned Weymouth beating Hartlepool is as likely as the reverse, and the draw. Anything can happen in football - who predicted us drawing at home to Barnet last week? (I did, but I'm a Torquay fan who grew up in Barnet, sod's law applied.)
Anyway, here's your stats!
Finishing position chances:
1: Sutton, 100%
2: Torquay, 100%
3: Stockport, 78%; Hartlepool, 28%
4: Hartlepool, 67%; Stockport, 22%; Notts County, 11%
5: Notts County, 78%; Wrexham, 11%; Hartlepool, 11%
6: Wrexham, 37%; Chesterfield, 22%; Eastleigh, 13%; Bromley, 12%; Notts County, 11%; Halifax 5%
7: Wrexham, 29%; Chesterfield, 26%; Bromley, 15%; Eastleigh, 15%; Halifax, 15%
Right away, that's almost useless because Wrexham can't possibly finish 6th and 7th at the same time, but it gives an idea of how things can play out, and does illustrate the strength of Wrexham's position. Here, then, is an aggregate chance of any particular team just qualifying for a play off berth:
Torquay, 100%
Stockport, 100%
Hartlepool, 100%
Notts County, 100%
Wrexham, 77%
Chesterfield, 48%
Eastleigh, 28%
Bromley, 27%
Halifax, 20%
And here is the percentage chance of specific Eliminator matches:
Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 13.39%
Hartlepool v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 6.01%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Bromley: 5.74%
Stockport v Chesterfield, Notts County v Wrexham: 4.92%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Notts County v Chesterfield: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Bromley, Wrexham v Notts County: 4.78%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Eastleigh: 4.37%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Chesterfield: 3.96%
Notts County v Chesterfield, Hartlepool v Wrexham: 3.69%
Hartlepool v Eastleigh, Notts County v Wrexham: 3%
Hartlepool v Wrexham, Notts County v Halifax: 3%
Hartlepool v Chesterfield, Wrexham v Notts County: 2.87%
Stockport v Halifax, Notts County v Wrexham: 2.19%
Stockport v Wrexham, Notts County v Chesterfield: 2.19%
There's 26 other combinations, but they all have less than 2% chance, most less than 1%, but it's almost inevitable that the eventual combination will be one of those, in fact I can just imagine that the least likely scenario of Stockport v Eastleigh, Wrexham v Notts County at 0.28% (or 2 in 729) will be the one that ends up happening! And if it does, just remember how much time you wasted reading all this!
It seems highly likely, whatever the perms, that Torquay will get knocked out by a late Mark Ellis goal and my interest in all this lark dies for a few months.
Thank you, and good luck to your respective clubs this weekend.
(*Congratulations to Sutton.)
(**I am not good with maths or stats or anything, so it's possible much of this is total bollocks. I tried.)