Promotion odds

[Devon_Lad]

14/1 for promotion and 50/1 for the league............fill your boots

As mentioned for the umpteen time, these odds are all short and will go longer. Only an absolute imbecile, so you, would take these prices.

 

[masi51]

As mentioned for the umpteen time, these odds are all short and will go longer. Only an absolute imbecile, so you, would take these prices.

surely the odds will come in once the bookies realise Exeter class of 22 will be tearing the league up !!

 

[BarrieOwl]

I'll wait til we see who's signed who but Ipswich look in good nick, Bolton were the most consistent after the turn of the year and will be in the mix.

Can't discount Posh, Oxford, Plymouth.

Can't say I've seen much of the promoted clubs so could go either way for em.


Roll on fixture release day.

 

[masi51]

I'll wait til we see who's signed who but Ipswich look in good nick, Bolton were the most consistent after the turn of the year and will be in the mix.

Can't discount Posh, Oxford, Plymouth.

Can't say I've seen much of the promoted clubs so could go either way for em.


Roll on fixture release day.

fair comments

 

[Bartonyellow]

I will reserve judgment on our odds - as hasselbank is on the way out the door, so let’s see who we replace him with. If he needs a lift to oakwell I will drive him up.
If we do get someone else in, who can harness the potential of what we have got, plus a few signings then we will be higher up the table.

 

[Bartonyellow]

I think the top 6 will be ( in no particular order )
Wednesday, Oxford, Wycombe, Ipswich, posh and Bolton.
Derby is too difficult to predict.

 

[BarrieOwl]

I will reserve judgment on our odds - as hasselbank is on the way out the door, so let’s see who we replace him with. If he needs a lift to oakwell I will drive him up.
If we do get someone else in, who can harness the potential of what we have got, plus a few signings then we will be higher up the table.

Strange punt by Barnsley.

Who would you want to replace him

 

[Bartonyellow]

Strange punt by Barnsley.

Who would you want to replace him

I think I’d take a punt on a good non league manager, someone young and hungry and dynamic, rather than the usual suspects- tbh nameswise I haven’t a clue at this stage. Nobody within the club is up to the job.
I do think Walsall got the best manager in Flynn so not sure who else is available.
We have had some good names over the years, and the chairman backs the managers well, and the fans are patient, so we usually punch above our weight on appointments, so see if we can do the same again.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Why on earth are Barnsley after Hasselbaink? He's never struck me as management material or a master tactician. Strange move by them if true.

 

[Bartonyellow]

Why on earth are Barnsley after Hasselbaink? He's never struck me as management material or a master tactician. Strange move by them if true.

I’m trying to work that out too.
Hopefully they don’t work it out. We want him gone. I can’t see me going to many games while he is there. 7 defenders and no strikers, it’s dire to watch. He has no tactical ability at all.

 

[Gassy]

To be fair Bournemouth and Brentford spent a hell of a lot. We are on a positive journey, one we’ve dreamt about being on for years whilst watching us struggle to stay in the EFL, lowest finishes in our history, getting dicked 6-2 by Lincoln in our own backyard.

Just mainly chuffed those kind of days are behind us and the future is bright again.

Championship is a huge step up, Wycombe and Burton did it under good ownership rather than big money but it’s tough, you’ve gone from our past experiences here having the odd big club drop in such as Sheffield Wednesday, Forest, Leeds or Wolves for the short term to having 5 or 6 huge clubs all at once.

We’ve got great ownership, decent investment and a club on the up but let’s just enjoy the ride and see what happens in terms of progress.

Hopefully DC has improved his contacts and overall management since with us as L1 was his undoing long term.

We did well for a few years at L1 level but that was based mostly on his NL/L2 promotion teams. Once our best players were sold to bigger clubs/walked on frees, he just didn’t have the experience or contacts to really compete at this level and it took us a good few years to clear out the dead wood tbh.

His contract management was also probably one of his biggest downfalls (if it was down to him) as these players brought in were on long contracts and big wages of 4k+ a week.

It’s ironically what started the demise of the club to L2. We were losing millions a year and GC turned an average team into promotion candidates but wasn’t given the budget to press on and he left. Then Garner was brought in to bring a more sustainable style of management and we all know the rest.

I’ll keep a keen eye on DC for the next few years, he will probably do well for 1/2 years at L1, but what will he do after that?

 

[Super_horns]

I’m trying to work that out too.
Hopefully they don’t work it out. We want him gone. I can’t see me going to many games while he is there. 7 defenders and no strikers, it’s dire to watch. He has no tactical ability at all.

Strange for someone who was so attacking and explosive as a player but he seems to be a very defensive minded manger.

 

[kieran_vale]

Hopefully DC has improved his contacts and overall management since with us as L1 was his undoing long term.

We did well for a few years at L1 level but that was based mostly on his NL/L2 promotion teams. Once our best players were sold to bigger clubs/walked on frees, he just didn’t have the experience or contacts to really compete at this level and it took us a good few years to clear out the dead wood tbh.

His contract management was also probably one of his biggest downfalls (if it was down to him) as these players brought in were on long contracts and big wages of 4k+ a week.

It’s ironically what started the demise of the club to L2. We were losing millions a year and GC turned an average team into promotion candidates but wasn’t given the budget to press on and he left. Then Garner was brought in to bring a more sustainable style of management and we all know the rest.

I’ll keep a keen eye on DC for the next few years, he will probably do well for 1/2 years at L1, but what will he do after that?

It’s definitely the next thing on his to do list now to have success at L1 level. Think he’s more than proven at L2 now, even at Walsall he’s done better than anyone else has there.

Without knowing what sort of structure he had in place at Rovers it’s hard to know how much the two compare but at Vale he’ll have David Flitcroft doing a lot of the recruitment stuff with our analyst. We do also have a strict wage structure though a lot of our deals are apparently incentive based.

At least there’s a good core to work with here and a number of them like Wilson and Conlon are of a good age to improve further too.

 

[Si Robin]

Why on earth are Barnsley after Hasselbaink? He's never struck me as management material or a master tactician. Strange move by them if true.

Barnsley don't know what they want - they want Hasselbaink, Michael Duff and Neil Warnock. Three very different managers/coaches.

 

[Gassy]

It’s definitely the next thing on his to do list now to have success at L1 level. Think he’s more than proven at L2 now, even at Walsall he’s done better than anyone else has there.

Without knowing what sort of structure he had in place at Rovers it’s hard to know how much the two compare but at Vale he’ll have David Flitcroft doing a lot of the recruitment stuff with our analyst. We do also have a strict wage structure though a lot of our deals are apparently incentive based.

At least there’s a good core to work with here and a number of them like Wilson and Conlon are of a good age to improve further too.

He brought in Tommy Widdrington at some point, I think while we were in L2 but can’t remember when exactly tbh.

The problem is at this level, you’re all happy and fine until some Champ club comes in on deadline day with a 500k bid for your out of contract striker which is too tempting to turn down and it’s pennies for them so nothing really to lose. That was where DC struggled IMO, so you (well all of us really) need to have a really good team in place for when this happens every year on January 31st

 

[Super_horns]

Barnsley don't know what they want - they want Hasselbaink, Michael Duff and Neil Warnock. Three very different managers/coaches.

After appointing 2/3 overseas coaches.

I mean know I cannot talk but seems like ours they don't really have a clear long term plan management wise.

I guess it didn't help Ismaël got poached by West Brom after a great season with Barnsley.

 

[leedsvaliant]

He brought in Tommy Widdrington at some point, I think while we were in L2 but can’t remember when exactly tbh.

The problem is at this level, you’re all happy and fine until some Champ club comes in on deadline day with a 500k bid for your out of contract striker which is too tempting to turn down and it’s pennies for them so nothing really to lose. That was where DC struggled IMO, so you (well all of us really) need to have a really good team in place for when this happens every year on January 31st

It feels like a lot of work goes in on the transfer side. We look at every aspect of a player to see if he'll fit as a person as well as a footballer. The recruitment and analyst team have done a sensational job really. We basically released every one last season and started again and out of several signings there was only a couple that didn't quite step up. To get a promotion winning side from scratch is pretty amazing.

Fortunately, we're also not in the absolute necessity territory to sell players. We'll only do what's right for the player and the club rather than cashing in on the first opportunity. After last season's recruitment I'm highly confident that it won't just be on Clarke's shoulders and there is a real team and process behind it.

Look at Garrity. When he signed, a very poor Oldham team were telling us he was rubbish. He's scored a dozen goals from midfield. Connor Hall is probably the best signing we've made in 20 years, he's a proper Rolls Royce defender but the Harrogate fans weren't exactly singing his praises.

 

[Gassy]

It feels like a lot of work goes in on the transfer side. We look at every aspect of a player to see if he'll fit as a person as well as a footballer. The recruitment and analyst team have done a sensational job really. We basically released every one last season and started again and out of several signings there was only a couple that didn't quite step up. To get a promotion winning side from scratch is pretty amazing.

Fortunately, we're also not in the absolute necessity territory to sell players. We'll only do what's right for the player and the club rather than cashing in on the first opportunity. After last season's recruitment I'm highly confident that it won't just be on Clarke's shoulders and there is a real team and process behind it.

Look at Garrity. When he signed, a very poor Oldham team were telling us he was rubbish. He's scored a dozen goals from midfield. Connor Hall is probably the best signing we've made in 20 years, he's a proper Rolls Royce defender but the Harrogate fans weren't exactly singing his praises.

Regarding the 2nd paragraph, that’s what we’re all told mate. But if the player wants to step up to the Championship, who wouldn’t really, then you’ll sell him.

DC never liked to give, until we were in L1, long contacts out. I’m guessing most of your players are out of contract next season?

 

[kieran_vale]

Regarding the 2nd paragraph, that’s what we’re all told mate. But if the player wants to step up to the Championship, who wouldn’t really, then you’ll sell him.

DC never liked to give, until we were in L1, long contacts out. I’m guessing most of your players are out of contract next season?

Nobody knows to be honest. Since DC came to the club contracts or extensions are treated like state secrets. On the retained list Worrall was due to be expiring this summer but clearly the club extended it on the quiet and just casually dropped in he was under contract.

Of course you’re right if someone bids the right sum of money or triggers release clauses etc (which I believe happened to DC at Rovers with Matt Taylor) then you’re always at risk of that but so far everything done indicates they’ll recruit the right way to find replacements.

 

[valefan16]

Regarding the 2nd paragraph, that’s what we’re all told mate. But if the player wants to step up to the Championship, who wouldn’t really, then you’ll sell him.

DC never liked to give, until we were in L1, long contacts out. I’m guessing most of your players are out of contract next season?

Nobody knows as we don’t disclose all the contracts, we’ve been quite clever for once and some have extensions we can trigger such as Nathan Smith who we expected may be difficult to keep and Worrall was meant to be out of contract this summer but is somehow still under contract!

We’ve started giving 3 year deals here and there for the first time since I recall.

 

[Gassy]

Haha classic DC, that. It’ll come out eventually tbf - it’s a love/hate relationship I found with contracts. Hopefully he’s learnt from his time here and can push you further onwards

 

[leedsvaliant]

Haha classic DC, that. It’ll come out eventually tbf - it’s a love/hate relationship I found with contracts. Hopefully he’s learnt from his time here and can push you further onwards

Yeah. He loves the smoke and mirrors! You never know who is injured, when they are due to return or whether they are in the squad at all! In fairness, it's worked for him so far!

I suspect he may have learned his lesson on transfers. I think he leaves a lot of the searching, scouting and analysis to Flitcroft and our analyst, whilst obviously having the final say. Our presentation to new signings is apparently phenomenal...a number of the signings have said how much research has been done into them as a player and a person and how they fit in to the squad and what strengths and weaknesses they have. I'd be buzzing if a prospective employer had done so much analysis on me.

I imagine when people turn up to Salford they just tell them how much money they are going to give them.

 

[leedsvaliant]

Just been looking at a prediction thing on YouTube. Far too early at the moment but it makes me smile when the predictions for the top 6 are basically the 6 biggest teams. Football just doesn't work like that unless you're in the Premier League. Your can guarantee that at least 2 of those teams will have an unexpectedly shite season and 2 or 3 teams expected to finish mid to bottom half will finish in the top 7 or 8.

Yes, there's a gap in terms of budget but at this level it doesn't make as much of a difference. League one teams can still ultimately only attract a certain level of player. Same in league 2....teams like Salford, Bradford and Mansfield thrown loads of money at it but certainly in Salford's case they just throw players together and hope for the best. Even those with the biggest budget in this league will still need to have a canny manager and a decent ethos. For the bigger teams, if they start badly the pressure can quickly grow and before you know it they are out of the running.

 

[masi51]

Just been looking at a prediction thing on YouTube. Far too early at the moment but it makes me smile when the predictions for the top 6 are basically the 6 biggest teams. Football just doesn't work like that unless you're in the Premier League. Your can guarantee that at least 2 of those teams will have an unexpectedly shite season and 2 or 3 teams expected to finish mid to bottom half will finish in the top 7 or 8.

Yes, there's a gap in terms of budget but at this level it doesn't make as much of a difference. League one teams can still ultimately only attract a certain level of player. Same in league 2....teams like Salford, Bradford and Mansfield thrown loads of money at it but certainly in Salford's case they just throw players together and hope for the best. Even those with the biggest budget in this league will still need to have a canny manager and a decent ethos. For the bigger teams, if they start badly the pressure can quickly grow and before you know it they are out of the running.

Think you are way off the mark. The top 10 in league one are streets ahead of anything in league 2
Add that there are decent managers like Coleman and Bonner who make there teams very hard to beat
Salford and Bradford change managers each season and i have never been convinced in Clough
Hence why they are stuck in lge2 despite throwing money
None of the teams promoted from league 2 will trouble the top 6.
Teams at the top of league 1 are paying 10k plus on certain players. Teams coming out of league2 cannot attract those players

 

[leedsvaliant]

Think you are way off the mark. The top 10 in league one are streets ahead of anything in league 2
Add that there are decent managers like Coleman and Bonner who make there teams very hard to beat
Salford and Bradford change managers each season and i have never been convinced in Clough
Hence why they are stuck in lge2 despite throwing money
None of the teams promoted from league 2 will trouble the top 6.
Teams at the top of league 1 are paying 10k plus on certain players. Teams coming out of league2 cannot attract those players

I don't think I said that teams coming up were likely to challenge did I ? You seem to have made that assumption.

How much certain teams are stupid enough to pay players that are not good enough for the Championship does not mean that they are worth that money. If they were good enough for a higher level, they could get 4 or 5 times that in the championship. Irrelevant of how much you throw at a player, there is still a ceiling on the quality because it's ultimately the 3rd tier. If they were really good they'd be playing in the championship or premier league.

I can virtually guarantee that the top 6 teams will not be made up of the top 6 teams in terms of size. At least 1, maybe 2 will miss out at the least. It has always been this way. If it were that easy to predict, bookies would never make money.

Of course, money makes a difference but it doesn't make the same difference at this level.

 

[SVH]

I think Port Vale fans are in for a bit of a shock if they think an Accrington or themselves are going to trouble the top 6.

This is a league of two leagues.

 

[masi51]

I don't think I said that teams coming up were likely to challenge did I ? You seem to have made that assumption.

How much certain teams are stupid enough to pay players that are not good enough for the Championship does not mean that they are worth that money. If they were good enough for a higher level, they could get 4 or 5 times that in the championship. Irrelevant of how much you throw at a player, there is still a ceiling on the quality because it's ultimately the 3rd tier. If they were really good they'd be playing in the championship or premier league.

I can virtually guarantee that the top 6 teams will not be made up of the top 6 teams in terms of size. At least 1, maybe 2 will miss out at the least. It has always been this way. If it were that easy to predict, bookies would never make money.

Of course, money makes a difference but it doesn't make the same difference at this level.

you are indeed correct with the statement not all top6 biggest clubs will get into the play-offs
But i will say the top six will come from the top 12 last season plus the three relegated clubs
Players like Mc Clean, Bannon and Brannigan are too good for lge1 but they played in lge1 last season
Two of them three will again ply there trade again in league 1 next season

 

[leedsvaliant]

I think Port Vale fans are in for a bit of a shock if they think an Accrington or themselves are going to trouble the top 6.

This is a league of two leagues.

Again, I didn't say I thought we'd trouble the top 6...I'd take mid table all day long. I think it would take us at least 3 or 4 years of incrementally improving the squad to be in with a chance of challenging the playoff spots.

Having said that, it's not the premier league....these teams are down here (and have stayed down here) for a reason. History and size means jack shit. There's the odd good player of course but they're plying their trade at this (some of them for 2 to 3 years) because the teams in leagues above don't deem them good enough to play higher.

Just like any of the bottom 2 leagues, every team will lose to teams that they don't expect. We thought we'd walk league 2 when we dropped back down and got our arses handed to us by some very small teams.

 

[masi51]

Again, I didn't say I thought we'd trouble the top 6...I'd take mid table all day long. I think it would take us at least 3 or 4 years of incrementally improving the squad to be in with a chance of challenging the playoff spots.

Having said that, it's not the premier league....these teams are down here (and have stayed down here) for a reason. History and size means jack shit. There's the odd good player of course but they're plying their trade at this (some of them for 2 to 3 years) because the teams in leagues above don't deem them good enough to play higher.

Just like any of the bottom 2 leagues, every team will lose to teams that they don't expect. We thought we'd walk league 2 when we dropped back down and got our arses handed to us by some very small teams.

You are playing in a 12 team league. Your aim is to finish above the bottom four. Nothing more nothing less
Also in that 12 team league are the three teams that finished above you last season and at least 2 that got promoted the season before................I dont see a bad team in lge1 at present.

 

[valefan16]

I think the bottom half of league one is not much better than league two, I mean we slapped Accrington 5-1 and beat Burton relatively comfortably with half our squad out last season and many teams below 50 points surviving shows that but the top ten are miles ahead, mostly big teams who’ve flopped for whatever reason but with big budgets plus solid sides like Wycombe, MK and Oxford who’ve pushed on over a number of seasons.

Whilst loads to be excited about and Vale have a bright future we need to have a solid season, our days knocking about at the arse end of league two are surely behind us but it let’s not get carried away and focus on developing the excellent work we’ve been doing and hopefully we can emulate the likes of Wycombe and Oxford over time.

We should aim to be half way, don’t want us to be aiming just to stay up or to finish 20th and don’t think that will be our aim, if we finish 13-16th il take that.