Who really had the easiest start?

[chief]

Lovely generosity. I assume you'll lay down and let us put 10 past you going by the amount of generalised bollocks we've copped during our stint!

If OneDecentLester hadn't called me out by my username the other day without tagging me we might have, but instead we'll just play out a 0-0 borefest.

 

[spireite]

If OneDecentLester hadn't called me out by my username the other day without tagging me we might have, but instead we'll just play out a 0-0 borefest.

I'll take it!

 

[EnglishRed]

Looking up the game where Xavi Valero got substituted at half time for us (Chesterfield 2-Wrexham 4 January 2005) there was some good trivia. Juan Ugarte got 4 goals that day. "The last 'visiting' player to score four goals at Chesterfield was Wrexham's Billy Ashcroft in a 6-0 win at Saltergate in the old Third Division on 11 September 1976."

So we need to make it a hattrick when we play at your place. Either Mullin or Hyde, I dont mind which

 

[WhoWasFone]

Looking up the game where Xavi Valero got substituted at half time for us (Chesterfield 2-Wrexham 4 January 2005) there was some good trivia. Juan Ugarte got 4 goals that day. "The last 'visiting' player to score four goals at Chesterfield was Wrexham's Billy Ashcroft in a 6-0 win at Saltergate in the old Third Division on 11 September 1976."

So we need to make it a hattrick when we play at your place. Either Mullin or Hyde, I dont mind which

I'm surprised you can remember anything you guys did in the league as it was so long ago.

 

[CaliforniaGull]

Doubt this will really help much but I have compiled a database of all the National League players to have appeared in a game or more this season, and tracked certain stats. Why? Life in America is bleak, I guess. Anyway, since I have all this data, I have subsequently started grading players on a scale of 0-100. It's more like 80-99 because I've decided arbitrarily that 80 is the minimum standard for this level and Paul Mullin (99) needs some room to grow.

I've then averaged out each team's player ratings across all the players they have used this season. And that will help us identify who the movers and shakers are. A few notes to consider: I'm pulling the ratings out me arse to start with, then using things like starts, goals, assists, clean sheets, age and previous history to somewhat fine tune the ratings of each player. Which means it's always evolving each game.

This necessarily means player ratings are somewhat biased by their current performance, but not entirely, so it is not completely circular in trying to work out who had the easiest run. Okay, so with that out the way, and for those who skipped all the text above, here is a table of teams ordered by rated strength:

TEAM	POS	AGE	RAT		Used
Chesterfield	1	27.4	86.2	Kabongo Tshimanga (SC) - 92	18
Notts County	4	26.2	85.5	Callum Roberts (AM) - 96	17
Wrexham	8	26.4	85.3	Paul Mullin (SC) - 99	20
Boreham Wood	5	28.9	85.1	Nathan Ashmore (GK) - 92	16
Stockport	11	26.0	85.0	Paddy Madden (SC) - 95	21
Dagenham	2	26.6	84.8	Paul McCallum (SC) - 93	18
Grimsby	3	25.2	83.9	Luke Waterfall (DC) - 87	19
Solihull	7	25.7	83.6	Joe Sbarra (AM) - 88	19
Bromley	12	26.2	83.3	Michael Cheek (SC) - 93	19
Halifax	6	24.7	83.1	Matt Warburton (AM) - 86	19
Yeovil	9	23.3	83.1	Luke Wilkinson (DC) - 86	16
Eastleigh	18	25.2	82.9	Ben House (SC) - 85	16
Woking	14	26.6	82.9	Jordan Mcguire-Drew (MR) - 85	16
Weymouth	10	24.8	82.9	Josh McQuoid (AM) - 86	16
Altrincham	15	27.7	82.6	Ryan Colclough (ML) - 86	18
Torquay	13	25.6	82.6	Connor L-Evans (AM) - 89	19
Southend	19	25.7	82.5	Steve Arnold (GK) - 86	20
Aldershot	21	23.7	82.4	Lewis Kinsella (DL) - 85	17
Maidenhead	16	24.5	82.4	Sam Barratt (MR) - 88	19
Wealdstone	17	25.4	82.4	Jerome Okimo (DC) - 84	17
Barnet	22	25.3	82.1	Serhat Tasdemir (MR) - 83	19
King's Lynn	20	23.6	82.0	Junior Morais (SC) - 84	17
Dover	23	25.0	81.4	Koby Arthur (AM) - 84	21

So using the team rating data, we can make inferences about who had the hardest and easiest opening fixture list. Away games ought to be harder than home games, I reckon it is about 10% harder, so I add that to the ratings for away games. Add all the ratings up and then divide by games played, and produce this list, easiest to hardest:

Solihull	85.44
Grimsby	86.27
Notts County	86.44
Torquay	86.94
Halifax	86.96
Chesterfield	87.07
Yeovil	87.08
Eastleigh	87.15
King's Lynn	87.22
Weymouth	87.43
Wealdstone	87.51
Maidenhead	87.62
Bromley	87.64
Boreham Wood	87.83
Southend	87.97
Dagenham	88.06
Stockport	88.31
Dover	88.40
Wrexham	88.50
Altrincham	88.58
Aldershot	88.86
Barnet	89.13
Woking	89.60

And there you have it. I'm wasting my life.

 

[GTFCfish]

I find it hard to believe ours is second easiest when 3 of our 6 games played were against Stockport Torquay and Wrexham.
Ok Stockport and Torquay haven’t started as they would’ve liked but they will still always be seen as tough games IMO.

 

[Son of Cod]

It's more like 80-99 because I've decided arbitrarily that 80 is the minimum standard for this level and Paul Mullin (99) needs some room to grow.

Plenty of room for Paul Mullin (99) to grow inside Luke Waterfall's pocket should he ever feel like spending some more time there.

 

[WhoWasFone]

Its all a nonsense anyway, Chesterfield play a mid table Wrexham fairly shortly, if they win that, is that just another "easy" win?

 

[MimmaGTFC]

How can anyone say that we have had the easiest start? We've played big spending Stockport away, Torquay away, who finished second last season, and everyone's favourite Wrexham in our first six games.

Is that easy?

 

[CaliforniaGull]

I think it's shaken out that way because you have played four home games and only two away games. It's all pretty marginal anyway, but another way to look at easy/hard the fixtures are how relatively strong Grimsby are compared to the rest of the division. Or put another way, based on this information, I'll be a lot more worried about this season as a Torquay fan than any of the other teams on the "easy" end!

 

[MimmaGTFC]

Our first game was Woking away, but it was cancelled, which distorts the home away numbers.

 

[GTFCfish]

Our first game was Woking away, but it was cancelled, which distorts the home away numbers.

It was Bromley away.

 

[Gladders]

Jesus, now the Grimsby fans are the ones complaining because it shows us having an easy start?

He already said it's based on how teams have done so far. Torquay and Stockport may have looked difficult on paper but let's be honest they have both been shite so they were easy starts. ( And we blew it by only taking a point from Stockport).

 

[B2TF]

I find it hard to believe ours is second easiest when 3 of our 6 games played were against Stockport Torquay and Wrexham.
Ok Stockport and Torquay haven’t started as they would’ve liked but they will still always be seen as tough games IMO.

Au contraire- it EXPLAINS it, chuck. And the idea that some teams are ALWAYS tough, even when they're shit, oh deary me.

 

[B2TF]

How can anyone say that we have had the easiest start? We've played big spending Stockport away, Torquay away, who finished second last season, and everyone's favourite Wrexham in our first six games.

Is that easy?

Because "big spending" means nothing if it's money down the drain, and last season's form is meaningless, sides failing in the play-offs are notoriously fragile the following season. Basically you're arguing your start was tough because you say so, in the face of more sensible arguments. You fish fuckers have become a strange lot, I don't remember you being like this last time you were here, GTFC and Son of Cod used to have a sense of humour- maybe that little bit of "success" went to your heads, you need to remember that triumph and disaster are illusory and to treat them both the same. Chuck.

 

[EnglishRed]

How can anyone say that we have had the easiest start? We've played big spending Stockport away, Torquay away, who finished second last season, and everyone's favourite Wrexham in our first six games.

Is that easy?

Tough games on paper before the season started. As it turns out Stockport are in dissaray, Torquay haven't replaced all the talent who left on the summer and we are a brand new team.

That said our home game against Woking looked like an 'easy' game based on last season, and they turned out to look pretty decent.

 

[#Beebot]

Doubt this will really help much but I have compiled a database of all the National League players to have appeared in a game or more this season, and tracked certain stats. Why? Life in America is bleak, I guess. Anyway, since I have all this data, I have subsequently started grading players on a scale of 0-100. It's more like 80-99 because I've decided arbitrarily that 80 is the minimum standard for this level and Paul Mullin (99) needs some room to grow.

I've then averaged out each team's player ratings across all the players they have used this season. And that will help us identify who the movers and shakers are. A few notes to consider: I'm pulling the ratings out me arse to start with, then using things like starts, goals, assists, clean sheets, age and previous history to somewhat fine tune the ratings of each player. Which means it's always evolving each game.

This necessarily means player ratings are somewhat biased by their current performance, but not entirely, so it is not completely circular in trying to work out who had the easiest run. Okay, so with that out the way, and for those who skipped all the text above, here is a table of teams ordered by rated strength:

TEAM	POS	AGE	RAT		Used
Chesterfield	1	27.4	86.2	Kabongo Tshimanga (SC) - 92	18
Notts County	4	26.2	85.5	Callum Roberts (AM) - 96	17
Wrexham	8	26.4	85.3	Paul Mullin (SC) - 99	20
Boreham Wood	5	28.9	85.1	Nathan Ashmore (GK) - 92	16
Stockport	11	26.0	85.0	Paddy Madden (SC) - 95	21
Dagenham	2	26.6	84.8	Paul McCallum (SC) - 93	18
Grimsby	3	25.2	83.9	Luke Waterfall (DC) - 87	19
Solihull	7	25.7	83.6	Joe Sbarra (AM) - 88	19
Bromley	12	26.2	83.3	Michael Cheek (SC) - 93	19
Halifax	6	24.7	83.1	Matt Warburton (AM) - 86	19
Yeovil	9	23.3	83.1	Luke Wilkinson (DC) - 86	16
Eastleigh	18	25.2	82.9	Ben House (SC) - 85	16
Woking	14	26.6	82.9	Jordan Mcguire-Drew (MR) - 85	16
Weymouth	10	24.8	82.9	Josh McQuoid (AM) - 86	16
Altrincham	15	27.7	82.6	Ryan Colclough (ML) - 86	18
Torquay	13	25.6	82.6	Connor L-Evans (AM) - 89	19
Southend	19	25.7	82.5	Steve Arnold (GK) - 86	20
Aldershot	21	23.7	82.4	Lewis Kinsella (DL) - 85	17
Maidenhead	16	24.5	82.4	Sam Barratt (MR) - 88	19
Wealdstone	17	25.4	82.4	Jerome Okimo (DC) - 84	17
Barnet	22	25.3	82.1	Serhat Tasdemir (MR) - 83	19
King's Lynn	20	23.6	82.0	Junior Morais (SC) - 84	17
Dover	23	25.0	81.4	Koby Arthur (AM) - 84	21

So using the team rating data, we can make inferences about who had the hardest and easiest opening fixture list. Away games ought to be harder than home games, I reckon it is about 10% harder, so I add that to the ratings for away games. Add all the ratings up and then divide by games played, and produce this list, easiest to hardest:

Solihull	85.44
Grimsby	86.27
Notts County	86.44
Torquay	86.94
Halifax	86.96
Chesterfield	87.07
Yeovil	87.08
Eastleigh	87.15
King's Lynn	87.22
Weymouth	87.43
Wealdstone	87.51
Maidenhead	87.62
Bromley	87.64
Boreham Wood	87.83
Southend	87.97
Dagenham	88.06
Stockport	88.31
Dover	88.40
Wrexham	88.50
Altrincham	88.58
Aldershot	88.86
Barnet	89.13
Woking	89.60

And there you have it. I'm wasting my life.

Great work. Could we see some of the detailed player data? For example, have you got a list of top 20/bottom 20 players to share with us?

 

[GTFCfish]

Sides failing in the play-offs are notoriously fragile the following season.

Ok Chuck.

 

[GTFCfish]

GTFC and Son of Cod used to have a sense of humour.

I do still have a sense of humour but you just seem a lot more annoying than when we were last down here.

 

[Optipez]

Because "big spending" means nothing if it's money down the drain, and last season's form is meaningless, sides failing in the play-offs are notoriously fragile the following season. Basically you're arguing your start was tough because you say so, in the face of more sensible arguments. You fish fuckers have become a strange lot, I don't remember you being like this last time you were here, GTFC and Son of Cod used to have a sense of humour- maybe that little bit of "success" went to your heads, you need to remember that triumph and disaster are illusory and to treat them both the same. Chuck.

We've twice been relegated after play off seasons, I think you're right, there's often a hangover. In both cases the teams had run their course and needed rebuilding which we didn't do well. Last season was also a hangover from the previous year, we lost three of our four top scorers for different reasons and had to change manager and struggled until the last month or so. I also think teams often carry the last season's form on, Daggers, Chesterfield and us all finished well last season.

 

[CaliforniaGull]

Great work. Could we see some of the detailed player data? For example, have you got a list of top 20/bottom 20 players to share with us?

Sure, here's the current top 20:

PLAYER	TEAM	AGE	POS	RAT	PLA	SUB	GLS	ASS
Paul Mullin	Wrexham	26	SC	99	6	0	3	2
Callum Roberts	Notts County	24	AM	96	6	1	4	2
Ben Tozer	Wrexham	31	DC	95	6	0	0	0
Paddy Madden	Stockport	31	SC	95	7	0	0	1
Paul McCallum	Dagenham	28	SC	93	7	0	4	2
Michael Cheek	Bromley	30	SC	93	5	0	6	0
Ruben Rodrigues	Notts County	25	AM	93	6	1	2	1
Kabongo Tshimanga	Chesterfield	24	SC	92	7	0	7	0
Nathan Ashmore	Boreham Wood	31	GK	92	7	0	0	0
Jake Hyde	Wrexham	31	SC	91	6	0	3	0
Josh Rees	Boreham Wood	27	MC	90	7	0	2	1
Emmanuel Oyeleke	Chesterfield	28	MC	90	4	1	2	0
John Rooney	Stockport	30	AM	90	7	0	3	0
Scott Quigley	Stockport	29	SC	90	1	0	0	0
George Carline	Chesterfield	28	DR	89	4	2	2	3
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans	Torquay	24	AM	89	5	1	2	1
Will Wright	Dagenham	24	DC	88	7	0	3	3
Joe Sbarra	Solihull	22	AM	88	7	0	7	1
Matt Robinson	Dagenham	27	MC	88	7	0	2	2
Ben Barclay	Stockport	24	DC	88	7	0	0	0

Top 20 based on Goals+Assists+Wins (+Clean Sheets for GK and DC only):

PLAYER	TEAM	AGE	POS	RAT	PLA	SUB	GLS	ASS	WIN	CS
Gavin Gunning	Chesterfield	30	DC	87	7	0	1	2	5	5
Kabongo Tshimanga	Chesterfield	24	SC	92	7	0	7	0	5	-
Will Wright	Dagenham	24	DC	88	7	0	3	3	5	1
Billy Waters	Halifax	26	SC	86	7	0	6	2	4	-
Paul McCallum	Dagenham	28	SC	93	7	0	4	2	5	-
Joe Sbarra	Solihull	22	AM	88	7	0	7	1	3	-
Scott Loach	Chesterfield	33	GK	87	7	0	0	1	5	5
Callum Roberts	Notts County	24	AM	96	6	1	4	2	4	-
Kyle Cameron	Notts County	24	DC	87	7	0	2	2	4	2
John McAtee	Grimsby	22	AM	86	5	1	3	2	5	-
George Carline	Chesterfield	28	DR	89	4	2	2	3	4	-
Matt Robinson	Dagenham	27	MC	88	7	0	2	2	5	-
Luke Waterfall	Grimsby	31	DC	87	5	1	1	0	5	3
Kyle Wootton	Notts County	24	SC	87	7	0	5	0	4	-
Jamal Fyfield	Boreham Wood	32	DC	86	7	0	1	0	4	4
Myles Weston	Dagenham	33	ML	86	4	3	2	2	5	-
Josh Walker	Dagenham	23	SC	86	6	1	4	0	5	-
Alex Hunt	Grimsby	21	MC	86	6	0	1	3	5	-
Andrew Dallas	Solihull	22	SC	86	6	1	3	3	3	-
Paul Mullin	Wrexham	26	SC	99	6	0	3	2	3	-

I'm less keen to share the lower scale because the lowest ranked players are purely down to my gut feeling and/or ignorance. Those on 80 are almost exclusively youngsters who have made brief appearance so far this season (e.g. Dan Martin and Marcin Brzozowski of Torquay) and consequently haven't done anything of note (and who could turn out to be amazing), Dover players that will definitely score against Torquay if I name them, and obvious shite like Christian Dibble of Wrexham.

 

[CaliforniaGull]

Bonus primarily for Grimsby fans, players with a 100% records who have played in at least two games:

PLAYER	TEAM	AGE	POS	RAT	PLA	SUB	GLS	ASS	WIN
Erico Sousa	Grimsby	26	MR	85	5	0	0	2	5
Jeff King	Chesterfield	25	DR	87	3	1	0	0	4
Ryley Towler	Grimsby	19	DC	83	3	0	0	0	3
Joey Jones	Dagenham	27	MC	84	3	0	0	0	3
Harry Phipps	Dagenham	22	MC	81	1	2	0	0	3
Max Wright	Grimsby	23	MR	82	0	3	1	0	3
Will Bapaga	Grimsby	18	MR	82	2	0	0	0	2
Edwin Essel	Grimsby	18	SC	80	0	2	0	0	2
Alex Bradley	Yeovil	22	MC	81	0	2	0	0	2
Alex Whittle	Chesterfield	28	DL	82	0	2	0	0	2

So, to Maidenhead, not point showing up if Sousa is playing on Saturday.

 

[B2TF]

I do still have a sense of humour but you just seem a lot more annoying than when we were last down here.

I think anyone will tell you that I haven't changed a bit, since day 1.

 

[B2TF]

Ok Chuck.
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The exceptions that serve to prove the rule.