Who really had the easiest start?

chief

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Lovely generosity. I assume you'll lay down and let us put 10 past you going by the amount of generalised bollocks we've copped during our stint!
If OneDecentLester hadn't called me out by my username the other day without tagging me we might have, but instead we'll just play out a 0-0 borefest.
 

EnglishRed

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Looking up the game where Xavi Valero got substituted at half time for us (Chesterfield 2-Wrexham 4 January 2005) there was some good trivia. Juan Ugarte got 4 goals that day. "The last 'visiting' player to score four goals at Chesterfield was Wrexham's Billy Ashcroft in a 6-0 win at Saltergate in the old Third Division on 11 September 1976."

So we need to make it a hattrick when we play at your place. Either Mullin or Hyde, I dont mind which
 

WhoWasFone

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Looking up the game where Xavi Valero got substituted at half time for us (Chesterfield 2-Wrexham 4 January 2005) there was some good trivia. Juan Ugarte got 4 goals that day. "The last 'visiting' player to score four goals at Chesterfield was Wrexham's Billy Ashcroft in a 6-0 win at Saltergate in the old Third Division on 11 September 1976."

So we need to make it a hattrick when we play at your place. Either Mullin or Hyde, I dont mind which
I'm surprised you can remember anything you guys did in the league as it was so long ago.
 
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Doubt this will really help much but I have compiled a database of all the National League players to have appeared in a game or more this season, and tracked certain stats. Why? Life in America is bleak, I guess. Anyway, since I have all this data, I have subsequently started grading players on a scale of 0-100. It's more like 80-99 because I've decided arbitrarily that 80 is the minimum standard for this level and Paul Mullin (99) needs some room to grow.

I've then averaged out each team's player ratings across all the players they have used this season. And that will help us identify who the movers and shakers are. A few notes to consider: I'm pulling the ratings out me arse to start with, then using things like starts, goals, assists, clean sheets, age and previous history to somewhat fine tune the ratings of each player. Which means it's always evolving each game.

This necessarily means player ratings are somewhat biased by their current performance, but not entirely, so it is not completely circular in trying to work out who had the easiest run. Okay, so with that out the way, and for those who skipped all the text above, here is a table of teams ordered by rated strength:

TEAMPOSAGERATUsed
Chesterfield127.486.2Kabongo Tshimanga (SC) - 9218
Notts County426.285.5Callum Roberts (AM) - 9617
Wrexham826.485.3Paul Mullin (SC) - 9920
Boreham Wood528.985.1Nathan Ashmore (GK) - 9216
Stockport1126.085.0Paddy Madden (SC) - 9521
Dagenham226.684.8Paul McCallum (SC) - 9318
Grimsby325.283.9Luke Waterfall (DC) - 8719
Solihull725.783.6Joe Sbarra (AM) - 8819
Bromley1226.283.3Michael Cheek (SC) - 9319
Halifax624.783.1Matt Warburton (AM) - 8619
Yeovil923.383.1Luke Wilkinson (DC) - 8616
Eastleigh1825.282.9Ben House (SC) - 8516
Woking1426.682.9Jordan Mcguire-Drew (MR) - 8516
Weymouth1024.882.9Josh McQuoid (AM) - 8616
Altrincham1527.782.6Ryan Colclough (ML) - 8618
Torquay1325.682.6Connor L-Evans (AM) - 8919
Southend1925.782.5Steve Arnold (GK) - 8620
Aldershot2123.782.4Lewis Kinsella (DL) - 8517
Maidenhead1624.582.4Sam Barratt (MR) - 8819
Wealdstone1725.482.4Jerome Okimo (DC) - 8417
Barnet2225.382.1Serhat Tasdemir (MR) - 8319
King's Lynn2023.682.0Junior Morais (SC) - 8417
Dover2325.081.4Koby Arthur (AM) - 8421

So using the team rating data, we can make inferences about who had the hardest and easiest opening fixture list. Away games ought to be harder than home games, I reckon it is about 10% harder, so I add that to the ratings for away games. Add all the ratings up and then divide by games played, and produce this list, easiest to hardest:

Solihull85.44
Grimsby86.27
Notts County86.44
Torquay86.94
Halifax86.96
Chesterfield87.07
Yeovil87.08
Eastleigh87.15
King's Lynn87.22
Weymouth87.43
Wealdstone87.51
Maidenhead87.62
Bromley87.64
Boreham Wood87.83
Southend87.97
Dagenham88.06
Stockport88.31
Dover88.40
Wrexham88.50
Altrincham88.58
Aldershot88.86
Barnet89.13
Woking89.60

And there you have it. I'm wasting my life.
 

GTFCfish

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I find it hard to believe ours is second easiest when 3 of our 6 games played were against Stockport Torquay and Wrexham.
Ok Stockport and Torquay haven’t started as they would’ve liked but they will still always be seen as tough games IMO.
 

Son of Cod

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It's more like 80-99 because I've decided arbitrarily that 80 is the minimum standard for this level and Paul Mullin (99) needs some room to grow.
Plenty of room for Paul Mullin (99) to grow inside Luke Waterfall's pocket should he ever feel like spending some more time there.
 

WhoWasFone

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Its all a nonsense anyway, Chesterfield play a mid table Wrexham fairly shortly, if they win that, is that just another "easy" win?
 

MimmaGTFC

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How can anyone say that we have had the easiest start? We've played big spending Stockport away, Torquay away, who finished second last season, and everyone's favourite Wrexham in our first six games.

Is that easy?
 
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I think it's shaken out that way because you have played four home games and only two away games. It's all pretty marginal anyway, but another way to look at easy/hard the fixtures are how relatively strong Grimsby are compared to the rest of the division. Or put another way, based on this information, I'll be a lot more worried about this season as a Torquay fan than any of the other teams on the "easy" end!
 

MimmaGTFC

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Our first game was Woking away, but it was cancelled, which distorts the home away numbers.
 

Gladders

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Jesus, now the Grimsby fans are the ones complaining because it shows us having an easy start?

He already said it's based on how teams have done so far. Torquay and Stockport may have looked difficult on paper but let's be honest they have both been shite so they were easy starts. ( And we blew it by only taking a point from Stockport).
 

B2TF

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I find it hard to believe ours is second easiest when 3 of our 6 games played were against Stockport Torquay and Wrexham.
Ok Stockport and Torquay haven’t started as they would’ve liked but they will still always be seen as tough games IMO.
Au contraire- it EXPLAINS it, chuck. And the idea that some teams are ALWAYS tough, even when they're shit, oh deary me. :ffs: :ffs: :fl::ds:
 

B2TF

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How can anyone say that we have had the easiest start? We've played big spending Stockport away, Torquay away, who finished second last season, and everyone's favourite Wrexham in our first six games.

Is that easy?
Because "big spending" means nothing if it's money down the drain, and last season's form is meaningless, sides failing in the play-offs are notoriously fragile the following season. Basically you're arguing your start was tough because you say so, in the face of more sensible arguments. You fish fuckers have become a strange lot, I don't remember you being like this last time you were here, GTFC and Son of Cod used to have a sense of humour- maybe that little bit of "success" went to your heads, you need to remember that triumph and disaster are illusory and to treat them both the same. Chuck. :ds:
 

EnglishRed

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How can anyone say that we have had the easiest start? We've played big spending Stockport away, Torquay away, who finished second last season, and everyone's favourite Wrexham in our first six games.

Is that easy?

Tough games on paper before the season started. As it turns out Stockport are in dissaray, Torquay haven't replaced all the talent who left on the summer and we are a brand new team.

That said our home game against Woking looked like an 'easy' game based on last season, and they turned out to look pretty decent.
 

#Beebot

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Doubt this will really help much but I have compiled a database of all the National League players to have appeared in a game or more this season, and tracked certain stats. Why? Life in America is bleak, I guess. Anyway, since I have all this data, I have subsequently started grading players on a scale of 0-100. It's more like 80-99 because I've decided arbitrarily that 80 is the minimum standard for this level and Paul Mullin (99) needs some room to grow.

I've then averaged out each team's player ratings across all the players they have used this season. And that will help us identify who the movers and shakers are. A few notes to consider: I'm pulling the ratings out me arse to start with, then using things like starts, goals, assists, clean sheets, age and previous history to somewhat fine tune the ratings of each player. Which means it's always evolving each game.

This necessarily means player ratings are somewhat biased by their current performance, but not entirely, so it is not completely circular in trying to work out who had the easiest run. Okay, so with that out the way, and for those who skipped all the text above, here is a table of teams ordered by rated strength:

TEAMPOSAGERATUsed
Chesterfield127.486.2Kabongo Tshimanga (SC) - 9218
Notts County426.285.5Callum Roberts (AM) - 9617
Wrexham826.485.3Paul Mullin (SC) - 9920
Boreham Wood528.985.1Nathan Ashmore (GK) - 9216
Stockport1126.085.0Paddy Madden (SC) - 9521
Dagenham226.684.8Paul McCallum (SC) - 9318
Grimsby325.283.9Luke Waterfall (DC) - 8719
Solihull725.783.6Joe Sbarra (AM) - 8819
Bromley1226.283.3Michael Cheek (SC) - 9319
Halifax624.783.1Matt Warburton (AM) - 8619
Yeovil923.383.1Luke Wilkinson (DC) - 8616
Eastleigh1825.282.9Ben House (SC) - 8516
Woking1426.682.9Jordan Mcguire-Drew (MR) - 8516
Weymouth1024.882.9Josh McQuoid (AM) - 8616
Altrincham1527.782.6Ryan Colclough (ML) - 8618
Torquay1325.682.6Connor L-Evans (AM) - 8919
Southend1925.782.5Steve Arnold (GK) - 8620
Aldershot2123.782.4Lewis Kinsella (DL) - 8517
Maidenhead1624.582.4Sam Barratt (MR) - 8819
Wealdstone1725.482.4Jerome Okimo (DC) - 8417
Barnet2225.382.1Serhat Tasdemir (MR) - 8319
King's Lynn2023.682.0Junior Morais (SC) - 8417
Dover2325.081.4Koby Arthur (AM) - 8421

So using the team rating data, we can make inferences about who had the hardest and easiest opening fixture list. Away games ought to be harder than home games, I reckon it is about 10% harder, so I add that to the ratings for away games. Add all the ratings up and then divide by games played, and produce this list, easiest to hardest:

Solihull85.44
Grimsby86.27
Notts County86.44
Torquay86.94
Halifax86.96
Chesterfield87.07
Yeovil87.08
Eastleigh87.15
King's Lynn87.22
Weymouth87.43
Wealdstone87.51
Maidenhead87.62
Bromley87.64
Boreham Wood87.83
Southend87.97
Dagenham88.06
Stockport88.31
Dover88.40
Wrexham88.50
Altrincham88.58
Aldershot88.86
Barnet89.13
Woking89.60

And there you have it. I'm wasting my life.

Great work. Could we see some of the detailed player data? For example, have you got a list of top 20/bottom 20 players to share with us?
 

GTFCfish

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Sides failing in the play-offs are notoriously fragile the following season.
Ok Chuck. :bg:
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Optipez

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Because "big spending" means nothing if it's money down the drain, and last season's form is meaningless, sides failing in the play-offs are notoriously fragile the following season. Basically you're arguing your start was tough because you say so, in the face of more sensible arguments. You fish fuckers have become a strange lot, I don't remember you being like this last time you were here, GTFC and Son of Cod used to have a sense of humour- maybe that little bit of "success" went to your heads, you need to remember that triumph and disaster are illusory and to treat them both the same. Chuck. :ds:
We've twice been relegated after play off seasons, I think you're right, there's often a hangover. In both cases the teams had run their course and needed rebuilding which we didn't do well. Last season was also a hangover from the previous year, we lost three of our four top scorers for different reasons and had to change manager and struggled until the last month or so. I also think teams often carry the last season's form on, Daggers, Chesterfield and us all finished well last season.
 
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Great work. Could we see some of the detailed player data? For example, have you got a list of top 20/bottom 20 players to share with us?
Sure, here's the current top 20:

PLAYERTEAMAGEPOSRATPLASUBGLSASS
Paul MullinWrexham26SC996032
Callum RobertsNotts County24AM966142
Ben TozerWrexham31DC956000
Paddy MaddenStockport31SC957001
Paul McCallumDagenham28SC937042
Michael CheekBromley30SC935060
Ruben RodriguesNotts County25AM936121
Kabongo TshimangaChesterfield24SC927070
Nathan AshmoreBoreham Wood31GK927000
Jake HydeWrexham31SC916030
Josh ReesBoreham Wood27MC907021
Emmanuel OyelekeChesterfield28MC904120
John RooneyStockport30AM907030
Scott QuigleyStockport29SC901000
George CarlineChesterfield28DR894223
Connor Lemonheigh-EvansTorquay24AM895121
Will WrightDagenham24DC887033
Joe SbarraSolihull22AM887071
Matt RobinsonDagenham27MC887022
Ben BarclayStockport24DC887000

Top 20 based on Goals+Assists+Wins (+Clean Sheets for GK and DC only):

PLAYERTEAMAGEPOSRATPLASUBGLSASSWINCS
Gavin GunningChesterfield30DC87701255
Kabongo TshimangaChesterfield24SC9270705-
Will WrightDagenham24DC88703351
Billy WatersHalifax26SC8670624-
Paul McCallumDagenham28SC9370425-
Joe SbarraSolihull22AM8870713-
Scott LoachChesterfield33GK87700155
Callum RobertsNotts County24AM9661424-
Kyle CameronNotts County24DC87702242
John McAteeGrimsby22AM8651325-
George CarlineChesterfield28DR8942234-
Matt RobinsonDagenham27MC8870225-
Luke WaterfallGrimsby31DC87511053
Kyle WoottonNotts County24SC8770504-
Jamal FyfieldBoreham Wood32DC86701044
Myles WestonDagenham33ML8643225-
Josh WalkerDagenham23SC8661405-
Alex HuntGrimsby21MC8660135-
Andrew DallasSolihull22SC8661333-
Paul MullinWrexham26SC9960323-

I'm less keen to share the lower scale because the lowest ranked players are purely down to my gut feeling and/or ignorance. Those on 80 are almost exclusively youngsters who have made brief appearance so far this season (e.g. Dan Martin and Marcin Brzozowski of Torquay) and consequently haven't done anything of note (and who could turn out to be amazing), Dover players that will definitely score against Torquay if I name them, and obvious shite like Christian Dibble of Wrexham.
 
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Bonus primarily for Grimsby fans, players with a 100% records who have played in at least two games:

PLAYERTEAMAGEPOSRATPLASUBGLSASSWIN
Erico SousaGrimsby26MR8550025
Jeff KingChesterfield25DR8731004
Ryley TowlerGrimsby19DC8330003
Joey JonesDagenham27MC8430003
Harry PhippsDagenham22MC8112003
Max WrightGrimsby23MR8203103
Will BapagaGrimsby18MR8220002
Edwin EsselGrimsby18SC8002002
Alex BradleyYeovil22MC8102002
Alex WhittleChesterfield28DL8202002

So, to Maidenhead, not point showing up if Sousa is playing on Saturday.
 

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