Carlisle v Hartlepool (last day)

shoddycollins

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Posting this up now... bit early for a match thread but there is a possibility worth discussing, unlikely yet far from impossible.

This is the situation at the bottom of the league with 5 games remaining. (instead of points totals, I've just put each club's distance from the top of the relegation zone)

York 6
Mansfield 6
Carlisle 3
Hartlepool 1
------------------------
Tranmere 0
Cheltenham -2


So at the moment Carlisle are 3 points ahead of Tranmere and Hartlepool are 1 point ahead. Carlisle and Tranmere have been 3 points apart for a little while now, they're both equally shit, so it's entirely possible they'll still be 3 points apart with 1 game to play.

Hartlepool gained a lot of momentum to get out of the relegation zone. They maybe don't have the same momentum now their task is staying out of the relegation zone but you'd think if any of those teams is going to gain some points on the others then it's Hartlepool.

Let's say Hartlepool gain a couple of points on Tranmere and Carlisle, so either they win when the others only manage a draw, or they draw a couple of games where the others lost, but otherwise have similar results. Say Cheltenham haven't closed that gap to Tranmere, that means they're down already, and if York and Mansfield are still more than 3 points clear then they're safe by this point too, which means we could have a last day looking like this.

Carlisle 3
Hartlepool 3
------------------------
Tranmere 0

You can see what I'm getting at here. Carlisle and Hartlepool play each other and a draw will see them both safe and relegate Tranmere. If Tranmere still have the better goal-difference by this point then they shoud in theory be in with a chance of survival, all they need is to beat Bury and hope Carlisle and Hartlepool don't draw.

Of course if the two teams colluded together to arrange a draw (happened in a world cup group stage once and caused a huge scandal) then there would be grounds for the FL to take disciplinary action, but it's unlikely any sort of collusion would be required. Both teams would know the situation, they'd both be playing for a draw and they'd both know that trying to score would be risky as it might encourage the other team to try and score too. Could be a very cagey affair, and a highly unusual atmosphere and the fans pray for their teams to just not try anything risky.

Would this be unfair on Tranmere? I don't know. If no actual match-fixing takes place then both teams are entitled to play for a draw, nobody's cheating or being dishonest. Both teams will be setting their stalls out not to concede and you can't prevent the players from behaving differently due to the knowledge that as long as nobody tries to score a goal, everyone's alright. Arguably Tranmere would only have themselves to blame for letting it come to this, and though their fans would have every right to feel aggrieved, and it would undoubtedly cause a sensation, at the end of the day it is what it is, self-preservation rules.

It's unlikely but as I say, not inconceivable that the league could end like this. As for York an Mansfield; York don't look like being involved on the final day, Mansfield could potentially be, and would be interesting if they were also 3 points above Tranmere, reducing the relegation battle to a two-way between Mansfield and Tranmere (Tranmere again having the goal-difference advantage) but that would require all three clubs to win an extra game each while Mansfield continue to lose, so it's less likely.

A similar scenario would be if Carlisle, Hartlepool and Tranmere were all on the same points going into the last day. If Bury start to thrash Tranmere, then Carlisle and Hartlepool will be back in a situation where, assuming Tranmere have no way back into their game, a draw will see both survive.
 

Pogogacy

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There was potential for a similar situation towards the end of the 2012/13 season when it was looking possible that we would go into our final game at Dagenham with both teams needing a draw to guarantee safety. As it transpired, only we needed a point to guarantee safety, whereas Dagenham needed to win.

We ended up winning 1-0, but both teams survived as Barnet lost at Northampton.
 

Pliny Harris

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Hope to get to Tranmere for the Bury game there. It may be a fixture where both teams need three points to avoid relegation or to be automatically promoted. Then of course if Tranmere end up in the Conference it'd be one of the key games for the Shaymen next season.
 

cufc17

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Could be a massive attendance if there is anything riding on this game. Would be mayhem if one side is relegated on the day, as Pools will bring a large away following. Hopefully that doesn't happen, and both teams survive but I don't think either will be mathematically safe by then.
 

Glasshalffullpools

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Your assuming of course over the course of us getting these points we haven't bettered the goal difference , which is effectively half a point. We haven't tonked anyone for years , Accrington at home could break that, us winning 5-0 and you losing a couple by 2 or 3 could change things yet again
 

hellogregory

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Your assuming of course over the course of us getting these points we haven't bettered the goal difference , which is effectively half a point. We haven't tonked anyone for years , Accrington at home could break that, us winning 5-0 and you losing a couple by 2 or 3 could change things yet again
You really are a glass half full poolie.
 

shoddycollins

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Your assuming of course over the course of us getting these points we haven't bettered the goal difference , which is effectively half a point. We haven't tonked anyone for years , Accrington at home could break that, us winning 5-0 and you losing a couple by 2 or 3 could change things yet again
Well we're only talking about a couple of extra points you'd have gained on Tranmere should that situation arise, which might only be a couple of draws or it could be a win. Tranmere have a better goal difference than us both, primarily because they haven't been tonked as often as we have, and that situation could continue over the remaining games, one or both of us could be tonked on a weekend where Tranmere only lose 1-0. If you're gonna start winning games 5-0 then there's a decent chance you won't actually be in this situtation come the last day.
 

1884 Belmont

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If it goes that far and things play out as you describe, then we couldn't really complain if both sides played for a draw. HOWEVER, I genuinely don't think Ronnie would do that considering he is managing a Tranmere XI on the 4th May (2 days later) at Prenton Park for Ian Goodison's testimonial.

I imagine Ronnie will try to win to save Hartlepool first and foremost, but also with the hope that you losing keeps us up too.
 

shoddycollins

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If it goes that far and things play out as you describe, then we couldn't really complain if both sides played for a draw. HOWEVER, I genuinely don't think Ronnie would do that considering he is managing a Tranmere XI on the 4th May (2 days later) at Prenton Park for Ian Goodison's testimonial.

I imagine Ronnie will try to win to save Hartlepool first and foremost, but also with the hope that you losing keeps us up too.

That might be what Ronnie wants, but I think the knowledge that just keeping things nice and safe should guarantee survival would probably affect player performances.
 

Glasshalffullpools

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Aha! See Mr Gregory you can back your team and be positive
 

T.A

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If Tranmere need a win on the last day v us then they'll get one.
 

Grecian O'Grecian

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Meh, I don't really care.

Neither have a 'right' to stay up and neither are 'too big' to go down.

Would rather see Tranmere stay up than either one of them.
 

Grecian O'Grecian

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Nothing specific to this thread.

Just you always get those that say it would be a travesty if so and so drop to the conference as they're (to this division) a big club.
 

shoddycollins

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Nothing specific to this thread.

Just you always get those that say it would be a travesty if so and so drop to the conference as they're (to this division) a big club.
Well we've been there done that so we can't really use the 'too big to go down' argument... seem to remember we bumped into you while we were there :) Wouldn't be a travesty for football as a whole, circle of life and all that. Really all three clubs being talked about on this thread are smaller than Bristol Rovers.
 

hellogregory

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Meh, I don't really care.

Neither have a 'right' to stay up and neither are 'too big' to go down.

Would rather see Tranmere stay up than either one of them.
No one is too big to go down.
 

EricSabin

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There was potential for a similar situation towards the end of the 2012/13 season when it was looking possible that we would go into our final game at Dagenham with both teams needing a draw to guarantee safety. As it transpired, only we needed a point to guarantee safety, whereas Dagenham needed to win.

We ended up winning 1-0, but both teams survived as Barnet lost at Northampton.

I enjoyed that day hugely. Sell out crowd, sun beating down, about to go into the playoffs, relegating Barnet. Brill.
 

shoddycollins

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The prospect of a 'draw saves both' game seems pretty unlikely now that the bottom end looks like this.

Carlisle 6
Mansfield 6
Hartlepool 1
------------------
Tranmere 0
Cheltenham -2
 

Duffy

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I'm not sure how Hartlepool went on that mini run watching them today, thought they were pretty toothless in all honesty given they were playing against 10 men. Could go either way for them now. Bounce back or after 1 point from the last 9 the confidence drops again and they go backwards.
 

shoddycollins

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Thing with Hartlepool is that for most of the time since Moore took over he was doing well to just keep the gap between them and teams above them from widening as it had been doing under Murray. They might not have been very good, but at least under Moore they were no worse than the teams above them, all of whom were shite.

Then they won 5 in a row through sheer willpower and Moore's own canny tactical ability it seems.

Now they're back to what they were. Poor, but no worse than the teams around them. Only difference is now they're just above the relegation zone rather than being adrift inside it.

I think they'll stay up.
 

hellogregory

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I just think in a winner takes all game, Moore will be able to get that little bit more out of his players than Curle will out of our spineless bunch of bone idle losers.
 

Glasshalffullpools

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4-4 draw , best game ever , both stay up, Hellogregory cracks a smile! ....
 

Glasshalffullpools

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Ah now it's if! See even you find it hard to keep up the doom and gloom, go on admit it, your pleased with your team at the moment!
 

shoddycollins

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In what way would that possibly be funny?
I'm guessing for the sheer improbability of two teams getting successive relegations.

Funny really that out of this division, us and Tranmere are the two who were highest placed in the Football league last season. I mean obviously teams that come down often don't do so well following relegation but still.
 

hellogregory

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Ah now it's if! See even you find it hard to keep up the doom and gloom, go on admit it, your pleased with your team at the moment!
I openly changed it to if after the weekend. Check back if you think I'm bullshitting.

I openly admitted in another thread that we now have been given a lifeline and have a chance.

I still think with our remaining fixtures we'll go down, but at least now we've put ourselves in a position that gives us a chance, providing one of pools & tranny fails to get 6 points.
 

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