Promotion odds

UppaTowen_ITFC

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That said, I think Ipswich will probably challenge for the top six, but it's not a given, as they've been fancied for the last three seasons and haven't made it above ninth yet.
As a Town fan, I think we’re probably just about the right price. Arguably Sheffield Wednesday should be favs but I’d still say at 5/1, we’re about right. We’re a much more organised side under McKenna. If we could actually defend at the start of the season when averaging 2 goals scored a game but still being bottom 8 in October, we’d have been top 6. Unfortunately that bad start killed us.

Then McKenna came in and it was something like 12 clean sheets in 19 games or something equally impressive - including a club record of 7 games without conceding.

The two crucial things for our season are:
- Keeping hold of Morsy (miles too good for this league) and Edmundson (best CB I’ve seen at the club in 15 years).
- Being able to cope when we lose Burns to Wales for the World Cup.

We’re going for the more selective approach to signings this season with quality over quantity and if we can get a proven striker in and perhaps get Celina back on loan again (though why he keeps coming to us over the championship I have no idea), there’s enough there to make me think we should be top 2. It obviously is going to look biased suggesting we’re the right favs but my genuine opinion is that it’s just about right. As someone who works in the betting industry, I have to say at the prices, 5/1 is exactly how I’d price us up. I’d have Sheffield Wednesday next at 11/2 and Peterborough third favs at 9/1 if it had been me. But there we go.
 
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Hopefully DC has improved his contacts and overall management since with us as L1 was his undoing long term.

We did well for a few years at L1 level but that was based mostly on his NL/L2 promotion teams. Once our best players were sold to bigger clubs/walked on frees, he just didn’t have the experience or contacts to really compete at this level and it took us a good few years to clear out the dead wood tbh.

His contract management was also probably one of his biggest downfalls (if it was down to him) as these players brought in were on long contracts and big wages of 4k+ a week.

It’s ironically what started the demise of the club to L2. We were losing millions a year and GC turned an average team into promotion candidates but wasn’t given the budget to press on and he left. Then Garner was brought in to bring a more sustainable style of management and we all know the rest.

I’ll keep a keen eye on DC for the next few years, he will probably do well for 1/2 years at L1, but what will he do after that?
I think this is really unfair on DC personally.

His contract management was fine when he first came in. Players were given contracts and pay to prove themselves and earn more of the same when offered another. It was only when we started losing better players that silly contracts started being handed out to stop situations like Taylor. The fans were happy we were tight with contracts and then unhappy when we were losing players due to those contracts. The club changed up and sought to secure fees for players but ultimately did so with the wrong players. It happens, it's football. And shock, the fans were unhappy at this too.

DC was ultimately sold the dream of what JB is seemingly getting now IMO. He turned down Leeds and was linked with numerous other Championship clubs because he is a talented manager. The club said we wouldn't have to sell our best players, and we would build xyz and we ended up selling our best players and building nothing. We sold all our best players with DC, and the money he was given wasn't anywhere near enough. You can't replace Matty Taylor. You can't replace Billy Bodin. Not at that time anyway. Both in their prime and miles ahead of a lot of League 1 players. There's no doubt we've just given Evans a massive contract - That could backfire, then will we blame JB for handing out stupid contracts?

The club was losing millions of pounds because it was poorly run. You only have to look at the massive strides we've taken off the pitch in the last 18-24 months to see how much of a better place we are in. That's down to TG, and it affords the club to back JB more.

Momentum is a big thing, especially in DC sides. We rode a big momentum wave with a team largely built in the conference all the way to almost challenging for the L1 playoffs if we never lost our top scorer. He's a good manager and led us to our highest finish in god knows how many years. It's important to remember how young he is, 5 promotions now is it?

GC didn't turn an average team into promotion candidates, JCH carried that team. GC had very little to do with it except be the manager at the time. His man-management was awful as we saw with how he handled Lines', and furthermore his management was terrible as we saw with Mansfield. Putting BG and changing the entire approach of that team was wrong, we were playing ugly football but it was working and had us in a good spot. Garner would have got a lot more credit had he came in and finished the season like that and then changed it up but he never.
 

leedsvaliant

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Apparently, DC and Andy Crosby (and the owners)want another promotion within the next 3 or 4 years. I know that's what every team will say and I think that's ambitious but with the right recruitment and upgrading the squad each year then I hope we'll at the very least be challenging. Something just feels right about the development of the whole club at the moment. The owners are ensuring that every player feels valued, they're building a purpose built player's area that overlooks the training ground, they stay in the best hotels, they are given everything they need to perform at their best, they ensure that every player is looked after, which makes a huge difference and are literally rebuilding the club from rock bottom. I can see DC overtaking Rudge as an all time legend with a fair wind. 5 promotions and he's only in his early 40s.
 

valefan16

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Apparently, DC and Andy Crosby (and the owners)want another promotion within the next 3 or 4 years. I know that's what every team will say and I think that's ambitious but with the right recruitment and upgrading the squad each year then I hope we'll at the very least be challenging. Something just feels right about the development of the whole club at the moment. The owners are ensuring that every player feels valued, they're building a purpose built player's area that overlooks the training ground, they stay in the best hotels, they are given everything they need to perform at their best, they ensure that every player is looked after, which makes a huge difference and are literally rebuilding the club from rock bottom. I can see DC overtaking Rudge as an all time legend with a fair wind. 5 promotions and he's only in his early 40s.
We’ve been used to be terribly run, you have to remember just 3 years ago players had cold showers and were fed left over pies from the weekend!

So it’s great to see the development of the club and like Carol said she didn’t just want a promotion with nothing to build, it had to be with the club doing forward on and off the field in tandem. Hence the new training facilities, even taking the Cryochamber etc.

DC left Walsall because he was forced to lose his best players and given nothing to replace hence we got him. It’s light years from where it was when Carol and Kevin first came in.

DC is already legendary purely because he’s won a promotion. Only one man has achieved that since the halcyon days under John Rudge and that’s Micky Adams so it’s not hard to hit that status with us as we’ve been so starved of success but with a five year deal he really has a chance to become a great.

He does seem to have that loyalty as well as long as your true to him.

It’s just nice to actually feel positive about the future which if we are honest we’ve not been able to be for over two decades now.

Just got to enjoy the ride whilst it’s good
 

Gassy

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I think this is really unfair on DC personally.

His contract management was fine when he first came in. Players were given contracts and pay to prove themselves and earn more of the same when offered another. It was only when we started losing better players that silly contracts started being handed out to stop situations like Taylor. The fans were happy we were tight with contracts and then unhappy when we were losing players due to those contracts. The club changed up and sought to secure fees for players but ultimately did so with the wrong players. It happens, it's football. And shock, the fans were unhappy at this too.

DC was ultimately sold the dream of what JB is seemingly getting now IMO. He turned down Leeds and was linked with numerous other Championship clubs because he is a talented manager. The club said we wouldn't have to sell our best players, and we would build xyz and we ended up selling our best players and building nothing. We sold all our best players with DC, and the money he was given wasn't anywhere near enough. You can't replace Matty Taylor. You can't replace Billy Bodin. Not at that time anyway. Both in their prime and miles ahead of a lot of League 1 players. There's no doubt we've just given Evans a massive contract - That could backfire, then will we blame JB for handing out stupid contracts?

The club was losing millions of pounds because it was poorly run. You only have to look at the massive strides we've taken off the pitch in the last 18-24 months to see how much of a better place we are in. That's down to TG, and it affords the club to back JB more.

Momentum is a big thing, especially in DC sides. We rode a big momentum wave with a team largely built in the conference all the way to almost challenging for the L1 playoffs if we never lost our top scorer. He's a good manager and led us to our highest finish in god knows how many years. It's important to remember how young he is, 5 promotions now is it?

GC didn't turn an average team into promotion candidates, JCH carried that team. GC had very little to do with it except be the manager at the time. His man-management was awful as we saw with how he handled Lines', and furthermore his management was terrible as we saw with Mansfield. Putting BG and changing the entire approach of that team was wrong, we were playing ugly football but it was working and had us in a good spot. Garner would have got a lot more credit had he came in and finished the season like that and then changed it up but he never.
I’m not really sure how your post makes sense at times. Name one player DC have a long contract to that was already in his squad? The problem was that he gave them to players he didn’t know.

I agree he wasn’t given the money or budget to push on, neither was GC for some reason.

DC and the club signed the wrong players on long contracts, glad we can agree on that. I love DC, but that isn’t a case of “ah well that’s life” - that’s just bad management.

I don’t really understand how you can say GC had little to do with a team facing relegation, who were suddenly facing promotion under his leadership. JCH was awesome, but the day GC left we became relegation candidates again. Yet some how he had “nothing to do with it”? In our final 3 years in L1 the only time we were successful was under GC - that is a fact..
 

cookiemonster

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As a Town fan, I think we’re probably just about the right price. Arguably Sheffield Wednesday should be favs but I’d still say at 5/1, we’re about right. We’re a much more organised side under McKenna. If we could actually defend at the start of the season when averaging 2 goals scored a game but still being bottom 8 in October, we’d have been top 6. Unfortunately that bad start killed us.

Then McKenna came in and it was something like 12 clean sheets in 19 games or something equally impressive - including a club record of 7 games without conceding.

The two crucial things for our season are:
- Keeping hold of Morsy (miles too good for this league) and Edmundson (best CB I’ve seen at the club in 15 years).
- Being able to cope when we lose Burns to Wales for the World Cup.

We’re going for the more selective approach to signings this season with quality over quantity and if we can get a proven striker in and perhaps get Celina back on loan again (though why he keeps coming to us over the championship I have no idea), there’s enough there to make me think we should be top 2. It obviously is going to look biased suggesting we’re the right favs but my genuine opinion is that it’s just about right. As someone who works in the betting industry, I have to say at the prices, 5/1 is exactly how I’d price us up. I’d have Sheffield Wednesday next at 11/2 and Peterborough third favs at 9/1 if it had been me. But there we go.
What are the rules on players at the world cup? I thought part of the point of starting early is that clubs can postpone games more easily than in normal seasons if players are taking part in that middle eastern circus/shitshow?
 

Si Robin

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The rules are the same as any international break. If a club has 3 internationals (at any level) then they can request postponement of the League fixture.
 

kieran_vale

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As a Town fan, I think we’re probably just about the right price. Arguably Sheffield Wednesday should be favs but I’d still say at 5/1, we’re about right. We’re a much more organised side under McKenna. If we could actually defend at the start of the season when averaging 2 goals scored a game but still being bottom 8 in October, we’d have been top 6. Unfortunately that bad start killed us.

Then McKenna came in and it was something like 12 clean sheets in 19 games or something equally impressive - including a club record of 7 games without conceding.

The two crucial things for our season are:
- Keeping hold of Morsy (miles too good for this league) and Edmundson (best CB I’ve seen at the club in 15 years).
- Being able to cope when we lose Burns to Wales for the World Cup.

We’re going for the more selective approach to signings this season with quality over quantity and if we can get a proven striker in and perhaps get Celina back on loan again (though why he keeps coming to us over the championship I have no idea), there’s enough there to make me think we should be top 2. It obviously is going to look biased suggesting we’re the right favs but my genuine opinion is that it’s just about right. As someone who works in the betting industry, I have to say at the prices, 5/1 is exactly how I’d price us up. I’d have Sheffield Wednesday next at 11/2 and Peterborough third favs at 9/1 if it had been me. But there we go.

There goes my completely unrealistic pipe-dream of us bringing Sam back home to the Vale at some point. What a cracking player he has developed into. Will always be the biggest mark against Micky Adams time at Vale the way he treated him and resulted in him leaving for Chesterfield.
 

GEORGE

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I’m not really sure how your post makes sense at times. Name one player DC have a long contract to that was already in his squad? The problem was that he gave them to players he didn’t know.

I agree he wasn’t given the money or budget to push on, neither was GC for some reason.

DC and the club signed the wrong players on long contracts, glad we can agree on that. I love DC, but that isn’t a case of “ah well that’s life” - that’s just bad management.

I don’t really understand how you can say GC had little to do with a team facing relegation, who were suddenly facing promotion under his leadership. JCH was awesome, but the day GC left we became relegation candidates again. Yet some how he had “nothing to do with it”? In our final 3 years in L1 the only time we were successful was under GC - that is a fact..
But the football under GC was awful. Its just that Garner was an awful manager and a big head.
 

Gassy

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But the football under GC was awful. Its just that Garner was an awful manager and a big head.
I was entertained - but I can see what you’re saying. However to say he had nothing to do with our success is madness IMO
 

UppaTowen_ITFC

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There goes my completely unrealistic pipe-dream of us bringing Sam back home to the Vale at some point. What a cracking player he has developed into. Will always be the biggest mark against Micky Adams time at Vale the way he treated him and resulted in him leaving for Chesterfield.
Rumoured that Wigan are after him (used to play for them) but we wouldn’t sell for anything less than 3 million but we frankly don’t need the money anyway so he’s just not for sale. He’s massive for us. Watching him in league 1 last year was stupid when he’d have been our best midfielder for most of the last 20 years that we were in the championship.
 

leedsvaliant

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Rumoured that Wigan are after him (used to play for them) but we wouldn’t sell for anything less than 3 million but we frankly don’t need the money anyway so he’s just not for sale. He’s massive for us. Watching him in league 1 last year was stupid when he’d have been our best midfielder for most of the last 20 years that we were in the championship.
I thought he was decent at Vale but I never anticipated he would become that good. It just goes to show how some players develop and others don't.
 

UppaTowen_ITFC

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I thought he was decent at Vale but I never anticipated he would become that good. It just goes to show how some players develop and others don't.
Most incredible thing about him is his consistency. I go home and away and I genuinely can’t remember a single game where he wasn’t in our top 3 players.

We’ve got him, Wes Burns and George Edmundsen and all three are just enormous to us.
 

FGR Stroud

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With a turnover of seven teams each year in League 1 it is greater than all others
So credit to those regular mid-table teams who hang on year after year.
I did a quick check of years when current teams 1st played in present table:

1655999586470.png


ps If any errors please let me know politely and I'll amend.
 

thewwfc

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As many others have said these odds are meaningless before squads have shaped up a bit more, but I’d think “top half but not near promotion faves” is about right for us.

We’ve lost a few key players on frees - Stockdale, our 1st choice goalie, Stewart, a starting CB…and whilst Akinfenwa was mainly restricted to cameos in the last campaign he was a hugely influential figure in the team.

So there’s lots of question marks there, and we certainly need to sign well if we’re even to have another shot at playoffs, but Ainsworth’s signing record is decent, and we always seem to do late deals (as frustrating as that might be sometimes!) so I’m not worried.
 

Floreat Salopia

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With a turnover of seven teams each year in League 1 it is greater than all others
So credit to those regular mid-table teams who hang on year after year.
I did a quick check of years when current teams 1st played in present table:

View attachment 17349

ps If any errors please let me know politely and I'll amend.
We’ve been back in League 1 since 2015 (a year before Oxford) and Fleetwood were here a year before us, 2014 for them.

This will be our 8th consecutive season in League 1. WABLO status confirmed.
 

FGR Stroud

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We’ve been back in League 1 since 2015 (a year before Oxford) and Fleetwood were here a year before us, 2014 for them.

This will be our 8th consecutive season in League 1. WABLO status confirmed.
Table amended. Thanks.
1656070894543.png
 
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DippyDon

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Plymouth came back up in 2020 following relegation.

Charlton have been down here since 2017.

You don't really research much do you
Charlton have been back up and down since then, though I think that was 2020.

Can’t disagree with the research comment. I posted about Accrington ages ago and that’s still wrong in the new table.
 

BarrieOwl

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Charlton have been back up and down since then, though I think that was 2020.

Can’t disagree with the research comment. I posted about Accrington ages ago and that’s still wrong in the new table.
Yeah just realised they beat Sunderland in the play off final didn't they
 

FGR Stroud

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Plymouth came back up in 2020 following relegation.

Charlton have been down here since 2020 not 2021

You don't really research much do you
Table amended.
Thanks to all for correct input. Much appreciated.
 
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FGR Stroud

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Accrington is still wrong. They won promotion in 2018 with Luton, Wycombe and Coventry. The four that came up in 2019 were Lincoln, Bury, MK and Tranmere.
Cheers. Will amend.
When I started this project all I had was bits and pieces, so am pleased with all the help I've been offered to get the table correct.
And as I said on 1st post that I'm in admiration of the regular mid-table teams to remain in division for so many years when there is so much turnover.
 

FGR Stroud

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Having created havoc with previous table I thought I'd try my luck again. (Well it is the close season with no football and little to do).
This time is a table of when current EFL1 teams were founded. [Some like Fleetwood were perhaps in existence many years previous but had four reformations since 1908.]
Also some of the teams changed their names after being founded: for instance Sheffield Wednesday started off as The Wednesday.
1656075265323.png


At a later date I might check which teams were started by clergymen.
I know FGR and Bolton are two.
 
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Marked Ox

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I can add where Headington United/Oxford United were founded which was the Britannia Pub in Headington which is opposite the old London Road End entrance. It now has a Blue Plaque commemorating the event.
 

BarrieOwl

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We were originally a cricket club in 1820, formed as a football in 1867 then adopted the Sheffield prefix in 1929.

Going on formation dates our resident Vale lot will love how their near neighbours try to make themselves appear older.
 

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